Let me begin by saying that I am a big Bob Sura fan. If he is able to come back from his injuries and give the Rockets even 80% of what he gave them in 2004-05, then the team will be much the better. However, this thread deals with the realities of how the Rockets deal with a player in Sura's situation. All postulations in this thread are based on the assumption that Sura CANNOT play and will be out for at least the entire 2006-07 season. Under the CBA, the Rockets will actually benefit MORE with Sura injured and on the roster right now than they would if he retired. While many people on this BBS know about the Disabled Player Exception (DPE, allowing a team to replace a seriously injured player with another player for up to 50% of the injured player's salary), most do not realize that Sura retiring would negate that exception. According to Larry Coon's FAQ, "If a player retires, even for medical reasons, his team does not receive a salary cap exception to acquire a replacement player." http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#53 By keeping Sura on the roster, the Rockets can both (1) hold out hope that Sura can come back, however unlikely and (2) more practically, hang on to the possible DPE for use in free agency or trades. Again, under the CBA, the DPE is actually MORE beneficial to the Rockets in a trade than in free agency. A team with a DPE can sign a free agent for up to 50% of the disabled player's salary. If the team uses the DPE in a trade, however, it can receive back 50% of the disabled player's salary PLUS $100,000 (the 125% rule does not apply to the DPE). Using Sura's estimated 2006-07 salary of ~$3.8M, this would make any DPE the Rockets get for him about $1.9M. They could sign a free agent for up to $1.9M, but could trade for a player making up to $2M. Not a big difference, but given that the free agent crop is so weak (as CD admitted to), the trade angle makes more sense for the Rockets. Now, why "stage" the Sura workout and media session? Many on this BBS were curious about that, including me. I racked my brain and looked into the CBA to find out why. Answer: TIMING. Under the CBA, the DPE can be used to acquire a replacement for a disabled player who will be out for the remainder of that season (if the player is disabled between July 1 and November 30) or the following season (if the player is disabled after November 30). If a player is disabled between July 1 and November 30, the team must acquire the replacement player within 45 days. If the player is disabled between December 1 and June 30, then the team has until October 1 to sign a replacement. If the disabled player comes back sooner than expected, then he may be activated immediately, and the replacement player is not affected. However, if the disabled player comes back before the exception is used, then the exception is lost. What does this mean to the Rockets? Well, if the Rockets publicly put their support behind Sura's comeback (even if it's all in vain), they set themselves up for the DPE down the road. As it stands, the Rockets don't necessarily want the DPE right now. If they take it now, they'll only have 45 days to use it or lose it. However, if the Rockets and Sura wait until December 1 to "give up" on the comeback, this will generate a DPE that the Rockets can use EITHER prior to the trade deadline OR during next summer. Essentially holding a $2M trade exception in their pocket, the Rockets will have even more flexibility for trades in the next 15 months. The staged workout provides both good PR for the Rockets with their fans AND evidence to the league that they are trying in good faith to hold off on application for the DPE. This way, if the Rockets eventually (and finally) apply for the DPE after December 1, they will have a good argument for why they didn't apply earlier. The league doesn't hand out DPEs lightly, so the Rockets need to have good evidence when they apply for one. One added benefit (as noted above) is that, if (1) Sura can't come back, (2) the Rockets apply for and get a DPE from the league, (3) the Rockets trade for a $2M player using a DPE, (4) the team somehow does NOT waive Sura, and (5) Sura somehow is able to come back after the trade, the Rockets get to keep BOTH Sura and the new $2M player. Sorry for the long post, but just thought I'd throw this angle out there. While I know there have been other "Sura Injury" threads, I didn't see this specific issue posted anywhere else. For more information on the DPE, here is the link to Larry Coon's FAQ on the subject: http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#19
The problem is that the league is extremely stingy with Disabled Player Exceptions. And with Sura's injury being more of a "chronic" condition, I don't think that helps the matter. DPE usually occur for major injuries at the time of occurance. Also, we already have a $4.2 million TE, so an additional $2 million exception that functions the same way isn't that big of a bonus. And even if we break into our MLE for Lucas and Novak, that could still leave about $2 million leftover. So an additional $2 million doesn't do much on top since they can't be combined. But if Sura retires for medical reasons, he would completely come off the books one year after his last game, which considering that he's been out for more than a year, would mean he could potentially come off now. That's 4 million less off our payroll this year, and maybe next year as well (I have a suspicion that his final year isn't fully guaranteed. No evidence, just a hunch.) And 4 million more space under the luxury tax. I think it's much better for the Rocket's interest if Sura DID retire. Unless he can come back strong of course. Having him comeback strong and contribute is the best option. Having him retire before the season starts would be next. And having him attempt a comeback play some games, and then retire would be the worst scenario, because we'd have to wait a year until he comes off the cap.
Thanks both to Bimathug and Mcable for your informative posts. After reading both post I would side with aquiring the DPE as it can be used in a trade, where as the MLE is more for signing free agents. We may never use the DPE but if we need it, we'll have it along with the 4.2 TE plus whatevers left of the MLE. That gives us a lot of flexibility and may come in handy at some point. We all know how handy that smaller TE came in acquiring Snyder.
m-cable, your point is well taken. I would respond, however, that the Rockets would most likely use the DPE to either (1) acquire a low-priced player or (2) be packaged in a multi-player trade (or "separate trades" with the same team if required by the CBA) that would involve the Rockets sending players out. Either way, using the DPE would not likely push the Rockets over the luxury tax threshhold. Flexibility is always a good thing; and Sura could always come back later and play out his contract. While this is very unlikely, having Sura and a $2M player sure beats having neither, luxury tax relief be damned! Keep up the good posts, m-cable.
Thanks to both of you (BimaThug, m-cable) for illustrating some of the ramifications of Sura's situation. I find this very interesting and at the same time very confusing. I recently read the CBA with a mind to hopefully understand the financial aspects that go into roster management. I must admit I never realized it was so complex. No wonder they were on the verge of a lockout trying to reach agreement on all these terms. Its a wonder they ever did, but then I guess when there is so much at stake no hurdle is too high. I hope to someday have as good of a handle on this and reading posts from people like you who take the time to 1) do the analysis 2) explain in simpler terms and 3) site the consequences, will surely help me attain that goal. Thanks once again to both of you.
This thread is yet another example of how unique this BBS is. Great job. Yet another possible move in our future. God knows, we need to make more moves!
Thanks, everyone, for the kind words. I'm just doing my part to keep this BBS elevated at its current status as a first-rate message board. Here's hoping the Rockets make another trade soon so that we can end all the mindless speculation on this BBS.
Why not let Sura retire and get 100% of his salary instead of the 50%???? The Rockets should figure out if he's worth his salary or not and then go from there, keeping him if he can play and letting him go if he can't. The DPE is only good if the injury is unexpected. No team would want to keep a player on their roster just so they can claim the DPE. The DPE helps compensate a little for an unexpected injury. sz
The injury does not necessarily have to be "unexpected" for the DPE to be granted. The Rockets are still holding out hope that Sura can play. If he can't, then it will be "unexpected" enough for the Rockets to make a case for the DPE. Also, the Rockets won't get 100% of Sura's salary if he retires. The Rockets are well over the salary cap. If Sura retires, the Rockets get nothing salary cap-wise.
