Actually, Channel 2's new storm tracking technology has Ernesto taking a hard left at the Florida panhandle, following the entire Gulf Coast along Alabama and Mississippi, then heading South at New Orleans to re-form into a Category 5 hurricane, then track Northwest to make landfall at Galveston Island.
Check this out: http://image.weather.com/images/maps/pt_BR/tropical/strm5_strike_720x486.jpg This shows the hurricane not coming close to Texas.
Man, where to start with what happened to Ernesto over the weekend? Even before the eventual collapse of the storm the majority of the storms circulation was disrupted by Hispaniola. It was never supposed to even be that close to Hispaniola either but somehow the ridge to the north was alot weaker than they were expecting. It then ran into the southwestern tip of Haiti and the storm became vertically displaced. Seemed to me that the surface circulation kinda got bounced westard while the mid level circulation continued moving nnw across Haiti. It's been making somewhat of a comeback overnight, just in time to run smack into the mountains of Cuba. I'm not sure how well the circulation is going to hold up this time. NHC is still calling for cat 2 possibly 3 somewhere along Florida. It's amazing how far off the NHC's forecasts have been with this storm. Never have I seen a storm so far off even 24 hours out. Pretty much every forecast they've put out on Ernesto has busted. Btw, way to go out on a limb with that forecast, Fat.
I wouldn't be surprised if Ernesto misses Florida completely. It has been on a NW track for the last day at least. If it continues on that path the Bahamas and eastern Florida will have to deal with it. Even if it moves more WNW towards south Florida it will likely be a Cat 1.
I do that all the t....uh, nevermind... I had no idea there was a TS out there...I need to stop watching ESPN all the time...
All the models have shifted slightly west this afternoon, so Ernesto will likely hit near Miami late on Tuesday as a tropical storm, skirt along the eastern portion of Florida and re-emerge over the Atlantic. They are predicting it will re-strengthen into a hurricane and ultimately make landfall around the NC/SC border as a cat 1. The next week to 10 days will be interesting. There is a HUGE mass of dry Saharan air over the Atlantic inhibiting storm formation that should move enough to allow one or two storms to form later this week. The good news is that all the models continue to forecast a weakening and an easterly movement for the Bermuda High, which is what either keeps Atlantic storms moving west or allows them (like Debby) to recurve out to sea. If the Bermuda High does as is forecast, we could have several storms out in the Atlantic that recurve out to sea over the next couple of weeks. For us in Texas, we really have about 4 weeks left of the "real" hurricane season. In fact, Texas has NEVER suffered a major hurricane strike in the month of October and have only had two hurricanes and two tropical storms during that month in recorded history: Jerry (1989/cat 1/Jamaica Beach) Unnamed (1949/cat 2/Freeport) Unnamed (1938/TS/Freeport) Unnamed (1895/TS/Bolivar) In fact, after September 21 (before October 1),there have only been three: Rita (2005/cat 3/Sabine Pass) Unnamed (1941/cat 1/Freeport) Unnamed (1898/TS/Bolivar) So, if we can hold out three more weeks, our chances greatly improve of hurricane-free summer. Plus, the best part, fall is right around the corner. Woot.
What a far cry from last season it seems. And for that matter, this year has been pretty underwhelming based on the predictions forecasters made (probably unnecessary hype I guess). Not that it's a bad thing. Quite good. Last thing the country needs is another monster hurricane ripping up the gulf and smacking into the southern states. Plus I'm just getting used to 2.60 gas again.
Honestly, that is one thing that REALLY irritates me. This isn't to say that storms are horrible and that they can't be devastating. It isn't even a prediction that we won't get a bad ass cat 4 storm rolling in Galveston before the end of this season. But, this idea that (and I'm speaking ONLY of Galveston/Houston here) the doomsday scenario of a major hurricane strolling right up the ship channel is bound to happen is hyperbole. Of course, it COULD happen. But, it is no more likely than us getting a tropical storm Allison, now considered to be the 200 year flood. In fact, the odds of a major storm hitting even the TEXAS coastline (let alone Galveston) are pretty long. Here is a list of every major hurricane that has hit the Texas coastline since the 1880's: Galveston Hurricane (1900/cat 4/Galveston) Unnamed (1909/cat 3/Freeport) Unnamed (1915/cat 3/south of Galveston) Unnamed (1932/cat 4/Galveston) Audrey (1957/cat 4/Sabine Pass) Carla (1961/cat 4/west of Port O'Connor) Alicia (1983/cat 3/west end Galveston Island) Rita (2005/cat 3/Sabine Pass) That's eight major storms in over 125 years and only four major storms to hit the Galveston area in over 125 years. Again, this isn't to say we aren't vulnerable to storms. Of course we are. We're on the Gulf of Mexico. But, to blow it up into this notion that every year we are in for the big one is just nonsense. It's a scare tactic. Be prepared. Get out of the way if necessary. But, the way the media suggests that every storm is potentially the end of life as we know it is just stupid.
Well, every meterologist with any credibility admits that last year was an annomaly, something we probably won't see again for 200 years. No one expected that kind of year. And, to be honest, we still may get to 12 or 14 named storms, which is above the average and will constitute a "busy" season by Atlantic tropical standards. We've had 5 and it is likely we'll get a couple named storms by next week in the Atlantic. Another 7 or 8 named storms between September 1 and October 15 seems pretty reasonable. When forecasters revised their predictions on August 2 (they'll do it again on September 3?), they went down from 15 to 17 and admitted that Florida and the east coast are the most likely targets with the chances of a giant storm like Katrina, Rita or Wilma this year being pretty low. We're not out of the woods yet, but it is a lot less scary when you look at the actual numbers. As long as you stay prepared for the possibility of a storm during hurricane season, you should be fine.
Remember when all of the gas prices got jacked up when the forecasts came out for a busy hurricane season? Thanks a lot.
Totally agree. The folks at the Weather Channel are the worst imho. We all know that to them major hurricanes equals major exposure and major advertisers. That may be fine in a way, but they don't have to scare the crap outta people unnecessarily. Well at last check (5p ET advisory) the max winds are 40; he is hanging on by a string. Let's see how fast it can regain its strength once over open waters again.
