Interesting Fantasy Football Article on Quarterbacks

I clipped this from a FF website. Pretty cool!

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All of these truisms are based on an analysis of the top 20 QB fantasy performances from 1997-2000.


<b>Truism 1</b>
Every year at least 2 QB's in the top 10 will get injured in the following year.

1998
J Elway (1997 ranked #3)
S Mitchell (1997 ranked #10)

1999
S Young (1998 ranked 31)
S McNair (1998 ranked #4)
V Testerverde (1998 Ranked #7)

2000
K Warner (1999 Ranked #1)
B Johnson (1999 ranked #5)


<b>Truism 2</b>
Top 5 Tumble. Every year one top 5 player tumbles for reasons other than just injury.

1998
K Stewart (fell from #2 to #16)

1999.
J Plummer (fell from #5 to #24)

2000
S Beuerline (fell from #2 to #10)


<b>Truism 3</b>
I was surprised with this one. Every year at least two QB's who were not ranked in the top 25 QB's the previous year catapulted themselves to a top 5 QB ranking. (Talk about super sleepers)

1997
K Stewart (improved from unranked to #2)
S McNair (improved from unranked to # 4)

1998
R Cunningham (improved from unranked to #4)
J Plummer (improved to #5)

1999
K Warner (improved from arena ball to #1)
B Johnson (improved from unranked to #4)

2000
D Culpepper (improved from unranked to #1)
J Garcia (improved to #2)
D McNabb (improved to #5)


<b>Truism 4</b>
Only 3-4 Players are able to repeat in the top 10.

1998
Steve Young (#9, #1)
B Favre (#1, #2)
S McNair (#5, #4)

1999
B Favre (#2, #6)
P Manning (#6, #3)

2000
P Manning (#3, #3)
R Gannon (#4, #4)
B Favre (#6, #8)
E Grbac (#10, #6)



Rather than throw stones I'll list my top 20 QB projections for 2001. My predictions will all adhere to the Truisms.

Top 5
Warner (Who is crazy enough to disagree with all the experts)
Manning (I think he is like Favre, the trends say he will always be in the top 10)
Griese (He must stay healthy, I 'm betting he does)
Brooks (Super sleeper Truism #3)
Green (Super sleeper Truism #3) It could also be Couch, or Hasslebeck.

6-10
Favre (He is always in the top 10, and he never gets hurt)
Culpepper (Second year blues, and no R Smith hurt a little bit)
R Johnson (Moulds, and no Flutie give him a good one year)
Garcia (Last year was a career year, Not going to happen two in a row.)
Bledsoe (He always hangs around the top 10, this year he gets in)

10-15
B Johnson (I think Dunn, gets hurt, and that stifles Johnson)
Brunell (Sub par J Smith, and a healthy Taylor mean more run less pass)
Couch (He could surprise but lack of running game will mean more pressure and too many INT's)
Grbac (He threw for over 4,000 yds last year. He will not repeat that)
McNair (If he stays healthy he is top 5, I bet he gets hurt)

15-20
Hasselbeck (He could surprise, but his receivers are aching and he is a first year guy)
McNabb (Stewart went from #2 to #16 in one year. I think McNabb regresses, Truism #2)
Plummer (Boston makes him respectable)
George (Snyder begins to miss B Johnson)
Testerverde (An aging warrior, hangs in for one more year, but the chants for Chad will come late in the year)

What no COLLINS or GANNON!!! (they are my two top ten injury picks. Truism #1)
Manning, Culpepper, Favre, and Garcia are the four that adhere to truism #4


Good luck with your picks