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Interesting argument on PG's

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by anitasri, Jun 22, 2006.

  1. anitasri

    anitasri Member

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    I am on of those who believes that we need a Better PG- not just a back up for Rafer. Rafer is adequate- but I also acknowledge that he is best PG we have seen in a rocket's uniform in a long time.

    Here is a unusual take on PG and Assists- I think this guy has a point, just assists alone is not a great stat ( or even A/TO)



    This is from Real GM on their Discussion regarding Atlanta's needs

    Quote
    For those who feel that a point guard is what we need, check this out: Dallas is 2nd to last in the league in assists. But it works for them. Phoenix is first in the league in assists. It works for them. Cleveland, Washington, and New Orleans all have stellar point guards and playmakers. They are in the bottom third of the league in assists. 9 of the top 10 teams in the league in assists were in the playoffs, with the other team being Utah (another team that emphasizes execution). What do these stats tell you? Assists are the product of ball movement. Do you have to have a “true” point guard for that? Well, the top 5 teams in assists have Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups, Andre Miller, Jason Kidd, and Mike Bibby on them. But all five of those teams get out-rebounded on a regular basis as they all have negative rebounding margins. Go figure, the top 5 in assists all get out-rebounded. All five of those teams are at home right now. Miami and Dallas are 1st and 3rd in the league in rebounding margins, with +4.24 and +3.86 respectively. You do the math

    Unquote

    I guess the guy does make a good point which may be relevant in our case. Apart from Rebounds- I think the PG's ability to hit the long range Jumpers, finish lay ups ( rafer are you listening?), and keep up with the faster guards.
     
  2. Rockets111

    Rockets111 Member

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    Alston is the best PG we've seen on the Rockets since John Lucas. Period.

    I've said it since January when I had become accustomed to his play. He's unselfish, is a great penetrator, can run the fast break and he's an able shooter. He also doesn't turn the ball over much and just simply loves to play the game.
     
  3. m_cable

    m_cable Member

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    Where? This article was so disjointed and poorly thoughtout. He points out the top five assist teams are out of the finals. Of course they are ALL playoff teams, and two of those teams made the conference finals. So they must be doing a lot wrong.

    He mentions Dallas and Miami being the #1 and #3 rebounding team, but neglects to mention that the #2 rebounding team in Utah didn't even make the playoffs. Never mind the fact that this has no connection to the PG position at all since it's not as if Dallas and Miami's PG's are good rebounders. He makes it seem like assists and rebounding are somehow interconnected, which doesn't make any sense.

    This is just an Atlanta guy who's gotten suckered into Billy Knights philosophy for not going after a PG, and he's grabbing onto any stats that helps support his position whether they are related or not.
     
  4. anitasri

    anitasri Member

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    I dont see it the same way as you do- what I believe is that IF you dont have a Bibby or Nash or Kid on your roster- do you feel that your chances of making it to the finals a tough sled?

    What he is saying is that a GOOD PG ( as In Nash et al) on a team with Negative Rebound Diff- is not that much of an advantage ( I guess it all figures in the FGA at some point- if you take the argument to its conclusion and assuming a reasonable Shooting percentage)

    Just as teams Like Phoenix have made peace with the Fact that dont have a dominant center- and came up with the model they currently have.

    Your Comment on Utah is well taken- but nobody thinks that Utah is a contender either regardless of what statistics you used.

    In the current environment of Big contracts and max players- it is just not possible to compensate 3 players to the extent they dont leave you. I would prefer a team policy where I would not spend everything on 2 superstars but spread the loot evenly between 3 players who are all star caliber. I dont mind increasing the Salary cap but have a cap on the max contract to permit this model.

    Otherwise a lot of teams will either have to go over the luxury tax threshold or get lucky with picks or suck like Atlanta and Till recently La Clippers!
     
  5. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    Nope. Not even close. If you think having a good assist to turnover ratio is the only thing that matters, that's nice, but in the real world we play the games.

    He's somewhere between Moochie Norris and Matt Maloney.

    In between, I'd take Smith, Cassell, healthy Brent Price, Moochie Norris during his one good season, Francis, Sura, James and Mobley over him. I might even take Damon Jones from a few seasons ago.

    Edit: I just sampled some of the PER ratings, and statistically Alston is pretty much inferior to almost all regular Rocket PGs of the last 20 years, I will resist putting up the stat-signal to durvasa...but the statement above is even more ludicrous than it initially seemed.
     
    #5 SamFisher, Jun 22, 2006
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2006
  6. arjun

    arjun Member

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    rafer is the best pg in a LONG time, i like him, he just needs to shoot, or i mean learn to
     
  7. m_cable

    m_cable Member

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    anitasri now you're being disjointed and all over the place. Where did all this stuff about 2 superstars vs 3 all stars come from? I'm just trying to respond to the Assist/Rebounding issues that he brings up.

    Reading the original passage, it's clear to me that he's trying to draw a direct parallel between "rebounding the ball and success" versus "having a lot of assists and success". The "you do the math" says it all. Then that whole point gets folded into the main argument of whether Atlanta needs a PG or not.

    Not that much of an advantage? Nash only just led a paper-thin roster to the conference finals without Amare, Kurt Thomas, and with Raja Bell hobbled. The Pistons went to the conference finals too, so I don't see how the assists set them back all that much.

    I mean Dallas and Miami were the top two teams, so I'm sure you could find a dozen different stats that have them near the top so as to "prove" the value of that particular statistic.

    I'm not saying that having a bunch of assists is that important, or that rebounding the ball isn't important. I'm just saying that there is no relationship between the two like this guy is implying. Especially when you apply it to the one positions of PG. Because unless that PG is a good rebounder himself, then his presence or lack of presence isn't going to directly affect rebounding totals.
     
    #7 m_cable, Jun 22, 2006
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2006
  8. Untraceable

    Untraceable Member

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    The best? wtf? Rafer alston have the shooting range of shaquille Oneal and he like a he's like a Rolls-royce owner cause he never drives
     
  9. Jacquescas

    Jacquescas Member

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    Alston isn't the problem, the fact that Alston was asked to be a scorer was the problem. If he had a team to play with that could score no one would say squat.

    If we shore up the starting lineup he should have a career year.
     
  10. Rockets111

    Rockets111 Member

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    All Smith was was a 3-point gunner...

    Cassell was a backup...sheesh, he couldn't even take Smith's starting spot...

    Norris and Price over Alston? Well, it's your opinion, but it sucks...

    Mobley wasn't a PG...

    Francis was a SG in a point's body...he was forced to play PG...

    And did I say having a nice Ast/TO ratio was all that matters? No, it was only some of his attributes. Alston posted 11, 6 and 4 in a season where key players missed significant time and he had some ailments himself. With a full, healthy squad I think he'd post something along the lines of 13 ppg/8 apg and 38-40% 3s.

    Like I said, in a season where he was actually one of the top offensive options, he shot 34%. He doesn't drive? Did you watch the games? He's one of the better penetrators on our team and can create his shot in the lane.
     
  11. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    I don't know what you said...except for what you said was hideously deadly, absolutely, embarrassingly, humiliatingly wrong - by the numbers, by reality, by whatever. (See generally Reality, 1986-2006)

    Rockets regular PG's since John Lucas?

    Rafer Alson < Allen Leavell.

    Cheers.
     
  12. OGKashMoney

    OGKashMoney Member

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    In terms of a "true" point guard, as in a pass first PG, Alston and Sura are the best we have had in a long time. And these are the types of points guards we need and can live with IF and ONLY IF we get the shooters around our two stars. Sura can shoot, but Alston needs to improve his shooting. However, we don't need a point guard thats always penetrating b/c our offense runs through Yao and TMac. Dallas and Phoenix need penetrating points guards b/c they don't have the post up player we have.

    Therefore, Alston, from the games I caught (which wasn't much last season since i live in LA) I think he did a good job getting Yao the ball. Now the problem becomes our shooters since people will play off of Alston to double Yao and TMac.
     
  13. JimRaynor55

    JimRaynor55 Member

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    Alston is NOT the best PG the team has had in years. He's just the best passing PG the team has had recently. Steve Francis (as overrated and unworthy of the All-Star Game as he was) blew him away in terms of overall production.

    It's nice if your PG can pass. However, it would also be nice if he could hit his shots. Alston's shooting percentages are terrible, which results in a crappy overall performance. In 2005-2006, his PER was a poor 12.7.

    You don't NEED a playmaking PG. Dallas and San Antonio are examples of current top tier teams that don't have "true" pass-first PGs. You don't need a passer if you have enough scorers who can create their own shots.

    What the Rockets need are better PLAYERS. That's why I support signing Mike James as a FA, so that he could be the team's 3rd scorer.
     
  14. TriCkz

    TriCkz Member

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    Arn't you from ESPN boards?
     
  15. Ehsan

    Ehsan Member

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    This is why I don't mind picking up Foye.


    If Dallas can run Terry as the PG with no capable post players or ball handler anywhere else, then I'm sure that Foye can handle our PG spot with T-Mac handling the ball so much, and going to the post being our first option.

    Foye could potentially be a damn good defender, our 3rd scorer, and specifically a great off-the-ball scorer.

    If we have Foye, Alston, and Head though, we'll usually have a small backcourt running. Maybe we could acquire a Trenton Hassell in this case?
     
  16. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Member

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    I think Fisher goes a little overboard on guys who are better than Alston. But, he isn't more ridiculous than saying Alston is the best pg since Lucas. Francis was 10 times the player -- he was our whole team back then. Cassell, even as a back up, even as a rookie, was better than Alston is now. The reason he didn't start over Kenny Smith didn't have anything to do with being better or worse than Smith, who incidentally was also better in his day than Alston is. I don't know if I can go with Moochie (taking his 1 good season seems like cheating, and I don't know if it was really better anyway) or Price like Fisher did.
     
  17. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    Why's it cheating? Alston has only had one season too.

    Going by PER, Moochie Norris, during his prime, was out of Alston's league; in fact only one of his seasons was he worse than Alston this past year (12.6)

    Moochie Norris PER 2000 (30 games) 18.6
    Moochie Norris PER 2001 (82 games) 16.2
    Moochie Norris PER 2002 (82 games) 13.0
    Moochie Norris PER 2003 (82 games) 11.8

    His weighted average woudl be 14.something; but in the 99-00 and 00-01 seasons, Norris was an above average PG - something that Alston was not this year.

    So sorry, Rafer, if you're the best PG since John Lucas, you'll have to meet the low bar of being better than Norris in 99-01; and you can't even do that.
     
  18. Yetti

    Yetti Member

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    Sorry but you are dreaming!!! Alston was supposed to be a great playmaker but isn't . He refuses to pass to Yao Ming every game and when he is forced to pass to Yao he needs to pass to another wing player to passs the ball in.
    His shooting is close to being POOR!!
    His play becomes very selfish at times!
    He has potential!
     
    #18 Yetti, Jun 23, 2006
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2006
  19. Yetti

    Yetti Member

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    The Rockets play the big man game and they need a Point Guard that can get Yao the ball. Everything else I am on the same page as you.
     
  20. Yetti

    Yetti Member

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    Kenny Smitrh was much better than Alston - Kenny lead his team to two championships, back to back!
     

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