http://www.82games.com/0506/fairsalary0506.htm Best Values 1. LeBron James (+$24 Million! = $28.8 fair minus $4.6 actual) 2. Dwyane Wade 3. Tayshaun Prince 4. Chauncey Billups 5. Chris Bosh 6. Boris Diaw 7. Kobe Bryant 8. Carmelo Anthony 9. Andre Iguodala 10. Nenad Krstic 11. Elton Brand 12. Yao Ming 13. Chris Paul 14. Josh Howard 15. Michael Redd 16. Luol Deng 17. Ben Wallace 18. Dirk Nowitzki 19. Delonte West 20. Richard Jefferson 21. Dwight Howard 22. Alonzo Mourning 23. Mike James 24. Steve Nash 25. Gilbert Arenas Based on the above list, I'd say Nenad Kristic, Luol Deng, Andre Iguodala, and Delonte West are guys we should target. None are expected to get maximum deals when free agency comes around.
Aside from the stars, Delonte West would be the best player for us from that list but even his price is probably way too high for us.
The problem with Fair Salary is that if you miss game time due to injury or bench, then you will have lower Fair Salary. There is a percentage of how much minutes a player played in team page. It would be great if you can reproduce the same list but with the Fair Salary normalized to 100% play time.
Does it make sense to normalize the salary that way? All else being equal (as far as per-possession performance), a player who plays twice as many minutes as another should get twice the salary. Makes perfect sense to me.
The thing is, that's how much they played and deserved last year. If you are making personnell decision for the future, last year's minutes/games played total may not be a reflection of where you project them to be. A player could have an exceptionally healthy year or an exceptionally unhealthy one. Some players also played a high number of minutes because of injuries to others or lack of team depth while other players could be stuck on the bench because they had too many guys in his spot. For now, I'd rather look at the players +/- and player pair numbers to guess whether the player is having a positive effect on the court.
You might want normalize for people who are injured but not for bench warmers (unless you are a bench warmer like SF3 ) Here is an example, T-Mac was only worth 9.3mil last year because he only played 44%. Do you think we should take 44% as "fair"? In a healthy year, he plays 40min/game. Since he is healthy, we can assume he plays all 82 games. That means you should adjust his playing time to 83%. That means his adjusted fair salary should be 17.54mil instead of 9.3mil last year. It would be a lot of work to do this adjustment for every injured player though but I think it will be more accurate.
Wow i just looked at Chuckie Hayes stats and i realized that if he played 35 mins he would average 10ppg 13rpg 2spg and 1bpg amazing he needs many more mins.
id love to have josh howard on the team, which is the reason i was so high on ronnie brewer as our potential draftee. he hustles his butt off, is a good shooter, very long and thusly is a good defender, can play multiple positions, and can score. he also doesnt need to have the ball to be effective, which is another reason he'd fit on nicely with us
I again checked chucks stats and i think he has huge potential he was 2nd in rebounds per 48 and 12 in steals per 48. Dude is impressive if he can develop a shut down D game or an average O game he will be a charles barkley without the great O.
I don't think this particular list is very helpful. The idea of using statistical analysis to gain an edge on the competition is predicated on finding info that are not obvious to those who don't look at the data.... Pretty much all of these names are very obviously good players and it's apparent to the rest of the league. Now, if there is some set of data that told you Boris Diaw was a valuable player before his season with PHX or help you find a more obscure name like Kirk Snyder that can be turned into a contributor, then you have something... Delonte West is just about the only name here who isn't on the radar of casual fans, but based on the rumored traded proposals around him, his name is pretty high on the GMs lists already.
