What if the Rockets Move up in the Lottery?

I assume the Rockets would be selecting on need and not on potential, considering that we're building a contender, not simply rebuilding like other teams selecting so high.

With that said, here's how I would think they'd shake out...

Scenario 1:

1. Houston -- Brandon Roy
2. Portland -- LaMarcus Aldridge
3. Charlotte -- Rudy Gay


Scenario 2:

same picks as above


Scenario 3:

same picks as above


Portland needs a big man. Przybilla is a free agent, Theo Ratliff is old, and Zach Randolph has been begging for a trade. One option would be to trade Randolph, re-sign Przybilla, and then draft Tyrus Thomas. I think they're more likely to take LaMarcus Aldridge because he's more of a franchise type player than Tyrus Thomas, who might be good but will not be THE man on any team.

Charlotte is hard to gauge. They're pretty solid at PG (Felton) / SF (Wallace) / PF (Okafor) and they're decent at C (Brezec). That would lead you to believe that they might be interested in the best SG in the draft, which is Roy. The only catch is that the Bobcats are likely to draft on potential and talent rather than need. With that in mind, I'd expect them to take the player, regardless of position, with the most superstar potential. In the minds of most people, that is Rudy Gay.

The Rockets, unlike the Bobcats, can't afford to select based on talent and potential while overlooking team needs. They're obviously set at SF and C, and they're not likely to draft a PF with a top 3 pick because they want a shooting PF and none of the guys worth taking that high fit that requirement. That leaves PG and SG. Although PG is not a strong position for the Rockets, they do have a starting-caliber player in Alston, and they're likely to bring Spanoulis over as well. After also taking into consideration that there are no truly elite point guards in this draft (highest is Marcus Williams who is projected in the late lottery) then it's pretty clear that we need a SG. Personally, I'd like to take Adam Morrison for SF and move Tracy to the 2, but the Rockets have said time and time again that Tracy is not moving. With all that considered, I think Brandon Roy is the ideal pick for the Rockets, no matter how high they'd have to take him. Maybe if there were more sure-fire talent in this draft we could move team need down on the priority list, but that's not the case.

 

As of right now...no way Rudy Gay is a top 3 pick. May change after workouts, but not right now. I could see us picking Brandon Roy even if we had a top 3 pick, but its still a bit of a stretch.

 

Sounds like a bit of a stretch for Roy, but when you really stop and think about NEED, nobody else makes as much sense as him.

As far as Gay not being a Top 3 right now, I agree to an extent. I think Charlotte is probably THE only team that would take him Top 3 RIGHT NOW. He has superstar potential and they have plenty of time to let him develop, and plenty of cap to fill in around him. After workouts, I think he'll move up. For him it's all about effort, and I think when he realizes he's falling on people's mocks he'll put in his best efforts to raise his stock (pay). He'll likely test out VERY well in the measurements (reach, vertical, etc.).

 

You NEVER draft for need w/ picks this high, ask Portland. Roy at #1 would be a waste of a #1 pick, he is even a stretch for at Top 3 pick. This isn't a knock on Roy, but he just isn't #1 pick material.

 

I haven't yet seen Patrick O'Bryant slated in the top 10, why exactly do you feel he'll go top 3? I'm curious.

 

IMO, that line of thinking is exactly why Atlanta chose Marvin "Potential" Williams over Chris "ROY" Paul.

If the unlikely event occurs that puts us in the top 3, I would look to go with Aldridge or Roy. Take a guy that can play. This team CAN NOT wait for a Bargnani or Thomas to develop over 3 years. Roy can play now and immediately become our #3 scorer. Alternatively, Aldridge would let us kick Swift out for a swingman.

Evan

 

Roy is polished, Roy's all good, but his talents are all out. There aren't many ways for him to develop his game drastically now. He'll be a help, but you can't compare this guy with Paul, who's a stud. They're different. With top 3, I'd pick Morrison. Why let T-mac play the 2? Why not make Morrison play the 2? I thought he could play both 2 or 3. Besides, with T-Mac'c AWESOME back, he'd might just be a good backup.

 

If we get a top 3 pick and don't like what's available, this is an ideal year to trade down and get multiple picks in return. This draft is very deep in okay, rotational role players, but lacks great star potential. For a team like us in need of those role players, we should pounce on the opportunity.

I wouldn't mind at all trading a top 3 pick to a perpetual loser franchise like Golden State in exchange for both their picks this year and at least one unprotected future first rounder.

 

There's a question whether Morrison is fast enough to keep up with NBA small forwards, let alone shooting guards. He's just to big and slow to be considered a swingman, definitely a small forward all the way.

 

i think if we got a top 3 pick there would be a larger chance we traded the pick then if we just stick where we are at right now.

swift
head
top 3 pick

that would probably get you a very good player. but again that would gut our roster.

 

I don't think Hakeem or Michael are in this draft. Besides, people forget that Sam Bowie was STILL A GOOD PLAYER. Had he not been injured he might have been worth that pick (considering they had Drexler already). It's not like I'm saying pick a guy that will fit a need for us even though he missed 2 full college seasons because his legs snapped.

There are no players in this draft that will be superstars right away. We don't have time for a project like Gay or Bargnani. Roy can come in and play SG for us and that's the bottom line to me.

 

Why are you assuming Bargnani will take 3 years and Aldridge will be an instant success? I live in Austin and am no stranger to Aldridge's game and I can't see him as an impact player the day he steps onto an NBA court. I'd be happy if we landed LaMarcus, but there's still a large "potential" component to drafting him.

Conversely, Pau Gasol (who was a major unknown at the time) averaged 17 ppg in his first season and Nowitski got to 17 ppg mark in his second season. If there is any reasonable expectation that Bargnani can emulate Dirk, I'd think you'd be foolish not to give him consideration as the 3rd pick.

That said, I wouldn't take Andrea at 1 or 2 but you'd have to give serious consideration at 3. Especially if Aldridge is already off of the board.

The bottomline to me is this. With a healthy TM/YM, the Rockets are a playoff caliber team but not an elite WC team. And personally, I don't see anyone in this draft to narrow the talent gap with the WC elites immediately.

Therefore, drafting for potential IMO makes sense because if you are correct, you have narrowed the gap to the elites in 1 year and the more upside you have is an "insurance" in case TM/YM continue to have injury problems.

 

I understand the logic of wanting a player that could start right away, but the "proven" players in this draft may not be that good. I love Roy at #8, but he's not Top 3 material. If we win part of the lottery we must consider potential also. Bargnani and Gay have tremendous upside and if they have good workouts, the Rockets have to consider them.

If Roy turns out to be a Chris Paul I'll eat my words. But I don't see a Chris Paul in this draft. IMO, every player mentioned for the top 10 could be a borderline bust. There are no "safe" picks; this draft is like a roulette wheel. It wouldn't surprise me if the Rookie of the Year came from someone drafted 10-20.

 

Has anyone else seen a decent amount of footage on Bargnani?

He looks ridiculous in the post, and not in a good way. If he makes a shot it looks like a damn accident. He does not get off the floor at all and will get his stuff thrown right back in his face in the NBA.

He can hit wide open jumpers, but has a low release point, slow shooting motion, and hardly jumps at all. Considering he's 7', that may not seem like a problem but if he's being guarded by someone who stands 6'10" and has NBA athleticism, he might have a tough time getting his shot off.

Of course, this is all based on what I've seen in about 7 or 8 minutes of total footage, but when you're not impressed by a guy's HIGHLIGHT reel, I think that says something.

Who knows though, he may be the best player in the draft. I just wouldn't take him based on what I've seen. I wish it weren't so damn hard to get footage of these Euro's.

 

If we wind up with one of the top 3 picks, we still have to wind up with Roy. We have a superstar with a bad back and we need to improve now.

Heck with taking Tyrus or Aldridge. Unless one of those guys goes Amare Stoudemire during workouts, that is.

 

I think given the nature of the thread and the probability of us getting these picks, you have to look at this situation in an optimisticly and say that some of the guys that show potential like Gay and Bargnani will be able to contribute within 2 yrs. Given that presumption my picks are as follow:



Rox win 1st: Morrison - TMac has shown that he is physically in a decline and even if he is able to regain his 04/05 production, I do not expect him to last that long. With 3 years playing behind Tmac easing his NBA transition, an NBA ready shooting stroke in case they need to play him extended minutes with Tmacs physical problems, and that fiery competitive personality he displayed that the Rockets need. For those reasons I say pick him at 1.



Rox win 2nd: Bargnani - Assuming he displays a decent rebounding ability at the workouts and a good shooting stroke. He is exactly what JVG wants from the 4 position. Frankly JVG is right, nothing will help the Rox offensive spacing more than a 4 that can shoot with consistent 3 point range.

Rox win 3rd: Roy - Simple low risk pick that can make a solid contribution at the 2 guard spot in the least amount of time. Had he shown a good shooting stroke in college I would say take him number 1 or 2, but since shooting is not one of his strong suits take him at 3.

Like I mentioned above in picking these guys, I am assuming the above mentioned players are able to have good workouts and their pre nba game potetial translates into the NBA with a marginal decline in statistical production.

And as far is trading is concerned, unless it is for a guy like Duhon, Gordon I say no. I trust Dawson and JVG talent evaluation abilities. As long as they employ the same stratergy they used when they picked Luther last year I am confident they will do the right thing in the draft.

 

Are you talking about the stuff that was on google video?? If so, I don't remember seeing him in the post at all - his game looked very similiar to Dirk, and his shooting motion, release point, etc. all seemed fine to me?