http://www.82games.com/dennis.htm Blueprint for an NBA Championship Team by Dennis Gallagher The launch of the recent 82games.com Research Program has brought us a flurry of very interesting ideas for NBA analytical articles, many of which we hope will eventually find their way to publication on the site. I often hear that an NBA team needs two “superstar” players to compete for a title. Yet every year general managers pair so-called superstars only to fall short of playoff success. Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis are the latest superstar pairing, and another year of doom and gloom has already been predicted for the Knicks. What separates superstars like Marbury and Francis from the true “championship superstars” who can lead a team to an NBA title? In Harbingers of Fate, 82games.com explored whether a team with a player who won an individual award or statistical crown was likely to win an NBA championship in the same season. But by the time individual awards such as the league’s Most Valuable Player are announced, the season is over, playoff rosters are set and the trading deadline has long passed. Not until the off-season do teams have the opportunity to retain, trade for or sign via free agency these players in the hopes of making a championship run. Can individual player awards and statistical achievements in one season foretell team success in subsequent seasons? To answer this question, I reviewed the rosters of the 49 championship teams from the 1956-57 Celtics through the 2004-05 Spurs and noted the presence post-season award winners and individual statistical leaders from prior years. The result is a blueprint for an NBA championship team and a list of the true championship superstars who can take a team to an NBA title. WHICH INDIVIDUAL AWARDS AND STATISTICS PREDICT TEAM SUCCESS? 92% of NBA Champions had a recent All-NBA 1st Team Selection Of the past 49 NBA Champions, 45 had a player named All-NBA 1st team during the 4 years preceding the championship season. In other words, an NBA championship roster should include a Top 5 caliber player operating at the top of his game. Only 4 NBA champions failed to have a player named All-NBA 1st team during the 4 years preceding the championship season. Two of these teams, the 1976-77 Portland Trailblazer and the 1978-79 Seattle Supersonics had players—Bill Walton and Dennis Johnson, respectively—who were named All-NBA 1st Team in subsequent seasons. The other two teams, the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons and 1969-70 New York Knicks, had Top 10 caliber players who were named All-NBA 2nd Team the prior season. The MVP is usually awarded to a player named to the All NBA 1st Team, and provides an advantage over other All NBA selections. Over 65% of all NBA Champions had a player named the league’s MVP in one of the four seasons prior to winning the NBA title (over 75% if you look beyond four years). 81% of NBA Champions had a recent All-Defensive 1st Team Selection Does defense win NBA championships? All-Defensive teams were first named following the 1969-70 season. Since that time, 29 of 36 NBA champions had at least one player named All-Defensive 1st Team during the 4 seasons prior to the championship season. When All-Defensive 2nd Team selections are considered, the percentage jumps to 89% of NBA champions. Even the 7 teams without an All-Defensive honoree had All-Defensive caliber players on the roster. Players on five of these championship teams were named All-Defensive 1st Team in a subsequent season, and the other two championship teams, the 1974-75 Golden State Warriors and the 1980-81 Boston Celtics, included at least two players who were named All-Defensive 2nd Team in a subsequent season. The defensive player of the year (DPOY) award is usually given to an All-Defensive 1st Team selection. Since the DPOY award was created, 12 of the 22 NBA Champions had a previous DPOY winner on the roster. 92% of NBA Champions had a Player Ranked in the Top 8 in Efficiency the Preceding Season Which statistical leaders are important to a championship team? I found correlations between championship teams and the prior season’s top 10 scorers and top 10 rebounders. Leaders in assists, blocked shots and steals were less relevant to championship success the following season. The statistical leaders who appeared most on championship rosters were leaders in the NBA’s efficiency statistic. Recently adopted as an official statistic by the NBA, efficiency is a measure of a player’s overall effectiveness. According to efficiency statistics published by www.basketballreference.com, of the past 49 NBA Champions, 45 had a player who finished in the Top 8 in efficiency the preceding season. BUILDING A CHAMPIONSHIP TEAM STEP 1: Acquire a Championship Superstar Approach #1: Acquire a Top 5 caliber player Only two NBA Champions failed to include a player named to the All-NBA first team during their careers. These players are easy to identify as all but 4 NBA championship teams included players named All-NBA 1st Team in the prior four seasons. Approach #2: If you fail to acquire a Top 5 caliber player, then you need a Top 5 caliber defender. Only two NBA Champions failed to include a player named to the All-Defensive first team during their careers, and each of these teams included Top 5 Players. Approach #3: Clear salary cap space for next year. No NBA team has won a championship without a Top 5 player or Top 5 defender. STEP 2: Add a championship sidekick (or two) Every NBA championship roster included a Top 10 caliber player or Top 10 defender as a sidekick. Most championship sidekicks can be identified by looking at players named All-NBA 1st or 2nd Team or All-Defensive 1st or 2nd Team in one of the prior 4 seasons. All told, 86% of all championship rosters included at least one sidekick with a previous All-NBA or All-Defensive selection, and over half of the championship rosters (57%) included 2 or more sidekicks with a previous All-NBA or All-Defensive selection. STEP 3: Make sure one of your players (superstar or sidekick) can defend No team has won an NBA title without a Top 10 caliber defender. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Interesting read. There is more to the article than what I posted but this is the most important part. With all the negative threads out there, I figured i'd start one emphasizing the need for optimism. According to this logic, we are on the right path for building a championship team. Step #1 - Acquire a championship superstar We are all fully aware that a healthy T-Mac would fit this description and is a top 5 caliber player. Plus, the sky is still the limit for Yao. If Yao continues to improve he may very well end up becomming our best player. Step #2 - Add a championship sidekick (or two) Whether the so-called experts want to admit it or not, Yao is becomming one of the best and most dominant players in the league. He's improved every year he's been in the league and has raised his game to a completely different level since the All-Star break. According to Gallagher's blueprint, an ideal sidekick for your championship superstar would be a top 10 caliber player and/or an All-NBA 1st or 2nd team player. Yao has most certainly earned a spot on the All-NBA 1st team and has played like a top 10 caliber player since the All-Star break. Step #3 - Make sure one of your players (superstar or sidekick) can defend. Gallagher's research has concluded that no NBA team has won a championship without a top 10 calibur defender. We all know that T-Mac and Yao can defend, the question is are they on that "top 10 caliber" level? T-Mac made one of the best players in the league in Dirk Nowitzki a helpless non-factor in the playoffs last year. But do you really want your "championship superstar" having to focus so much energy on both ends of the floor? It's obviously impossible to go back in time to the trade deadline and try to trade for the seemingly ideal player in Ron Artest. According to this logic, if we added maybe the best defender in the league to our team right now it would be, as our boy Cuttino Mobley put it best, "it's over". My question that I will put out to all of you is do you agree with this blueprint and if so, do you agree that we're following the rights to assembling a championship level basketball team? How do we go about acquiring this top 10 caliber defender or do we already have it? Does this make you re-think your off-season strategy at all? For instance, if you conclude you want to see us add a young player with top 10 caliber defensive potential, does that mean you consider drafting a player like Shelden Williams or Rajon Rondo instead of some of the more "sexy" picks that have been discussed? Maybe a Maurice Ager? Or going after a Matt Harpring through free agency?
This is a very interesting research and quite meaningful. Thanks for sharing with us baller4life315. Given the facts here, we still have one more year to contend for the championship as TMac was named the All-NBA 1st team in 02-03 season and therefore in 06-07, we still have a Top 10 Caliber Player 4 years preceeding our championship season. If Yao was elected into the All-NBA 1st team this season (statistically he is the best center in the league now), we may have another 4 years to contend for the trophy.
Great article! When I checked last week, Yao was #9 in efficency. This is the most telling and the most underrated stat in basketball. Yao should also be NBA first team center this year, no doubt about it. We know that Yao can defend and should continue to improve. TMac was a top five player before his back went out. Hopefully he rehabs and strengthens his back over the summer and we see him back to his old form next year.
But do you really want your "championship superstar" having to focus so much energy on both ends of the floor? YES Dream Pippen Jordan Dumars Kobe Bird and beleive it or not even Magic all these guys were stars on both ends of the court why can't T-mac and Yao do it.
This article just makes me wished we had Picked up Artest... I wish we offered alot outside of Yao and T-mac to get him.
if yao plays like he has since all start break next year he will be cnsidered a top 5 player. even this year he might make the all nba first team. tmac is actually the sidekick once yao matures. and having a top 10 sidekick is perfect according to the stats. yao is #9 in EFF. if he passes one more guy next year we can check that off as well. yao and tmac can make the top 10 in scoring and rebounding. the only thing we are missing is a defender and a second sidekick (aka 3rd option). what top ten defenders are available?
Interesting stuff... why do we have to break from the mold that got us 2 championships??? PG - legit point guard not afraid to take it to penetrate & dish or hit the cold blooded three (S.Cassell & K.Smith) SG - ill tempered scrappy yet streaky shooter (V.Maxwell) mixed with a poised "let me game do the talking scorer"; not necessarily shooter (Clyde) SF - long on the ball defender who possess 2 pertinent skills, the post-entry pass & ability to knock down a 20 footer (R. Horry) PF - agile rebounder with good hands, who can also defend on the other end (O.Thorpe) C - freakin gazelle mixed with david copperfield. quiet yet intimidating. instills fear in the paint (Dream) bench - players with a specialty: defense & 3 pt - (M.Elie), rebound & hustle (C.Brown, C.Hererra), 3 pt assassin (M.Bullard, T.Murray), PG w/energy (S.Brooks), big jump shooter (P.Chilcutt), big bodies to spell PF & C (C.Jones, P. Miller, Z.Tabak) lets not forget the most important position of COACH - one who knows the real meaning of a balanced team (mix up offensive sets to allow players to be creative and not styme them play after play while playing defense and making the opposing team take outside shots instead of high percentage gimme's) - Rudy T.
I was merely bringing it up for discussion as a much smaller aspect of the greater point of how this "blueprint" applies to our current squad. A greater point which you obviously missed. Of course T-Mac can and will have to play championship level defense but that doesn't necessarily mean he has to be the best defender out on the floor.
damn it. deke made the nba defensive team 4 years ago. this was our year! the sad part is... i don't see any chance of getting a top 10 defensive player. every team with a great defensive player seems set on keeping him. http://aol.nba.com/history/awards_defensiveteams.html
This article isn't all that meaningful, really. What does it say? You have to have really good players to win championships. And it can't be just one of them. Moreover, if you don't have at least one really really really good player, if you have a whole lot of really really good players, you may be okay also. Awesome conclusion!
Thank you. For a minute there I thought I was in bizarro world. Almost every premise in that article is seriously flawed. 1. Even a first team All-NBA player isn't necessarily a top 5 player in the league, much less a 3rd teamer being a top 15 player. 2. The article doesn't compare championship teams with non-championship teams who may have more of "the right stuff" than the winners. 3. You can take every championship team and look back and see how they did it, but every blueprint is different. In the Piston's case specifically their length, team speed and depth are a hell of a lot more significant than the awards they've received. Perhaps having 4 all-stars in the same year is significant, but golly gee if that's a blueprint thats enough to make a GM's head explode. 4. Awards follow success ergo being successful is significant somehow in building a championship team. How about this? Get a MVP who's also a Defensive Player of the Year and NBA Final MVP and filler and a championship is a lock. baller4life315, I still enjoyed the historical analysis in the article.
Dream - a center, it's different. perimeter defenders have to chase players all around the court. Pippen - jordan's sidekick who didn't have to carry the load offensively, so he defended the top perimeter scorer. Jordan - had pippen to defend the other teams top guy so he could focus more on offense. Dumars - wasn't his team's top player. Kobe - wasn't his team's top player. didn't have to carry the load for the entire game so he could expend energy on defense ... which isn't looking too hot these days now that he's the main option. Bird - huh? good defensive footwork and great in the passing lanes, but by no means would you confuse him with the others. and beleive it or not even Magic - michael cooper was the lakers' stopper.
well the way we're looking now isn't close to how we were looking 12 years ago... we NEED to change back into what got us to championships instead of experimenting with the hurt and yao ... i mean here and now...
The Efficiency part is good because it is objective statistics. The Awards parts is less convincing (though not totally without merit). Awards are given out by opinions. And opinions are affected by team success. While there are clearly correlations between awards and team success, which is the cause of which is not so clear.
usually the teams with the most wins in the regular season go farthest in the playoffs. and usually the teams with the most wins get the most awards. kind of a weird article.
Because there's not another center like Dream? There's not a center that is anywhere close to being able to beat everybody downcourt during defensive transition. Because there aren't any real power forwards anymore... they all want to take turn around jump shots and handle the ball or get the photoshoot alley-oop. No glass-eaters out there. Shawn Marion is playing PF and is one of the leading rebounders in this league? Are you kidding me? Doesn't happen with people like Cage, Thorpe, Willis, Oakley, etc. playing. Marion would have been laid out by week two. Where we could emulate that championship team and others, like the Walton Trailblazers, is set up an offense that relies on cuts and shooters and gives Ming the option of busting the double team or making a solid, easy pass.
Interesting read. Basically, to me, it says that you better use your "2 max-contracts" wisely. Signing a Joe Johnson or Kenyon Martin to maxtype $$ seems like a recipe for disaster. I think the Rockets have done that. Now if these guys can just stay out of the infirmary.
Easy, I agree with everything you posted. And you're right about the efficiency part being significant, but there are hellacious anomalies even based on that factor alone. The most profound one is the (ugh) Stockton/Malone combo in '97 with a pretty good team around them that should have had Jordan and Pippen (et al) easily whipped given efficiency. The NBA game is just the least suited sport that yields itself easily to stats. And when they are referred to it gets meaningless to a sharp point. What I do love about that article is it gives hope to fans everywhere of every team. Gentlemen place your bets.
What I love about that article is it's point is basically "get great players." Everyone knows the "blueprint" for a championship team is getting great players. The hard part is actually getting them.
