This is courtesy of 82games.com Interestinf read on what history tells about draft picks and their success in the NBA http://www.82games.com/nbadraft2.htm
I'm glad Hakeem is right at the top where he should be -- above Shaq and Duncan. This isn't an 82games.com exclusive, here is a slightly sexier version: http://www.nbadraft.net/reeddraftanalysis001.asp
This same thing was also on DraftExpress today - looks like the analysis made its rounds quickly. I recommend also reading the second article there today, talks about percentages, and breaks it all down.. really shows that points and swingmen are safer bets outside of the top ten, where big men, even at the highest slots, are total gambles even under the best of circumstances. To me, that just eliminates all the big men for us in thei weak draft. The Rox need to stick with the Brewer/Carney/Redick picks.. or, mayyyybe a Foye or a Farmer if they grab another first rounder this year. Just Say No to these weak-ass big men this year unless Thomas falls to us, or Bargnani. They need to stay the heck away from O'Bryant or Aldridge or Sene or any of those guys. It will not turn out well.
I read the conclusions from this article, and the similiar one at draftexpress differently, in regards to JJ. Per 82games article, you should be able to get either an average starter or better at worst 66% of the time. Per draftexpress, if you are drafting in the top quartile of the draft (top 15 roughly), you have a 36% chance of landing a star and a 34% chance of landing a "solid" starter. That's a 70% chance of landing that type of player. Now it's just a matter of gauging where you think JJ fits in. I see him excelling as a back-up, or being an ok starter. Maybe at best an "average/solid" starter. At worst, too slow to stay/get significant minutes in the league. I'd rather "risk it" (that 70% risk, I guess) and pick someone else whose game may not be as clearly defined, but whose upside is singificantly higher.
Dude you can say that but their is no reason for me to think that this is not the reason to take brewer i promise you alot more people make their living in the Nba playing D and slashing than they do hitting open j's and playing horrible D! Redick is just going to be another shorter steve kerr! Because it doesnt reallly matter if he scores 30ppg(which he wont even come close to) if he gives up 32 which he will to any average guy! Their is a gurantee Brewer will be able to athletically defend and slash their is nothing to say that redick will be able to cover his own ppg!
So now we know why JVG went after that last late season win -- to keep the Rockets from the dreaded sixth draft slot. All things are revealed in time.
It is interesting how he draw the "super star" line right above Yao... Carmelo Anthony is super star but not Yao? That sure seems a bit subjective.
Yup, they have Carmelo above Chauncey. I think Chauncey is a more accomplished player at this stage of his career than Carmelo.
Well there were quite a few on this very board who doubt/Doubted Yao. I am pretty sure you will still see trade Yao for Steve Francis etc Messages the first time Yao has a couple of bad games.
Actual the draftexpress bar graph shows top quartile of the 1st round, not draft. So it's actually 70% chance of landing a star/solid starter for the first 7 picks\. Chances of landing a star/solid starter in the 2nd quartile is much less at 43%.
I saw Bobby Hurley and I immediately thought JJ Redick. NBA Rorsasch test I guess.... Eddie Griffin.....Tyrus Thomas Bargnani.....Nowitzki in five years ? My very own NBA road kill identification guide. Anyone else care to verbalize their associations and thus reveal all of the darkness dwelling in their mind?
Counting Len Bias as a bust is just cold. I don't like his analysis. He has a category of bench player and a category of bust. He has them as exclusive, but these terms are not mutually exclusive for high draft picks like Swift and Darko. As done in this analysis, Darko and Swift should be placed in the bench category (even though they are busts) at this point because each has proven his worth at least as a bench player. I expect Darko will rise to the starter category with Swift stuck were he is.
JJ Redick - Reggie Miller Ronnie Brewer - Terence Morris Tyrus Thomas - Eddie Griffin Sheldon Williams - Carlos Boozer Andrea Bargnani - Darko Milicic
Well I guess Brewer is screwed in your alternative universe.... Redick doesn't have the ears to be Reggie Miller - Reggie used them to balance when he was jump shooting. I see you and I agree on Tyrus.
Redick is going to be WAAAAAAAAAAAY better than Brewer. The rox don't need a slasher. They've got McGrady and we don't need a superstar. We need a SHOOTER. Brewer is NOT a SHOOTER. THe rox need someone who will be able to shoot lights out when T-Mac and Yao are doubled and/or having an off night. REDICK's THE GUY!!! I'll take the 10-20 pts a game he will no doubt give them. The defense can improve but the rockets need OFFENSE!!! I'm so sick of hearing this defense crap!!! The game's not exciting. I'd much rather watch a suns game or even a mavs game these past couple years because the rox have become so BORING. They need shooters and Redick is a shooter. Defense will take care of itself. Trust me on this. I've been watchin the game for a looooooooong time. He's the next Hornacek. I can see it now. Plus HE CAN SHOOT A DAMN FREE THROW (an art lost in today's NBA)
1st - I don't think you're opinion is going to be viewed as all that unbiased given your screen name. 2nd - Is league average FT shooting down as oppossed to years past? People always say FT shooting has really diminished, but has it actually? There were some bad shooters back in the day, too.
