yeah i think if we got the #1 pick you could trade for KG or someone like that. throw in head or something with Juwon howard. that would work great.
Top Three Pick: Let's get Gay. The only downfall is - he plays the same position McGrady plays.... Maybe we can let McGrady play the two. Adam Morrison. The guy can score! If we aren't in the top 3 - hopefully Brandon Roy is avaliable. I heard he's good at penetratoring and going to the rim. He can beat his man off the dribble. Also rebound as well. Maybe J.J. Redick. A great shooter and can hit those 3s. This is what we desperately need. He's a good offensive player - but he's not a great defender and he is only 6'4. But with Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady - I think J.J. Redick will have many many open looks. He's almost automatic from the free-throw line.
Currently, we have an 8.2% chance of getting of the top 3 picks. How much did our win against Denver hurt us? Well, if we had one less loss, there would have been a three-way tie for 6-7-8 position. Suppose, in the worst case, we ended up in the 8th spot (again). Because we get to split lottery balls with the 6th and 7th position, we would have had a significantly better shot at one of the top 3 picks. Here's the break down in the scenario that we lost to Denver as we were supposed to: Code: 6 7 8 1 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 2 5.2% 5.2% 5.0% d 3 6.0% 6.0% 5.9% r 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% a 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% f 6 44.0% 0.0% 0.0% t 7 35.0% 55.2% 0.0% 8 5.1% 26.8% 67.7% p 9 0.1% 2.4% 16.2% i 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% c 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% k 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Even if we ended up 8th, we would have had a 15.3% chance of landing a top 3 pick, versus only an 8.2% shot as it is now. In other words, we cut our chances of landing a top 3 pick by almost half for a stinking meaningless win.
Thanks durvasa. Do you have the probabilities breakdown of our current position for the other possible picks: i.e 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th.
Actually I found the answer: 1st: 2.3% 2nd: 2.7% 3rd: 3.2% 8th: 72.5% 9th 18.4% 10th 0.9% 11th negligibile From this cool site. You can also do some 20 lottery simulation at the same time. http://www.geocities.com/benschuarmer/draftlotto.html
This is what it is currently: Code: [b] 8[/b] 1 2.3% d 2 2.7% r 3 3.2% a 4 0.0% f 5 0.0% t 6 0.0% 7 0.0% p 8 72.5% i 9 18.4% c 10 0.9% k 11 0.0% 12 0.0% 13 0.0% 14 0.0% edit: Oh, I see you got the answer.
dang that kind of sucks, we have a better chance at moving down a spot then getting one of the top 3 picks... : (
took me 4 go's to get a to get the number 3 pick took me 24 go's to get the number 2 pick took me 29 go's to get the number 1 pick interesting to note i noticed toronto getting the number 1 pick alot
The probabilities are not cumulative, shouldn't this read we have a 3.2% chance of getting a top three pick?
Yes. They are cumulative. There's a reason why we have a greater chance at obtaining the 2nd or the 3rd pick. When a team gets the top pick, it's lotto balls are taken out of the equation for the next pick. For example, if Portland gets the 1st pick, its 250 lotto balls are effectively eliminated from consideration for the 2nd pick. Making the chances of a bounce favoring the Rockets greater.
Chances of getting 1st pick OR 2nd pick OR 3rd pick would be the sum of the chances of getting each. Note that all the probabilities for 1 through 14 sum up to 100%.
