If there's one positive that can come out of the Mavs getting to the Finals(and likely winning a title), it's that it'll finally light a fire under Les' ass. The Rockets won their last championship 11 years ago and haven't even won a playoff series in 9 years. The jury's still out on Van Gundy as a coach(well, at least among some Rocket fans), but the player personnel decisions have got to improve in this organization. It sickens me that the Mavs and Spurs have been able to load and reload repeatedly since the late 90's, all without the benefit of the amount or lottery picks the Rockets have had.
I see it just the opposite. Dallas in 6. Josh Howard contains Wade. Dampier and Mabenga play larger roles in this series, AJ aggressively tries to contain Shaq by playing hack a Shaq and doubling him. Effectively contain those two guys, not shut them out but contain, is the key for the Mavs. I think its tough for the visiting team to win in the other teams building, so the home court advantage the Mavs have is huge.
I think this series will be very similar to the Rockets-Magic finals matchup in 95 with the Mavs playing the role of the Rockets and Heat playing the role of the Magic. The Mavs have beaten 3 of the top 4 teams of the West (San Antonio (1st), Phoenix (3rd), Memphis (4th)). They’ve topped the best defense in the league statistically (Memphis),the best offense in the league (Phoenix), and the defending champions (Spurs). That greater level of competition will prepare them for the finals better than the Heat. Miami has had it a little too easy and I think they'll be overconfident (especially Walker and JWill). They'll come in expecting to dominate the Mavs like they've dominated the mediocre teams they have faced and they'll be shell-shocked when they find out this Mavs team is much better than any team they have faced. IMO the 3 teams that Miami has faced (Chicago, New Jersey, Detroit playing at the same level as Cleveland) are not much better than the Memphis team that Dallas swept in the first round.
New Jack, I usually agree with you but not this time. I guarantee that overconfidence will not happen on the Heat with Riley in charge. He's as good as anyone at popping overconfidence bubbles and lighting fires under players. AW, Payton & Zo will not take this once in their lifetime opportunity lightly. I think you overrate the Grizzlies. Either of the Bulls, Nets or Pistons would have beaten them easily. Except for one game, they just laid down against the Mavs. They were maybe the worst 5th seed ever. Even so, you are right Dallas had a tougher playoff road because of the Spurs but that doesn't mean they will win.
Det-NJ-Chi > Phx-SA-Mem, particularly as those teams were playing at the end of the year. The only round Dallas had a tougher match-up was the 2nd, the Grizzlies still haven't ever won a playoff game--they are the best freebie a playoff team can find. I can't believe so many folks are sold on Dallas. They don't shoot that well as a team and don't defend that well as a team. Not terrible in either, but not outstanding. They advanced the last 2 rounds because they killed their opponents on the boards, Miami is the best rebounding team in that east so what kept Dallas afloat is gone. Miami will win, I don't think it will be in much doubt.
Watch Haslem and Posey. These guys will do better than most people think. They are low key and may not be Superstars but they do grunt work. Rocket River
Let's see, either Dirk Nodickski wins and NBA title, or one of the biggest Rocket killers of the past 15 years, Gary Payton, wins an NBA title. I'll have to silently root for Dallas, though. Perhaps if Dallas wins, this whole "defense wins championships" BS will finally be scrapped, there will be an end to the 82-75 games that have plagued the league, and the Rockets will fire Van Gundy... I think the NBA wants Dallas to win, also. In fact, the NBA needs Dallas to win. If you're not a fan of NBA officiating, I suggest you not watch this NBA finals. There's going to be more flops than a Steven Segal movie marathon on Spike TV...
Memphis headed into the playoffs winning 8 of their last 9 games (15 of their last 19 games). They were the hottest team in the league heading into the playoffs. Yes, they have been swept 3 years in a row, but look at the teams that swept them. 2004: swept by the defending champion San Antonio Spurs 2005: swept by a Phoenix team that won 62 games 2006: swept by the Mavs Chicago was the one and only team Miami faced that was playing well heading into the playoffs and not surprisingly, they were the one team that gave Miami the most trouble. New Jersey lost 5 of their last 8 heading into the playoffs and struggled to beat an Indiana team playing without Peja for much of the series and whose best player was Anthony Johnson. Detroit played HORRIBLE basketball from the 3rd game of the Cleveland series on. If Cleveland could have faced the same Detroit team that Miami faced, they would have won the series easily. And even despite Detroit playing horrible basketball, they still were able to extend the series to 6. And yet you don’t think the Mavs can win 2 games?
It is one thing to lose, it is another to be swept. The Gizzards are the only playoff opponent any of those teams have swept. Memphis has been consistently the easiest match-up in the WC playoffs, this year the easiest playoff draw in the whole league. The last 2 week's record doens't mean much unless the team is fighting for a playoff spot (Chi). In fact Memphis was stupid to keep winning, it was like they knew they had no chance in the playoffs whomeever they play so might as well finish the regular season instead of worrying about a favorable seeding. The Cavs were no easy out, Lebron along with Wade have been the two most impossible players to stop one on one, and that Cleveland team jelled. That "horrible" Detroit team still beat the Cavs twice when it mattered and beat Miami twice. Let's not forget that Det team has been the best team over the last 2 years, 2 time EC champs, 1 title, 1 7-game loss to a Spurs (better Spurs team come playoffs than this year--when knew this when a mediocre Sac team gave them trouble in round 1) in the finals team because Sheed forgot to cover Big Shot Rob for one play (who was AWAL this year for the Spurs). As for New Jersey, they have arguably the best 1-2-3 combination in the league and had a 14 game winning streak before putting on the breaks once they realized they could not catch Miami for the 2 seed. Many folks had NJ as the #1 darkhorse team from the East along with the Mavs in a comparable position from the East. NJ is certainly more formidable than the talent depleted Suns team-- who needed 14 games just to escape the LA clubs and who can't play defense or rebound-- and who gave the Mavs more trouble than anyone brought to Miami.
Who has Josh Howard contained in the playoffs this year? Prince/Rip/Hunter couldn't contain Wade but Joward can? Based on what?
He has 4 games left being suspended, and is way too light anyway. It is up to Damp and even more Diop. Diop is the best shot they got and needs to stay out of foul trouble because Shaq kills Damp. Howard has rare quickness and length, probably quicker than Prince. But he is dumb foul prone. He is Dallas's best shot for sure, but over time I don't expect him to contain Wade.
I know you are with me on the series outcome, but in these Finals, Josh Howard's offense is more important than his defense. I don't care if he's a little quicker than Prince, he's not nearly quick enough to stay with Wade. The best way to defend him is with smaller, lightning quick peskiness aka Lindsey Hunter. If Howard is a foul machine then it's over against Wade. On offense, if Howard can keep up the production the Mavs will be much tougher to beat. His offense is a maybe the biggest wild card of the series. If both he and Dirk are hitting shots, Riley will need to reach into his bag of tricks. I have a feeling Howard will come back down to earth. I don't look for many more 25-30 point games from him. Miami in 6.
How exactly was a 49 win team "the worst 5th seed ever"? Look, you may hate the Mavs but you need to get a grip. Memphis got screwed by the new playoff seeding format and should have played the Clipps in the first round. And you know they would have not been swept by them and possibly could have won that series.
We have both seen the future and it ain't in Houston. FYI, the Rockets are already an afterthought and barring a complete rebuild, destined to stay that way for years to come for if the Maverick/Phoenix school of basketball becomes the norm, then the Rockets will have find out that they have hitched their wagon to the wrong horse...again.
I think JVG will be gone next year regardless especially if Dallas wins it all this year. That would make next season a moratorium on the slow-it-down, low-post style of basketball he (and Pat Riley) espouses. He'd have to get the Rockets to at least the 2nd round of next year's playoffs and I really just don't see that happening with this cast and crew. But what will really spark the needed change in Rocketland will be the tremendous drop in fan interest and attendence that will occur after Rockets fall to #3 in a three NBA team state. They'd also have the luxury of playing in a division with the two previous NBA champs.
Obviously I didn't base the statement on their won-loss record. You can blame on Stoudamire's injury or that they weren't put together well for playoffs runs. Whatever, they barely put up a fight. If they played the Clips, maybe they win a game; maybe not. It's hard to win when you lay down and play dead. I don't hate the Mavericks. Dirks coming out party has been impressive and he's won my admiration. I won't call him Jirk any more. Even if I did still hate the Mavs, it wouldn't affect my predictions. I predicted they would handle the Suns and was suprised it went 6 games. Sorry to offend your Grizzly sensitivities.
At best Det-NJ-Chi is a wash with Phx-SA-Mem as far as who had a more difficult road to the finals. If you want to play this whole inference game of drawing conclusions based on how they played versus each team, then try to convince me that San Antonio wouldn't have raped Cleveland, which pushed Detroit to 7, the latter of which was still able to make it a 6 game series with Miami. Dallas clearly outplayed San Antonio in their series, and if not for a questionable Jason Terry suspension, would have closed it out in 6; and for the record, that team played WELL, not great, but certainly at a level that was close to what we've come to expect of them. I don't buy Miami as a superior rebounding team either. It's going to be about offensive rebounding in a matchup that naturally favors Dallas in field goal attempts. If the Heat don't get their fair share of second-chance points, then they're not talented enough to keep pace with Dallas offensively. People are characterizing the Heat as this great half-court execution team, but any half-court set is going to look more structured and sound when it revolves around a post player. When Shaq's not in the game, and Wade takes control, it's like night and day. He has the talent to make it work a lot of the time, but it's still a fundamentally flawed set; and like I've said, and I know you're 180 on this, but I still say Dallas is going to cause more fouls in the paint. Wade's the only perimeter guy on Miami that genuinely looks to finish strong in the lane. Also, which combination of shooters is better? Nowitzki, Terry, Stackhouse and Howard or Williams, Wade, Walker and Posey? Williams and Posey are never going to get enough shots to truly change a game (game 6 was an abberation), and I'm not putting my money on Antoine to deliver. I'm a fundamentals man damnit, and none of the Heat players, outside of Wade, keep the ball in the shooting pocket! Even Howard, with that funky release, has good form. These kind of small things reveal themselves through the course of an entire game. Sometimes that weakness can be overcome, as 'Toine and Leandro Barbosa have displayed at times, but eventually it becomes obvious why inconsistency is a word that is universally attached to these types of players. We'll see if Miami can steal one of these first two games against a team with homecourt advantage that doesn't take it for granted, because its the only chance they're going to have to get one on the road.
Refs can easily send 15+ points to either team nowadays. For example, give Shaq two fouls in the first, and another two fouls in the second. Bang. Floppy dirk wins the title. sh*t done. who cares.
