Well, you forgot the "best" earlier. Roy pitched twice the innings. 78% of his starts were of the quality variety, 63% for Roger. No contest.
here're the only numbers that conern me in this paticular debate: career OB% dunn: .380; lee: .340 career OPS with runners on dunn: .913; lee: .846 total HRs ('04-'06) dunn: 126 (1,672 ABs); lee: 100 (1,833 ABs) age at the '07 trade deadline dunn: 27; lee: 31 '07-'08 salary dunn: $11 and 13M; lee: likely more than $13M dunn is a younger, cheaper, more productive hitter. the K's (while alarming) don't concern me because of his power and the # of walks he draws (he had more than berkman last year). they both made, roughly, 435 outs last year; how is irrelevant, imo, based on their overall production. i'd much rather have dunn.
Factor in that we need to have a power hitting right hander if Morgan doesn't bounce back, but I tend to agree. I like Dunn more. The important difference is that Lee is a free agent.
Thank you. Never said Lee/Soriano/Captain Crunch/Willy ****ing Mays was better or worse than Dunn, Ric. That's not the arguement. Are the Astros better off with: Dunn or Lee/Hirsh/Qualls/YoungsterX, given that a) the difference b/t Lee's & Dunn's production is not extreme; b) Lee's v. Dunn's salaries will be a near wash over the next 5 years (say 5-10M either way); c) (since you've brought up "cheapness" wrt Dunn) the young cheap pitching you're trading away has to be replaced from this offseason's FA crop, and veteran starters are routinely the most overpriced commodity in the market, which pretty much negates any perceived salary advantage for Dunn. d) the Astros are in desperate need of a RH middle-of-the-order bat. e) Dunn's numbers away from the launching pad that is Great American Ballpark are significantly lower (~960 OPS home vs. ~860 OPS away).
not to change the subject but....this is from Insider (not sure if it was discussed) Houston, we have a problem? Oct 25 - According to The New York Post, Biggio is expected to bridge what is currently a financial gap and re-sign with the Astros. However, agent Barry Axelrod said that if matters cannot be worked out fairly, Biggio would seek the 70 hits he needs to reach 3,000 somewhere else. "He said to me that if they don't value me enough and I have to go to St. Louis, Chicago or New York to play on a winner and hit milestones, then I will do it," Axelrod told the newspaper. umm...ill always love ya Bidge...but...buh bye.
That's an agent mouthing off & the never-sensationalist NY Post stirring things up, nothing more. There's about a .0001% chance of Biggio playing somewhere else next year.
That's just an agent trying to build leverage. The Astros want him back and he wants to go the astros but the agent has to at least threaten to bolt so he can gain more leverage in negotiations and stake out some extra dineros. Nothing new here, he'll resign and join the stros.
option A, adam dunn. a 60-point swing in OPS is pretty extreme. so, too, is the age difference. i'd rather pay $11-15M a year for dunn, ages 27-31, than $13-??M a year for lee, ages 31-35. see bagwell, jeff to learn more about the dangers of paying for past performance and how quickly past performance can fall off a cliff. why can't it be replaced with.... other young cheap pitchers? while not an abundance, the astros' pitching well ain't dry, either. i place next-to-no value on unproven commodities when facing off with proven commodities. i know what i'm gonna get from dunn next year; i have NO idea what i'm gonna get from hirsh, buchholz, et al. besides, if they resign pettitte, you're talking about a 3-4 and a 4-5. while i won't openly dismiss the importance of those guys, the astros made it to the playoffs two years in a row with the likes of munro, wandy and astacio getting a lot of starts. agreed. big deal. berkman had a smiliar H/A split this year. dunn was on a 35-homer pace on the road this year; he's not by any means a product of his park. and it's not like MMP is the grand canyon.
To hell with Dunn over Lee. Look at the batting avg and strikeouts. Last thing we need is more strikeouts. Strikeouts don't drive in runs from 3rd, or move runners. All the Astros did this yr. with runners on is strikeout and pop up and make unproductive outs, which was what led to our demise. Dunn is feast or famine, we need guys who will will make productive outs when they don't get hits. Dunn will not do that. Someone earlier said - Sign Lee, sign Woody Williams and trade for Dontrelle. We may be even able to deal Ensberg and someone else for Linebrink. If we do that, you can start making NL Championship rings and selling WS tickets.
dunn was more productive last year, he's 4 years younger and, based on the deal lee turned down from milwaukee, cheaper. nothing against lee personally, but he'll be 31 this year. let's say he accepts the deal he rejected from the brewers (4/$48M) - do you really wanna be paying carlos lee $12M/year when he's 34, 35? if he'd take a two-year deal worth $24-30M, coolio. otherwise, i'd have severe reservations.
Although Ric makes a compelling argument for Dunn, this is my first impression every time I think of Dunn. An OBP inflated by walks won't bring in a runner from third, either. If a guy is in an RBI spot in the lineup (4,5,6), the most important number in his stat line, despite what all the rotogeeks have to say or despite his "VORP!!!" or "OPS!!!!" is RBI's. If your job is to drive in runs, and you don't do it, all the walks in the world dont' redeem that. The one caveat to that argument that *must* be considered is the OBP of guys in front of him. You can't drive guys in if no one is on base ahead of you.
dunn's career ops with runners on base is .913; with runners is scoring position, it's .897. he is very, very productive with runners on base.
No, Ric, he wasn't. Not by the measure (OPS) you've been using in this thread (890 - .850). As you said...~60 points of OPS is pretty extreme, so 40 points would at least be kinda/sorta extreme then, right? But then you said that a ~100 point swing in H/R OPS over a 4-year span is nothing to be concerned with. So I'm a bit confused. Also, I think you're over-estimating what it will take contract-wise to get Lee signed here. We'll see. I don't see his age at the end of his contract as a *huge* concern, either...and I don't remember your severe reservations over Oswalt's (starting pitcher being a much greater injury risk at those ages than OF/1B) or Berkman's (who's had 1 major injury & shown nagging effects thereafter) deals, which are for more money & cover the same age-range. All long-term contracts are a risk, but if Lee can keep his weight in check (something Dunn has a problem with as well), he hasn't shown a propensity for injury (and your Bagwell comparison is a poor one, I think you'll admit, given that his contract was for 6 years, much more money, it covered his age 33-39 seasons). Probable worst case scenerio? Lee has to move to 1B, and Berkman to LF/RF. That's an equal worry with Dunn (there's already rumbling in Cincy about his weight/work ethic, and his diminishing effectiveness in the OF). And yes, I place a much higher value (much higher than none, at least) on young pitching than you do. Will all/many/most pan out? Nope, but some will, and, again, why give up something when you don't have to? I just don't see the benefit of Dunn over Lee as worth what the likely price in players you'd have to pay. We're not going to convince each other, though, we'll see how it plays out. p.s. Pence is tearing up the AFL league, and has had many good things said about him by the management/coaches/scouts watching the league. Luke Scott better watch out, especially since Pence is a natural in RF and Scott is most definitely not.
OPS is *NOT* a good indicator of performance WRISP!!! Simply because it includes OBP. And while OBP is of significant value when evaluating a hitter, it fails greatly here: runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs. Player A, in 10 PAs, gets 2 hits, 3 fly balls, 3 grounders, and 2 K's. Player B, in 10 PAs, gets 2 hits, 3 K's, 4 walks, and 1 grounder. Player A OBP with runner on 3rd: .200 Player B OBP with runner on 3rd: .600 Player A RBI's: five Player B RBI's: two I'll take Player A every day, and twice on Sunday. If you're in an RBI spot in the order, your job is to drive in runs. OBP is not *nearly* so sexy for a guy, for instance, like Morgan Ensberg, who hit 4-6 most of the year and drew lots of walks but didn't drive anybody in. I'd much rather (and I remember you would rather as well) have seen Mo batting 2nd. Show me Dunn's SLG WRISP, and then we'll know a little better, but that still doesn't account for the sac fly, which is a *huge* part of his job. Bottom line: the modern stat movement tends to downplay the importance of RBI, and think that's utterly ridiculous. You can't win games if guys don't score.
Trading away the farm to get Dunn does not make us better. Signing Lee, keeping the farm and pitching makes us better, cause we can still go out and trade for DWillis. The better we are the more likely Roger will take a second look at us in April. Roy Dontrelle Andy Roger ??? Doesn't really matter
I seriously doubt Dontrelle will be in our rotation, same with Roger. Schmidt, and Woody Williams is a big possibility. I like Dunn's power, but he strikes out to much. Although he does have a high OBP, we don't really need another .250 hitter on our line up. Any more word on Lee coming to Houston?
Forget Dontrelle, I guess my main point is i'd rather trade guys for pitching. Trading a bunch of people for one bat is not gonna make the team a powerhouse hitting club. Even with Lee in the lineup we very well could stink it up at the plate. You have to replace 5 guys to get the production that people on this board are looking for. We can win with pitching, we have proven that. Spend a little and trade a little to get some arms back in the club house. Keep Andy, if he will have us, and upgrade the pitching. The drop off after ROY is huge, and short of replacing half the lineup, the best place to help the team win is with lights out pitching. If that means trade the farm, trade the farm (but don't trade it for a bat - our hitting will still suck).
you’re right; i must have meant career-wise. then again, it WAS yesterday, so who knows where my head was. he had one really bad year on the road (’03, with an OPS of .740; home: .888) and then one just off the charts ridiculous 252-point swing in’05. regardless, dunn’s road OPS since '04 is .859. (higher than lee’s career OPS (.835), btw.) were he ONLY productive at home, i’d be concerned. perhaps, and hopefully. all we know is that he turned down 4/$48M from the beers this year. i like lee; he’s a very good hitter (not $15M good, but…). if the team signs him, i’ll be happy. but let’s not compare him to oswalt and berkman for many reasons. with lee, you beeter maximize your ROI; you don’t want to just pay lee for past performance. his best years have *likely* been elsewhere. any and all deals are a risk, trade or otherwise. i just think dunn’s a better player than lee (or, at least, as good). that’s he’s younger and (right now) cheaper is the difference-maker for me. dunn’s in his prime; lee has likely peaked. he may be this good for 2 or 3 more years… but probably not, and he certainly won’t get better (in theory). dunn has room to grow. if he doesn’t, you’re only on the hook for a year. plus, the Astros need to replenish their core. they need to start integrating proven young talent. right now, it’s berkman and oswalt (neither exactly “young”), and then burke. hell, scott’s older than dunn. over the course of the next year to 2, clemens, pettitte, ausmus and biggio will all be gone, and ensberg/huff, lane, lamb and everett will all be 30+. -- you’re talking about a situation that occurs, roughly, 20 times a year (dunn, in fact, had 20 ABs this year; berkman, 23). so the difference over a 162-game season is (roughly) 6 RsBI. i realize the astros lost a lot of 1-run games, but i don’t think 6 runs over the course of an entire season is going to independently sink a team well, dunn did lead the reds in RsBI this year; it’s not like he drove in 37; guy had 92 after back-to-back 100+ seasons. but the RBI itself is so arbitrary. who’s to say dunn DIDN’T do his job every time, but the runner on third was too slow, or not smart, left too early, the outfielder or catcher made an error, etc. the modern stat movement tries to account for these discrepancies. and OBP is important because the player’s ULTIMATE responsibility is to NOT make an out, killing the rally or ending the inning. and dunn can be counted on to not do that some 40% of the time; that’s impressive and a positive.
