http://www.orlandosentinel.com/spor...ider2506jun25,0,5309881.column?coll=orl-magic Tim Povtak Tough times ahead for Dallas Published June 25, 2006 Mark Cuban and the Dallas Mavericks would like to believe this was just a preview of things to come -- that they knocked on the door to a championship, and they will kick it down in 2007 -- but they sadly are mistaken. Their only real shot to win an NBA title was lost last week. The Mavs -- not the Heat -- were the one-year wonders. When they fell asleep in the fourth quarter of Game 3 of the NBA Finals in Miami, blowing a 13-point lead and the chance to build a 3-0 series lead, they never totally woke up again. They will be remembered as the team that spent too much time worrying about the officiating, and too little time driving hard to the basket. They are considerably younger than the Heat, but their foundation isn't strong enough yet to last. Their fame will be fleeting. They have only one real all-star in Dirk Nowitzki -- and it usually takes two to dance an NBA title. The Phoenix Suns, when Amare Stoudemire returns healthy to rejoin Steve Nash next season, won't let them pass again. Neither will the San Antonio Spurs, who fell to the Mavs only because Tim Duncan was struggling with a foot problem, leaving Tony Parker to carry too heavy a load. If Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are healthy together in Houston, the Mavs might be only the third-best team in the state of Texas next season. Mavs guard Jason Terry, a free agent this summer, got a taste of real glory during the playoff run, and he wants to be paid handsomely, either in Dallas or elsewhere this summer. That will cause a problem. Josh Howard doesn't always get the big picture, either. Their center combination of Erick Dampier and DeSagana Diop is too much of an offensive liability to overcome in the future. The Mavs had a wonderful run this season. They should bask in their success as an NBA finalist. They overachieved, but they will fade much like the New Jersey Nets did when they reached this point in back-to-back seasons (2002, '03), then dropped into the pack of the Eastern Conference. Congratulations to the Mavs, but this is as far as you get. Francis could benefit The biggest benefactor from the change of coaches in New York will be former Magic guard Steve Francis. The biggest loser in the mess will be Isiah Thomas, who now must coach this oddball cast of characters he assembled. If Larry Brown -- one of the all-time best coaches -- couldn't make it work, it's hard to believe that Thomas can, either. It also could be the end of the NBA line for Thomas, who has struggled to find success since his playing days ended. His previous coaching attempt in Indiana did not go well. He also struggled as part-owner and general manager in Toronto in the 1990s, then hastened the demise of the Continental Basketball Association under his leadership. What he did in New York is hard to fathom, building a $125 million payroll to win only a handful of games. If he doesn't win quickly -- which might be impossible -- he will be shown the door in Madison Square Garden. Francis will be given the chance to play big minutes alongside Stephon Marbury. He is likely to put up big numbers again. Thomas said he thinks they can play together like he once did alongside Joe Dumars in Detroit.
I wish any of that were true, but it isn't. First of all, Duncan looked great against Dallas. I doubt the foot was an issue. Secondly, as much as I'd like it to be true, the chances of Houston being better than Dallas next year are pretty slim. I've already been burned by similar expectations last year.
I think the future of the Western Conference will belong to four teams: Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, and Suns. I predict if Amare is healthy and comes back next season at the same level he was at before this past season, the Suns will win at least one championship in the next three seasons. Also, I predict if the Rockets have a healthy Yao and McGrady for the next three seasons, there will be at least one finals appearance for this Rockets squad. The key to both the Rockets' and the Suns' future success is health above all else.
I just don't see the suns getting it done They will come close but . . . no cigar in the end. . . they just don't play defense at all Rockets on the other hand . . . Rocket River
You guys need to be more optimistic. Houston can be in the elite teams next year given that McGrady and Yao play 75+ games each.
All they have to do is get past the WCF (which is how far they got two years in a row now, even WITHOUT Amare, a feat no one dared predict when Amare went down), and then they will trump whomever plays them in the East. The Suns are talented, young, explosive, and run by the best floor general in recent NBA history. Look at this predicted lineup for next season and tell me how I can bet against them: Amare, Diaw, Marion, Raja, Nash (Barbosa, Kurt Thomas, Johnson, Tim Thomas). Moreover, if the Marion for Chandler + #2 pick trade goes through, they will finally not only have the requisite depth they've been pursuing for a while now, but will finally have the size/defense in the front court that they always wanted. Chandler is not only an excellent defender, but he's also very athletic and the Suns wouldn't lose much of their explosiveness in that trade. They would be much more scary is that trade goes through, just look at this projected lineup: Chandler, Amare, Diaw, Raja, Nash, Barbosa, Tim Thomas, Johnson, #2 pick (might be Morrison or some other impact player who will be a very good player in this league). Say what you may, but if that trade goes through, the Suns will have MORE than one championship when it's all set and done...that's the most talent-filled roster I have seen in a long time.
I feel the same way about the Mavs as this journalist does.. their success this year was moreso opportunity, rather than talent.. the stars aligned perfectly for them.. remember that before this year they had only reached the WCF once a year before only because the Kings star (peja) sprained his ankle. The Mavs will stay competitive, reaching the playoffs for probably as long as Dirk is on their squad, but they are NOT an NBA finals threat.. there are just too many talented teams. People are selling the Rockets short.. but imagine if Shaq and Wade were hurt for the heat all regular season long.. they're not much of a team then, are they? All the Rockets need is a 3rd scoring option and a decent 6th man and we're instantly WCF worthy.
they key to their success is nash......when he goes down they go down. THey need to keep an eye out for his replacement. They will also loose rebounding with Marion and and his ability to cause mis-matches.
Seems like the writer has some sort of axe to grind with the mavs...you can just sense the bias in his article....the mavs are as well positioned as anyone in the western conference for the next 3-4 years. It's one thing if the team is filled with a bunch of 32-33 year old veterans, but saying a team whose window of opportunity has passed when 4 of their 5 starters are 28 or younger is illogical. Also, of all the stars in the western conference, Dirk is the most likely to last an entire season without wearing down or getting injured. Nash, Duncan, McGrady, and Yao have not.
Actually they are much better team than the Rockets. They could probably start Zo Haslem, Jason w., Walker at sf and Posey at SG with Haslemat PF with Payton and Anderson on the bench and still be in the Playoffs. Definitely better than the Rockets without Yao and Tmac. Ryan Bowen Mutombo Wesley Rafer JHO... That's a bad CBA team.
If the Mavs lose Jason Terry, they will be in trouble. Dirk Nowitzki can get them to the brink but can't put them over. He is not consistently dominant in the playoffs and disappears for large stretches. Josh Howard will want a big contract soon. Without Jason Terry, Dallas will be toast in the playoffs.
If the Mavs don't re-sign Jason Terry, it will hurt them a lot. I expect it will get done. Their center position is awful. The fact they lack a low block scorer makes them easier to defend in tight games, which is why Miami was able to beat them. Neither center has a turnaround move. That is a lot to overcome. But the writer is too negative. Josh Howard made big progress this year and he's primed for another step up IMO. He and Dirk are a dynamic SF/PF combo that makes up for the zero they have in the middle. The Suns next year will be interesting to watch. Besides the Rockets, I will probably follow them more than any NBA team (at least to start the season). If Nash's playmaking abilities don't decline much, the Suns could be the WC favorite next season. They won't need him to score as much with Amare returning. The Spurs will be tough, but Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley and Robert Horry are getting up in years. I don't expect them to be as good next season. If I had to choose a WC favorite right now, it would be the Suns. The only thing that concerns me is they are perhaps the most snake-bitten franchise in NBA history. Some always seems to happen. Probably they will have a great regular season record but some freak event will prevent them from reaching the Finals. If they do reach the Finals, they will lose in heartbreaking fashion.
I have to agree a bit that Dallas will have a hard time making it back to the NBA finals in the near future. The Jason Terry issue seems kind of a lose/lose scenario, either you lose one of your best scorer or you overpay for him effecting who you can keep down the road. Unless they can find teams willing to take Erica D.'s contract their ability to improve much is pretty limited. As for Phoenix the future could be bright if Amare can indeed come back from his injury 100%. The Amare we saw briefly this year though looks pretty similiar to a "post-Chris Webber" type player and we'll probaly never see that Amare again. Phoenix has a difficult decision next year to make too: Play Nash alot and secure homecourt for the majority of the playoffs again, or rest him more and hope he can stay healthy throughout the post season. Either way this team will always have a weakness against teams that can pack the backcourt with scorers as Nash has been a defensive liability and it looks like its only going to get worse from her on out.
The only thing I give credit to the Mavs is their ability to reinvent themselves through trades and not getting hurt so far from taking in those long and bloated contracts. Not a lot of teams are that lucky or skilled.
The Spurs may have one more championship in them, two max, but that's about it. They are gonna fade as Duncan fades. The future of the WC is Houston, Phoenix, and the Clippers.
I totally agree that without Terry they are nothing. He is so important to their team even though he annoys the hell out of me. I am sorry but Josh Howard really isn't that great. He is a good NBA player but so many people think he is a star in the making. Now if they continue to have the best luck in the world with no injuries and they keep Terry then they may stay a perrenial power but I really hope not.
Does anyone really think Terry is going to sign with another team? He was with the lowly Atlanta for so long, it'd be hard for him to go back to anything but contending. I dont think Mike James will go there. They do tend to load up their payroll but to keep both would be an unbelievable steal for them. With the improvements we are making this offseason, I'm not so worried about the Mavs as I am the Spurs.
There are a lot of "ifs" in that article. First of all, the comment about Dampier and Diop being an offensive liability is true. But in the West these days, there's really only one strong offensive center, and we know who that is. The Mavs have so many guns on that roster, who cares if your center gets you ANY points. Block shots, snare rebounds, clog up the middle......if they do that, as they have done, the Mavs are fine in the middle. Jason Terry is going to be back. Do you really think Cuban will make the same mistake he made by letting his stud PG go? If he does, I will be truly shocked and amazed. Only one all star? Well, what is the proven formula? Is it two, three? More? Jason Terry is as close to an all-star as you get without actually being named to the team. No one seems to have an answer for Josh Howard. Stackhouse isn't that far removed from putting up 26 a game. The team with the most players named to an all-star team does not translate to playoff success. Portland couldn't do it in the late 90's. Plus, the NBA isn't like it used to be. You won't have teams with 3-5 studs on it anymore like the Lakers and Celtics of old. Dallas is going to be right back in the thick of it next season. We shouldn't expect them to just wither up and die because some bozo in Orlando writes an article.
