Biggio=First Ballot HOF Bagwell=HOF but no way does he deserve to be a first ballot guy. Biggio=Greatest Colt45/Astros ever!
Give reasons why, comparing Bagwell to other HoF first basemen. And since the HoF is *far* more than HR, "he played in the steroid era" is far from enough.
Here are my thoughts. Biggio: He has played great at 2 positions, one of them being catcher, which is a big deal to baseball folks. He played CF when his team needed him to. He wasn't great at it, but he did what he needed to do for the team. He will get 3000 hits. This is a huge number in baseball. He was arguably the second best all around player in the majors in the decade of the 90s behind Griffey Jr. His run in the late 90s, while sometimes overshadowed by Bagwell's sexier numbers, was greatness. He has done everything well. He fielded well, he hit for average and pop. He stole bases. He is a gritty baseball player who other baseball players respect. He plays hard. He runs out fly balls, he slides hard, he does everything he can do to win. A lot of people don't remember that one year when Bagwell had his hand broken and the Astros needed a power hitter, Biggio moved into the 3 hole in the lineup and hit for average and power. He has played on one team his entire career. He has been extraordinarily consistent. His level of play has gradually declined naturally with age, but he never has had a horrible off year that so many major leaguers, even great ones, go through. Verdict: Biggio first ballot. Bagwell: Rookie of the Year Gold Glover MVP Hit for high average, high power, low strike outs, and a ton of walks in most of his career. He had such a good eye...he walked a ton. Had more steals from smart base running than he deserves. Over 200 I think. Everybody in Houston loves Bagwell, and for as great as everybody in Houston thought he was, everybody else in the country thought he was greater. He is one of the very few Houston players from any sport that had more of a reputation in other parts of the country than he might have even had in Houston. While Biggio was a great player and could beat you, Bagwell was the player that the opposing fans, pitchers, and teams feared. I'm not going to go find it, but its out there if you google it, and I'm not even sure of the exact numbers, but a lot of baseball people use it: there is some kind of scientific scoring system that is being used to rate baseball players on every stat there is, weighted to what is more important. I forget the index that it is called, but it is recognized by baseball folks as legit. The players you expect to be at the top of the ranking are. Ruth, Mays, Williams, ect. are all at or near the top. When you run Bagwell's career numbers through the index, you actually see how monster his stats are compared to some of the greatest in the game. I believe he was in the top 4 or 5 first basemen ever, and I think he was in the top 50 baseball players ever. (I need to go find the ranking thing, maybe someone has seen it and go find it) Put up those huge numbers despite missing significant time in the prime of his career with a broken hand (twice I think), spending a large amount of his career hitting in the Astrodome, and having his career and production cut short by a degenerative shoulder. Without the bad shoulder, he probably would still be a top first baseman. If you compare his stats to an "average" HOF first baseman...they are better. Played his entire career on the Astros. Verdict: Bagwell first ballot Both players are going to benefit from the overall lack of Astros in the HOF, there will be a push to put the second one in after the first one is elected, and the fact that they both were so integral to the Astros becoming one of the premier clubs in the league during the 90s and beyond, not to mention both playing their entire careers in Houston...they both get in first ballot. They also benefit from pretty much never being jerks to the media and they kept their noses clean their entire careers. Pretty much people have only good things to say about them and that counts a lot.
First ballot HOF -- absolutely, Biggio is in the rarified MLB air. Biggio is an all time great and is still at the very top of his game. Batting 347 at 40 -- are you kidding me!?
If BGO continues to go at it for another year, they might go in together. Bags on his second ballot and craig on his first. seems only fitting.
I've got to disagree with you on a couple of points. The Astros have turned into one of the premier organizations in the league. I think only the Yankees, Red Sox and Braves have won more games than the Astros in the last 10 or so years. That's pretty good company. They are a pretty classy organization that is run very well. They are able to field competitve teams year in and year out without breaking the bank and they are fantastic at scouting and cultivating young talent. I'd say that's a premier organization. I also have to disagree with you on Bagwell's fielding. In his prime Bagwell was considered one of, if not THE best fielding first baseman in the league. Before his shoulder broke down, he had a decent arm for a first baseman, he routinely got to hard hit balls that other first basemen couldn't get to, and there was no player better at defending the bunt in the league. He was an excellent fielder. On the last point...in his era, especially in his prime years, there was no first baseman close to as good as Bagwell. He was the best all around first baseman in the league...hitting, running and fielding. EDIT: Found it. Adjusted OPS...or OPS+ is the new sexy stat to rate players against each other that play in different parks and different eras. Since Bagwell played 9 seasons in the Astrodome (example: 10 homeruns in Coors Field is a lot easier than 10 homeruns in the Astrodome) he gets more weight to those stats. Jeff Bagwell's OPS+ for his career is 30th all time. His single season OPS+ in 1994 gives him one of the 10 greatest single seasons ever. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/OPSplus_career.shtml
There were a number with similar numbers--but who was better? Name names, and I'll shoot them down with easily demonstrable facts, because no one was better. Nobody. I tend to think that's pretty shallow, but it's nonetheless valid as there are some voters who also think that way. You must have been asleep for much of those 15 years. You don't get in excess of 1500 RBIs by not hitting in key situations. There are those that have argued that Bagwell only got RBIs when the Astros were far ahead or far behind in the score, and that's just stupid. I think we're all agreed about that!
Bagwell and Biggio played most of their years in the Dome, which makes the numbers even more impressive for both of them since it was a pitcher friendly park.
To me it is telling of 3000 hits being the one stat that truly means achievement...Going from 2,999 hits to 3,000 hits is somehow a big acheivement...I don't think any other stat has this ring, not even SB or HR...you know what I mean? As an example 499 HR to 500 HR doesn't really elevate HoF status, but hits does... As it should I believe since the great Roberto Clemente topped at 3,000 hits exactly before he died on the plane for a humanitarian mission, his body never found...That number SHOULD carry significant weight and achievement, perhaps moreso than other milestones...
Biggio is a no-brainer first-year selection. He's one of the top 10 second basemen of all time. Unfortunately, he's the type of player who does lots of things well instead of excelling at one crowd-pleasing skill. But he's one of the best all-around baseball players of the last 20 years. The Astros won't be the same when Biggio retires.