Yeah, remember the championship years? Our guys would always say the same thing after a win. Something along the line of "Dream will get his. Someone else needed to step up. Today it was ______________. Tomorrow it will be someone else." And it was always true. There wasn't a defined third scorer. But whenever someone was getting wide open looks, it was VERY important for that person to knock down the shots. Last year, we missed WAY too many wide open looks. That can't happen.
Here is the breakdown of the 00-01 Lakers. Shaquille O'Neal 28.7 Kobe Bryant 28.5 Derek Fisher 11.5 Rick Fox 9.6 Horace Grant 8.5 Isaiah Rider 7.6 Ron Harper 6.5 Brian Shaw 5.3 Robert Horry 5.2 In the playoffs, when the Lakers went 15-1 (best playoff record ever), no player other than Shaq or Kobe reached 10PPG. 2002-2003 Lakers Kobe Bryant 30.0 Shaquille O'Neal 27.5 Derek Fisher 10.5 Rick Fox 9.0 Devean George 6.9 Robert Horry 6.5 Samaki Walker 4.4 Slava Medvedenko 4.4 Brian Shaw 3.5 1998-1999 Spurs Tim Duncan 21.7 David Robinson 15.8 Sean Elliott 11.2 Mario Elie 9.7 Avery Johnson 9.7 Jaren Jackson 6.4 Malik Rose 6.0 Antonio Daniels 4.7 Steve Kerr 4.4 2002-2003 Spurs Tim Duncan 23.3 Tony Parker 15.5 Stephen Jackson 11.8 Malik Rose 10.4 David Robinson 8.5 Manu Ginobili 7.6 Bruce Bowen 7.1 Steve Smith 6.8 Speedy Claxton 5.8 So we have our two producers or creators as those teams had in Shaq-Kobe or Duncan-Parker or Duncan-DR . In Battier we also have our multi-purpose forward like Elliott, Horry, or Fox. What we are missing are guards like Fisher, Avery J, S Jack, and Elie who we know will play good defense and have consistent offense playing off of Yao and/or Tmac. Thus what matters not are the total points of Alston, Snyder, Head or from our other guards, even less than 10PPG is fine so long as it is effiecient (see Avery J, Fisher, and Elie).
I think when people have been saying third scorer it's more like third offensive threat. I agree it doesn't have to be the same guy every night, but we do need someone other than T-Mac and Yao that can go for 20 on any give night and to wreak havoc on the defense. The idea is that then the defense has pressure on them at all times. Dallas has Terry and Dirk with Josh Howard being the 3rd guy that can go off. The Spurs have Duncan and Parker with Manu capable of going off at any time. The Heat have Shaq and Wade, but have a committee of guys that could be their third threat on a night (Walker, Haslem, Jwill). I think a big worry for me is that we don't have players that create well off the dribble and finish. T-Mac is our main guy for that but he doesn't get to the rim nearly as much as he once did. The Heat, Spurs, Phoenix, Dallas all relentlessly get to the rim and if they don't finish they often get fouled. For the Heat it's almost all Wade, but he gets to the rim at will.
I took that into consideration. I decreased nearly every role players points in my projection. Alston by 2, Head by 2, and Howard by 4. Also Snyder scores 20 pts per 48 minutes and shoots a better percentage than James did in 2004. Battier will get easy looks when teams try to double Yao. His scoring should increase a little. Novak might be a stretch at 6 ppg, but everything else is reasonable.
I'm sick of hearing about how we need a 3rd scorer. We just need to right role players that can hit their shots when the ball isn't going through T-Mac or Yao. The Lakers team that won 3 titles with Shaq/Kobe didn't have a "third scorer", all their role players put in enough points to help win. Can you tell me who the third scorer was on the Championship Bulls teams? Exactly. Same story as the lakers, MJ was surrounded by great role players.
I agree. We 3-4 guys to finish plays created by Yao and Tmac with efficiency, and play some defense. We have one for sure in Battier. If we get 2-3 more from Snyder/Head/VSpan/Alston/JL3/Howard we could be in the mix of things at the end. Just good roles players is all we need.
You guys are more confident than I am. Does anyone really think Tracy and Yao will average nearly 60 pts/game between them like Shaq and Kobe did? I expect more like 48-50. Let's not get our hopes up too high. I'm not sold we have enough players who will effectively score off of Tracy and Yao. Hope I'm wrong. I just have the feeling we are one very good backcourt player away from contending. As it stands now, and IF our team stays healthy, we will have a good record and be fun to watch. But we ARE NOT a contender unless a player or two (outside of our stars) steps up and has a breakthrough year and far exceeds expectations. And forget the championship years in 94 & 95 when building a team for 06/07. Ugly ball doesn't win anymore. Defenses and offenses are completely different now. I'll bet a lot of posters here who weren't hard core fans back then couldn't watch the 7 game Knick series now because it would bore them.
The rockets need a 3rd scorer because they only have 3 good defenders out there that will be playing starter minutes. They can't count on lockdown d to win them clutch games. Yes, if the rockets want to advance they need to emulate the Shaq/Kobe Lakers right now(out of neccessity). But they have no where near proven that they are at that level yet. Yao had a great half of a season, mostly with McGrady out of the lineup. TMac has to prove that he is indeed healthy and that he can do his thing with Yao on the court. Are we doomed not to advance because we haven't gotten a surefire 3rd scorer? No. But the rockets would have been a much safer bet to advance if they had gotten that piece. We are relying way too much on the big 2 right now, and it is not a lock that they deliver in the way we expect them to.
Those averages are misleading because it does not take into account player absenses. By those numbers, it looks like we averaged 106.7 pts per game... when we really only averaged 90.1 ppg. Personally, I think a 15/8 PF is all we need right now, hopefully found in Battier (not really asking for too much of an improvement). Our backcourt, while really unsolidified at this time, should balance itself out during the season and has plenty of scoring potential. Its not really a scorer that we need, but we could use some more scoring...
Boris Diaw is kind of an exception. Well, more of a surprise. He was never a third scoring option until the playoffs
Actually, I do think Yao and T-mac can average nearly 60 pts/game like Shaq and Kobe. Why not? A healthy T-mac is just as good a scorer as Kobe is and Yao has proved last season that he can score when he wants until you find some way to stop him. Who says so-called "ugly ball" doesn't win anymore? Just because one year where defensive power teams like spurs or pistons don't get the title means that ugly ball doesn't win anymore? That's bull. Spurs and Pistons still had a great winning season. One of the main factors Miami won was because they had the better half court offense. And usually, the teams that play "ugly ball" or the slow-down offense, has the better half-court game. The Rockets, past and present, both fit the bill of having a good half-court offense.
IIRC he averaged like 27 pts in that stretch. Or you are talking about the average of the whole season?
I agree. The Rockets are two "solid" starters and one or two decent bench players away from contending. I still don't see enough talent. IMO, this team needs MORE than a third scorer to contend for a title. The real myth is that this team is ready to roll. Not even close. I still don't think they are as good as the 04-05 team that took Dallas to game seven. No Sura (and I still doubt that he is coming back), no James, no Barry, no younger Mutombo, no Padgett, no way this team is as good. I am yet to be convinced that TMac is 100%. Ming's progress may be the only real improvement. With the exception of Battier, a nice addition, the team has regressed. I am not trying to be unnessarily negative, but all the bravado on this board is just unrealistic. Novak, Lucas, Synder, VSpan, et al are totally unproven players. Mutombo will see limited minutes. Alston can hit the side of barn and can't seem to defend anybody. Howard is in his "twilight" years as a player. The idea that TMac and Ming can "carry" this team for 82 games deep into the playoffs is wildly optimistic.
Get Dajuan Wagner. He's Mike James minus 10 years, he's healthy, and he is back to the level he was at before he had to have his colon removed (had colitis). He's also very hungry and that guy is a scoring machine. What do you guys think? http://www.courierpostonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060808/SPORTS/608080361/1002
Whole season. No doubt he'll have some monster stretches again, but with T-Mac back and healthy, and without Yao having done it before, I'd rather not count on him going for 27 a night for a season...but I'll certainly take it. If he can do the 22.3 ppg he averaged last year again then I'd be perfectly happy. That, a healthy T-Mac, and the supporting cast we currently have will definitely get us in the playoffs, and should get us to the 2nd round. We'd still be chasing Dallas, San Antonio and Phoenix, though.
Mike James is an efficient high volume scorer in a PG's body. Wagner is an inefficient high volume scorer in a PG's body.
By looking at just the raw ppg averages, it seems we do have enough firepower. But 2 things to consider. One, the Lakers championship teams featured arguably the two players in the NBA at the time. At the very least, both Shaq and Kobe belong in the top 4-5. Neither T-Mac nor Yao can hold that distinction at the moment. Perhaps they can... and if so, I would indeed be expecting a long playoff run. Two, the Spurs championships were notoriously slow-paced and centered around defense. With the new rules in place, such a style simply cannot work anymore. Even the Spurs themselves are no longer playing the same style they were a few years ago.
Wagner would come off of the bench which means he would not take shots from T-mac or Yao. Name someone on our bench who can get their own shot or at least make a basketball move to free someone else up. He would come at the non-guaranteed minimum while Mike James got midlevel money. It's worth a shot. Look at our backcourt. Someone has to score off the bench. Would rather have Ryan Bowen shooting wide open jumpers because no one can break the defense down? What do we have to lose? Randy Foye sure looks a lot like D. Wagner. Look at his college numbers and he never shot higher than 41%. He went #7 this year.
