Draft Day Question

No way we get to #5 with a second rounder from #10. We would not even go up one spot for a second rounder.

But with good luck we can make it to #6.

 

Agreed. The big fish are picks 1,2,3. After that it's a big drop off. I don't know that I'd even want to move up if we have a clear shot at the SG we need in either Brewer or Redick. Who would you want to reach for? We need someone that can play Nov 1. I would disregard freshmen like Josh McRoberts or foreign projects. I also think we need to be focused on SG (complete void) or PF (to make it easier to dump Swift/Howard). So despite the low opinion of Alston on this BBS, I would contend that our first rounder should not go to one of the many points out there (Foye, Williams, Rondo).

I can not fathom Cha, Chi, or Por trading away the rights to Gay, Aldridge, or Morrison. They might not be superstars, but they're sure bets as starters in the frontcourt. Behind them, everyone has a question mark.

If I were to do anything, I would consider trading down for Sheldon Williams or Josh Boone. If Redick and Brewer are off the board or we don't like what we see in workouts, I'd make a play for one of these two guys to be our bruiser next to Yao. Boone doesn't have much offense, but he'd be a good banger.

NO might be a trade possibility if we send Swift and the #31 for their two first rounders.

Evan

 

I think, at this point and given what the Rockets' team needs are, that the Rockets would either stand pat with a late lottery pick or move up a few spots to the mid-lottery (7 or 8).

If the Rockets stick with something in the 10-12 range, I would hope that they would take a long look at JJ Redick. Of course, there are concerns about his height, quickness and athleticism. Still, I really believe that Redick is at worst another Steve Kerr, which is EXACTLY the type of role player the Rockets could use most.

If the Rockets can move up (or if these players fall or the Rockets just end up with a higher pick), I'd like to see them take Brandon Roy of Washington (first choice) or Randy Foye of Villanova (second choice). Roy is considered the best true shooting guard in the draft and is a great shooter and all-around player. Foye may be a bit undersized (listed at 6-3/6-4) and will probably end up being a combo guard. I picture him as a better version of Luther Head.

With the top names of the draft all being front-line prospects (positions at which the Rockets do not badly need help), there is probably little chance that they'd make a trade to move up unless they fell in love with Roy or Foye but thought that they'd be gone by their pick. Better to wait for a top guard to fall to the Rockets pick.

 

Do not forget Brandon Roy i think he is currently more NBA ready that Rudy Gay and with his style of playing big in terms of creating his own shot in th paint yet being efficient from th perimeter I think he could do Houston lots of good if he was still around

 

Brandon Roy and Rodney Carney are my top 2 choices for shootings guards. For the powerforwards i like McRoberts. Joakim Noah, obviously Aldrdige but i dont see him falling, and Sheldon Williams.

I'm not sold on the euro dirk just because very few have panned out and i'm skeptikal



My thoughts on the top 2 college players is that Morrison is going to have trouble getting his shot of because he will only be average height and will now be skinny at the 3spot. Also his diabietes will keep him out longer with his injuries as we are seeing with his current bout with the flu. We dont need another player with chronic injury issues. I think Wally Scerbiak was a better pro prospect.

JJ Reddick i think best case scenario is Jeff Hornecek which is a good career but he still doesn't do all the intangibles that jeff did and doesn't play near the defense at this point. The shooting is amazing and he will probably have a great career as a shooter off the bench. There are players who have potential all star written on them.

 

Noah is my first pick. His motor just won't quit. For all of Gay, and Aldridge's talent, there are games where they just seem to coast or disappear. And Noah might even be on par with these guys talent-wise (size, athleticism, quickness, skills). Not to mention that he is turning up his game big time during this tournament run.

There's no way I'd take the Italian. The last thing we need is to strike out on this draft pick.

And I don't know about NO trading the 2 #1s for Stro, it doesn't seem like they are that interested in him anymore. But I can imagine the Nets going after Stro with their 2 #1s which are in the 20's.

 

lets pretend the lotto and draft happened today. using realgm's lotto simulator here is your lotto up to our pick.

1. bob's
2. blazers
3. bulls (via knicks)
4. hawks
5. magic
6. raps
7. sonics
8. celtics
9. warriors
10.wolves
11.rox

i tihnk we will pass the warriors and celtics for sure. they are playing good bball and don't have hard schedules remaining. the sonics are playing well but are still a few games back of us. the wolves may tank as well. i think we will manage to pass one of them giving us the 8th pick.

so without further ado, the mock!

1. bob's - morrison
2. blazers - aldridge
3. bulls - bargnani
4. hawks - gay (of course a swingman!)
5. magic - roy
6. raps - noah
7. sonics - carney
8. rockets - we have our pick between Tyrus Thomas, Sheldon Williams, JJ Redick, and Randy Foye. the fact that we could finish with the #11 pick and still get one of these guys is great. they would all fit very well with us.

there you have it.

 

I think you're a little over-pumped on Noah due to his tourney run. I mean, the guy wasn't THAT great during the year. Not very consistent with his effort and all. His tourney is boosting his stock, but it shouldn't be assumed that this is the guy he'll always be..

 

There seems to be a lot of XENO Phobia about our Top 10 pick being a bust!
Except for dumb picks like Rafael A ( tornto) and SKita- most of the top to 12 picks that were foreign have been block buster picks.

Pau Gasol, Dirk, Yao are All Stars -

If you look at the Number of American Players in the TOP 3 that went bust, you will see clearly that this is a very valid fact.

 

Bull****. Over the past 5 years, here are some foreign players out of that top 12:

Fran Vazquez
Yaroslav Korolev
Rafael Araujo
Andris Biedrins
Darko Milicic
Mickaël Pietrus
Nickoloz Tskitishvili
Nene Hilario
Sagana Diop
Vladimir Radmanovic

None of those are "blockbuster" guys, and most will turn out to be busts. Yao and Pau are top foreign picks that are the exception - not the rule.

 

Hello! If you want all of the TOP 10 Picks to be alls stars- then go check the record again.

I clearly mentioned Rafael and Skita- and Skita is shooter- Mike D'Antoni is not an idiot to pick him up.

Korloev has not yet played significant minutes ( the clippers have big expectations) and Biedrins is doing well for Golden State.

If you think Darko is a bust- you obviously have not seen him play. I am pretty sure you did not see Fran Vasquez play either! ( Since he is still not with the Magic yet!)


Nene, Diop, Radmonovic, Pietrus are BY no means a bust ( not suggesting they are all stars but they are impact players at the very least.


Barring the Two- everyone else has contributed.

Do you want me to recount the number of Kwame and Darius miles' that were no where near the hype - EVEN TODAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Yeah, I'm pretty down on foreign guys and freshmen. Too many are projects that are out of the league or scrubs by the time their rookie deal ends. That's not to say none will pan out, but I'd rather play it safe with a Shane Battier than get burned with Eddie Griffins and Nachbars.

Evan

 

It is one thing to say you want someone without surprises and quite another thing to say that foreign players in the top 10 are busts!

I also feel that if Shelden williams can be our Answer at the Power forward this would be a memorable draft. There are quite a few shooters in the Draft- but I am not inclined to bet the The First pick on a shooter ( Unless it is Adam Morrisson/ Gay). Reddick is too much of a risk- but if that kid ever becomes a Ray allen type producer, then I will definitely apologize!

 

blah blah blah.

you said top 12 foreign rookie picks were "blockbuster" picks. You mention Yao, Pau and Dirk as top 12 picks that are stars(wow, 3 in 8 years, 2 of which took years to develop), yet conveniently(sp?) want to leave off the busts. And NONE of those guys I listed are "blockbuster" and NO other players other than the big 3 were "blockbuster". Make up your damn mind and stop throwing out all this stuff if you are going to continually backtrack.

Bottom line : most foreign players are projects. Projects that don't usually pan out. Just like the aforementioned high schoolers you mentioned. If you want to gamble on a foreign player, do it later on in the draft.

Now that doesn't mean I'm ruling out frenchie, but when you have a better selection of players, being a foreigner IS a strike against you. Esp when you are a team like the rockets, looking for an immediate contributor.

 

Ideally I would love for the Rockets to be able to grab Noah in the 1st round and then move Swift for a young vet swingman.

 

A better selection of Players is what the Draft order normally reflects. Routinely players that are touted as the next big thing in basketball typically drop dramatically on draft day.

I repeat the Of the TOP 12 players in recent drafts( ie positions 1 through 12)- execept Skita and Rafael- Most foreign players have worked out. Atleast 3 of them have become superstars. Assuming there were 12 players in the last 5 drafts- that were foreign born ( in the top 12 for Draft 2000-2005) that would be a 25% chance of Landing a Superstar!

Feel free to take percentages of the US born Players and see for yourself that Foregin born players are definitely not at a disadvantage when it comes to becoming super stars- when given the chance.


Picking Power Forwards and Centers from Foreign countries and blaming them for not having the physical attributes to play NBA ball right away is ridiculous. European players in General are finesse players and Far better shooters ( now let us not start off saying TMac or Kobe cant shoot!) than the average American University player who enters the draft.

What we need to focus on is the Skills someone brings- not which country they come from.

 

Seeing as you can use the quote function, I'll ask that you not proceed to put words in my mouth.

I feel we need someone ready to come in and play for us. I don't think that a guy like Bargnani is a good fit for us since (a) he will need time to adjust to the nba game like almost all foreign or (domestic) young guys, (b) has questionable value as a defender or rebounder, and (c) is a gamble. I also wouldn't trade up for Josh McRoberts, since he's not ready to play against bigs in the league yet.

Foreign guys very clearly have a place in this league. Unfortunately, sketchy scouting and over zealousness post-Dirk and Peja led to a lot of crummy picks in the last 6 years, including a good number from us (Turkan, Badian, Boki, etc). Kobe similarly brought about a lot of stupid HSer picks (Kwame, Curry, etc).

An even bigger point is, we don't need to find the next Dirk out there. We need solid, reliable role players to fit in next to our two franchise guys. We need a banger and we need a SG that can drill from the ouside and/or create off the dribble. Darko may become a fantastic guy in a couple seasons, but we need to make our title runs now, not develop guys for several years. We need sure bets and we need them at two key positions.

Please don't try and twist this into a make-believe race issue.

Evan