Do we need Clemens back?

CRS in swing here

 

Arbitration was avoided because Clemens himself hadn't made a decision. If he had flat-out said "I plan to pitch in 2006", arbitration would have had to have been offered (and probably denied), and then they would have tried to work on a deal.

As it was, he wavered on whether or not he was going to pitch... and at that point, its not worth the gamble. Hell, say they did offer him $20 million, and he decided to sign... his body was nowhere near recovery, and he wasn't sure he wanted to pitch... at that point, nobody would have known (including Clemens) whether or not he still had what it takes, or was merely signing because the deal was guaranteed.

Now, since he's taken the time off to heal, and let the mental drain of the seasons fade away... you know for-sure that he's got his heart set on pitching well, and being healthy (if he decides to come back). At that point, when he says "I want to pitch"... you give him the deal he deserves.

In the end, since he didn't sign with anybody else before May 1st, the Astros not offering him arbitration means NOTHING (contrary to what Richard Justice thinks he believes... but will soon believe something else once it happens, so he can be right).

 

Fine... even the team in 04 had nowhere near the moxie that the team has now.

Lance wasn't the "greatest post-season astro player ever", Oswalt had never pitched in the playoffs and was coming off groin surgery, Andy was constantly coming on and off the DL due to the elbow, Wade Miller got hurt, Pete MUNRO was being called upon to be a stopper, Carlos Hernandez needed to be a starter for us (just off shoulder surgery) and Backe was still getting tryouts in middle-relief.

The fact that they ended up going 36-10 was truly amazing, especially when you consider that it was basically Oswalt and Clemens... and then a bunch of filler, minus the occasional good game from Backe. Also Miceli (as much as everyone hates him) and Lidge came up big in September. The lineup, could be argued, wasn't that much better than it is now... esp. if you count regular-season Beltran (not the 2 week super-human October Beltran):

Biggio (LF) = Biggio (2B) (Craig in 06 actually has fresher legs.)
Beltran (CF) > Taveras (CF)
Bagwell (1B) < Berkman (1B)
Berkman (RF) < Ensberg (3B)
Kent (2B) > Wilson (LF)
Ensberg (3B) = Lane (RF) (04 ensberg was hurt... no power or plate discipline).
Ausmus (C) < Ausmus (C)... since the second half of last year.
Everett (SS) < Everett (SS)... if the current improvement is sustained.

When you combine this with the fact that Buchholz, Wandy, Nieve is at least as good (if not better) than Backe, Munro, Carlos Hernandez... the 06 team has a much better chance of being more consistent... and not needing that big run at the end to be a playoff team.

In the end, however... I'd take Clemens every single time... especially come playoff time. A lot of people are pointing to our record in his starts, and how he came up gimpy in the World Series... but the fact remains that we would have never won game 4 of the 2005 NLDS had he not come in and pitched his guts out in releif. That warrior-like performance is exactly why you would never refuse the services of a guy like that, even if he has trouble pitching the extended innings now.

 

Does this question really need be argued?

I'd Icyhot my balls for a month if we signed him.

IMHO we'd be a lock for the NLCS (leadership and stabilizing influence is off the charts) instead of a team with a strong chance of repeating.

 

On ESPN Motion, there is a clip of Buster Olney talking about how Clemens may be leaning more heavily towards going back to the Yankees instead of the Astros for monetary reasons. When the Astros didn't offer him arbitration last year, he thinks Clemens may have considered it a sign that the Astros didn't want to put up the money to keep him. If we make it so his decision is based solely on money, we will lose to the Yankees. What can we do as fans to make it harder for Clemens to go back to the Yankees? What can we do as fans to convince Drayton that he should pony up to the table and make an offer at 12:01 AM on May 1st that Clemens just can't refuse? If we wanna make it back to the World Series, we need Clemens, period.

 

Clemens doesn't have the endurance he once did. It is hard for him to be as effective at the end of a season as he was at the beginning going by last year.

He is a year older now. The late start will help him. Backe is hurt. Clemens can only help us. He can be dominant for many games still. Who doesn't need that?

The only thing is that we have to have other options as well in case he goes down, or runs out of steam.

Plus he will be good insurance if Nieve goes back to working with Elvis Costello

 

I don't get all this back to the Yankees talk I'm hearing. I'm sure the Astros are willing to offer him a fat paycheck, maybe not quite as much as the Yankees but still worthwhile...especially to be pitching at home (which was the reason he came out of his original retirement in the first place).

The arbitration should have nothing to do with it. If he wanted to be offered arbitration, he should have said he wanted to pitch for sure.

And if you ask me, the Astros have a better chance of getting back to the WS than the Yankees. The only issue may be money, which he shouldn't be needing too bad.

 

Clemens would not be anywhere close to being as effective for the Yankees as he would be if he just stuck with the NL.

The AL has gotten just that much better since he left... you have middle of the road teams like Baltimore, Toronto, and Texas with FAR more power top to bottom than any of the elite teams in the NL. And that's before you get to the powerhouse teams (Red Sox, White Sox, Angels, Cleveland) that not only have good lineups, but pitching that actually beats those lineups.

Hell, if Randy Johnson is getting roughed up in NY (in the NL, he'd still be a 20 game winner with a sub 3 ERA), I don't see Roger (who wasn't as good as Randy 2 years ago when Rocket stole the Cy Young) duplicating his NL success back in the AL.

 

Nice little snippet from the Buster Olney chat I was talking about in the other thread....

Andrew (Boston, MA): Buster, Say this morning on Cold Pizza your guess on what Clemens is going to do. I think your reasoning is pretty sound, but have you actually heard which way he is leaning? At this point, it looks like the Stros, Sox, and Yanks will all be contenders. He has ties to all three places. Do you think money will really be the deciding factor? Thanks and keep up the great work.

Buster Olney: (2:22 PM ET ) Andrew: Thanks. First off, anybody who tells you they know for sure where Clemens is going is simply not being truthful; I think a lot of stuff has to play out. This is my guesstimate, based on talking with friends of Roger. I think if Drayton McLane makes a major bid out of the box -- $13 to $14 million -- then I think he'll go back to Houston. If Drayton comes in at less than full speed -- say, at $9 to $10 million -- I think the Yankees will get him, blowing away all other offers. The Yankees will have the biggest offer on the table, undoubtedly, and they also have some good personal history with Roger -- with Torre, Cashman, Jeter, Posada, Rivera and even George Steinbrenner, who all got along well with Roger and appreciated him. If you recall, Roger retired and then signed with Houston, and because of the way it played out, the Yankees got stiffed a draft pick because they respected his stated desire to retire. But neither Steinbrenner nor Cashman complained about that; they handled that graciously. So I do think that while Roger has that Boston history, I think his personal ties will sway him back to New York if Houston doesn't make an offer suitable to him.

 

Typical Olney, and his New York-centric view of things.

"Clemens will go back to NY because they could have been more mad at him for leaving our glorious team and going to play in a podunk town... but they didn't."

As if unretiring to play for your hometown team is some great "sin" in the baseball world, and requires some form of punishment.

I guarantee you, had the situation been reversed (Roger from NY, retires from another team and ends up unretiring to play for NY), he would be deified more than any other NY-created Sports-god.

 

Yes we need him. He will be rested and ready to make a run at the playoffs at full strength. Last year he was simply wore out at the end of the year. I like the young pitchers, but its different pitching in June then it is in September.