[Sportsline] Tony Mejia's Southwest Predictions

I know a lot of people have issues with Mejia, and frankly, I do too, but his predictions for the Rockets in this column realistically seem about right (50-32). On the optimistic side, I think he's off by about 5 games (55-27). I believe the Rockets will finish less than 5 games behind the Spurs or Mavs. He's right: whoever comes out of this division will win the championship. His early forcast, haunting reality, x-factor, likely rotation, and four-casting are all on target (except the non-mentioning of Billy V-Span). Also, his SW Division Honor Roll places Yao and Tracy as the best center and guard, respectively, and Wells as the best sixth man. I'd have to agree with that, except I think SuperNovak will make the most contribution, not just in the division, but the whole association. Novak will either win the ROY, or be robbed of it to Roy or Foye.


http://www.sportsline.com/nba/preseason/previews/western/southwest

3. Houston Rockets
Projected finish: 50-32

2006-07 theme: Erase all memories of 2005-06. The Rockets were jinxed by injuries and quickly became the league's biggest disappointment. What? Huh? What season? Being able to plausibly deny it ever happened is a good place for the team to start.

Early forecast: The Rockets will be on the road often in the season's first week, but at least the competition isn't all that impressive. Games in Utah, Oklahoma City, Memphis and Milwaukee are all winnable.

Haunting reality: Every time McGrady winces, Rockets fans' hearts will stop. Unfortunately, odds are good he'll miss at least a stretch of action. It's going to be important for his teammates not fold like a futon when that happens.

Saving grace: Yao really seemed to turn the corner before he broke his foot at the end of last season. If he picks up where he left off, Houston will have the most feared legitimate center in the Western Conference anchoring the post. To do that, he has to keep the intensity level on high.

X-factor: Bonzi Wells could provide a serious boost for a team that can use all the scrappy, rugged scorers it can get its hands on. Wells dominated the Spurs last postseason and feels he's got something to prove after pricing himself out of everybody's range as a free agent.

Likely rotation: Rafer Alston will run the point after a decent first run at the position last season. The Rockets are still hoping Bobby Sura will return from injury and make a contribution at some point, but in the meantime John Lucas III is at their disposal. Between McGrady, Wells, Luther Head and Kirk Snyder, the Rockets are set on the wing. Shane Battier can swing over there as well, but might spend most of his time as the starting power forward. It's very likely he'll finish games at that spot. Juwan Howard will back up Battier and Yao, with Dikembe Mutombo making his usual impact defensively.

Four-casting: Battier's effectiveness swinging between positions will play a critical role in Houston's success. Yao's toe problems won't be an issue. McGrady's back problems will be. Rookie Steve Novak will remind Houston of former fan favorite Matt Bullard.

Coach-speak: "We just plan on trying to put as much into the year as we can and then how we go about the process will determine the results and we'll live with those results as long as we put as much as we can into the process." -- Jeff Van Gundy.


MEJIA's SOUTHWEST DIVISION HONOR ROLL
First team
F Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
F Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
C Yao Ming, Houston Rockets
G Chris Paul, New Orleans/Okla. City Hornets
G Tracy McGrady, Houston Rockets
Second team
F Josh Howard, Dallas Mavericks
F David West, New Orleans/Okla. City Hornets
C Tyson Chandler, New Orleans/Okla. City Hornets
G Jason Terry, Dallas Mavericks
G Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs

Top Rookie: Rudy Gay, Memphis Grizzlies Top Sixth Man: Bonzi Wells, Houston Rockets

 

I just noticed how insanely awesome the SW Division first team is:

MEJIA's SOUTHWEST DIVISION HONOR ROLL
First team
F Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
F Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
C Yao Ming, Houston Rockets
G Chris Paul, New Orleans/Okla. City Hornets
G Tracy McGrady, Houston Rockets

I think this team can match up against any division's first team in the NBA. That would be a pretty sweet contest actually, a round-robin style tourney between the first teams of all the divisions. Here are some first teams in my opinion that I think are top-notch. Feel free to change players. How do you guys think we the SW would match up?

Pacific:
F F Shawn Marion, Phoenix Suns
F Ron Artest, Sacramento Kings
C Elton Brand, Los Angeles Clippers
G Steve Nash, Phoenix Suns
G Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
***C Amare Stoudemire, Phoenix Suns (if his knee is not shattered)

Central:
F LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
F Jermaine O'Neal, Indiana Pacers
C Ben Wallace, Chicago Bulls
G Chauncey Billups, Detoit Pistons
G Michael Redd, Milwaukee Bucks

Atlantic:
F Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics
GF Vince Carter, New Jersey Nets
FC Chris Bosh, Toronto Raptors
G Jason Kidd, New Jersey Nets
G Allen Iverson, Philadelphia 76ers

Southeast and Northwest are weaker, so I won't even put them up against us.