could we set something up, like the "Opposite of Ignore List" where you get a phone call or email or knock on the door everytime a selected poster of your choice says something? That would help me.
I've been meaning to weigh in all the discussion regarding the 82 game stats. There are a couple of things you have to remember about unadjusted +/- stats. "Unadjusted plus/minus ratings do not measure the value of a player per se; they measure the value of the player relative to the players that substitute in for him. In addition, there are differences in the quality of players that players play with and against. A weak starter on a team with exceptionally good starters (relative to bench players) will generally get a very good unadjusted plus/minus rating – regardless of their actual contribution to the team." http://82games.com/comm30.htm Also +/- stats on/off court have a quite a bit of issue actually that even Roland Beech himself (developer of 82games.com methodology) acknowledges. +/- comparisons on and off court (and the Roland Rating) is also problematic in the sense that net contribution to a team can be masked because of the indirect nature of the math. For instance a team full of +4 players when playing together, a specific players net +/- would be 0 even though the 5 man combination would be estimated to have a +20 pt margin against an average team. Other funky results can result as well. Furthermore the the net +/- Roland Rating also are of little reliability for players with large or small playing times. http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=38&highlight=roland+ratings It doesn't mean that +/- stats (or any other stats for that matter) aren't useful. Analyzing stats is probably more akin to analyzing results from blood tests for instance. They only give you an indication of what may be happening so that you can develop hypothesis - serving as a way to help to ask the right questions to reach the right diagnosis. And just like the medical analogy a blood test might only give you a certain perspective and not give you visibility to other important factors like you might get from an MRI or a CAT scan etc. In the same way +/- stats on their own may not make sense or tell you anything at all while looking at another set of factors will like analyzing PER.
Oh I definitely agree that Morey is starting to make an impression on front office moves. Here's what I said in another thread: The next level that I'd be interested in seeing is Morey's ability to find a motivated seller. I'm pretty sure that we got Snyder for practically nothing because the Hornets made a conscious decision of picking Rasual Butler over Snyder and need to clear cap space to sign him. So one trick might be to find some team that might be creeping up to the luxury tax and willing to move a bench player that Morey grades out as underrated, to avoid the LT. As long as there are teams that don't like losing money, there will always be motivated sellers in the business. To be really effective as a GM, Morey's got to identify them and pounce. Hopefully he's as smart and clever as his reputation states.
You act as if there is something complicated about all these special hidden stats that only Morey knows about, things that are super detailed. You also seem to think that I cannot comprehend he would use other criteria as well. Look bottom line, what I've seen so far is far from impressive, in fact it's downright depressing. So I say again IF this all Morey's doing, he needs to get his butt back to Fantasy League with the other nerds and go play with his calculator or something.
I'm interested in knowing what's depressing about subtracting Swift, Wesley and Bogans and adding Battier, Snyder and Novak before you even get into the 4.2 TE or the MLE.
Ever hear the expression lowered expectations? That's all this offseason has been. Seriously, the offseason has been very poor.
I'm expecting someone at least twice as good as Snyder since that TE is more than twice as large as this one. Just don't expect to give up nothing at all again, some picks and/or Luther Head could be included (the Hornets front office is confounding me a bit... spent $100 mil+ on two guys and dumping some lower priced assets and I'm not even sure that makes them a playoff team next season yet) A couple obvious targets could be Portland's Turtle Twins (Blake/Dixon) or a host of role players in Chicago, as Paxson wants more cap space to get another bigger name FA. I'd be REALLY happy if SEA's uncertainty leads to Rockets getting Nick Collison. As has been pointed out before, trading Juwan for a better fit would seem to make perfect Morey-sense.
Interesting. Maybe we could predict the Rockets next move? Here are the point guards you mentioned in more detail: Antonio Daniels http://www.82games.com/0506/0506WAS.HTM Fair value $4.88 Actual Salary $5.0 Marko Jaric http://www.82games.com/0506/0506MIN.HTM Fair value $5.68 Actual Salary $5.0 Raja Bell http://www.82games.com/0506/0506PHO.HTM Fair value $6.00 Actual Salary $4.3 Anthony Johnson http://www.82games.com/0506/0506IND.HTM Fair value $4.68 Actual Salary $2.4
It just seems like an impossible dream, or a line from a Broadway musical, or tilting at windmills. I would be so ecstatic.
Could be, but take Marko Jaric... he was in the doghouse for Dwayne Casey, and his contract has 5 more years on it. As much as people think 3 years 21 mil for Juwan is a lot, there are bigger longer contracts out there. Besides Juwan can actually be useful for a few teams.
Van Gundier, i have a question. What's the difference between Roland Rating and Fair Salary? What are the pros and cons of each rating? Because you said that Collison would be a great pickup. and his fair salary suggests that he is. but his RR is 0. So i just want to know whats the significance of the RR. http://www.82games.com/0506/0506SEA.HTM and another question, given the MLE, big TE, Juwan and Luther Head, who do you think is the more realistic PF pick up or trade target using those "assets"? By the way, in my opinion, maybe Brian Cook can also be a good pick-up. He is a bigman with range, though a little too perimeter-oriented i guess. and for some reason, I'm still hoping we could somehow land Jr Smith. Im willing to give Luther Head for him. But Snyder is also a good pick-up. So Smith might be nonsense anymore for this team.
I'm telling you, don't look at those two signings as if the Hornets have changed their m.o. They'll end up at or barely over the salary cap. And will probably stay there just like the Clippers. Both of those owners are interested in making money first, and if they can build a team that can compete on a fixed budget to make more money, that is their ideal. Like I said in another thread, it's the little things, not the big ones to truly shows a cheapskate. Like the Clippers never having enough depth. They've started keeping together their big name guys and core players, but they always shuffle in the rest of the roster with minimum salary players. If they didn't keep finding diamonds in the rough like Bobby Simmons and Quinton Ross, they'd be just as bad as always. In terms of the bulls; Allen, Sweetney or Songaila are three guys I would target. Chicago is exactly the type of motivated seller that Morey needs to go after. According to the thread in the nba forum, they've already dumped J.R. Smith. As for Nick Collison, he doesn't really excite me. Who I'd really want from the Sonics is Earl Watson. I can't think of a better PG to pair up with Alston. They bring a diverse amount of skills to the positions with Alston being a better handler/distributer while Watson is a better defender/spot up shooter. And I remember Kelly Dwyer hinting that Watson might be on the block. Too bad we don't have anything to offer or a big enough TE.
And I agree, Jaric could be a good pick-up with TE. Plus he is a realistic pick-up becausehe fell out of favor in Min. I'd love to see a big half-court line up of.. Jaric Tmac Battier Howard Yao and its good for us that our line-up will look like this Jaric / Alston / JLIII Tmac / Sura / Head Battier / Snyder / Bowen Howard / Hayes / Novak Yao / Mutombo / Baxter? I guess, this is a versatile line up in 1, 2 and 3 spots. But id still love to see Jr Smith in a rockets uni.
I'm not quite sure how these things work.. However, Roland rating combines the PER (individual production) with the on/off court (what happens to team performance) with some formula. 0 is not a bad Roland rating, I guess, since it can be negative. The "fair salary" I think, is based PER, on/off court, and minutes played (Yao and TMac would have had higher fair salary had they been healthy). None of this is completely reliable, in fact, there is a ton of noise in this. I just find it fun to see who has suprisingly high or low numbers as compared to his reputation. As for realisitc PFs... I'm really not sure. So many of them are either overpaid (Nene) or looking to get overpaid (Wilcox, Gooden). Given these options, I suspect Morey tries to see what Chuck Hayes can do first before making any kind of serous move-- unless that is, a Kirk Snyder kind of gift falls into his laps.
Whenever I see the name Nick Collison, my eye reads Collision! I think when I see him play that is reinforced....
I love the Topic title. ... When the moon-a hits-a your eyes-a lik-a big-a pizza pie ... Here's hoping that Moreyball is a big success, this season and beyond!
I view the Moreball stats as a way to import objectivity in a valuation process that can be too subjective. It's a way for management to rub their eyes and ask: "Are my eyes decieving me?" Is my theory of value correct? It's like what I said about Battier's value and playoff success/failure with Memphis versus what might occur with the Rockets' 2 star system. Management might feel Battier's value wiht the rockets is higher than with memphis but using comparable situations and statistical analysis gives you some ojbective data to test the theory. I doubt anyone is saying that mgmt should make decisions based on stats alone. But stats have a critical value and should be brought to bear.
