To me, the worst thing we can do at this point is to trade away our future for some quick fix just to get to squeeze into the playoffs and lose in the first round. It'd be a long shot for us to be competitive even if we did get a good trade. IMO, it's better to use this season to develop chemistry for the current core, and to develop our young players. If we don't make the playoffs, that's fine. We'll get a lottery pick next season and maybe sign some FA with the MLE.
What future? Aside from Yao, TMac and Luther Head, we've got bupkus!! Anyone fantasizing about the 8th seed has spent WAY too much time inside their own minds... There's NOBODY aside from the big 2 that I wouldn't trade in a heartbeat if it meant we could go into next year with a true outside scoring threat and somebody who can board without collecting 5 fouls in 5 minutes of playing time. Hell, I'd even Trade Yao is I thought I could get the Rookie from Milwaukee and another draft pick. Yao is likely to have continued trouble with his toe/foot for the rest of his career and foot problems are the death knell for big men. Juwan Howard has ZERO trade value, Wesley and Mooch have only slightly better value because of their expiring contracts, making Anderson and Head our ONLY real trade bait to go with Wes and Mooch contracts. Because of his reasonable contract, Stromile could be traded but I'm willing to hold onto him as our backup center for when Deke finally crashes for good. I'm absolutley beyond stunned that we've got SO MANY PLAYERS who cannot hit an open jump shot. I thought it was a prerequisite for playing in the NBA... to at least be able to hit an open mid range jump shot. There's no way we make the playoffs!!! Last year, I agreed to "eat crow" should we make it past the first round, and even posted apologies after we went ahead on Dallas. However, I now feel justified in saying that as good as the JVG/Carrol Dawson duo were last year, they've been equally horrific in their choices this year.
1) I would consider Yao out until after the All-Star break. In 5 weeks from now, he can start practicing again and getting his conditioning back. Until then, he has to be off his feet. The 5 week mark would land on the NYK-Phi road trip Feb 5/6. Bet serious money that he will NOT be activated as soon as the 5 weeks are up. Assuming we rush him back so that he can participate in the All-Star game, He'd return at home against Utah (2/11) or NYK (2/12). That means he'd miss 22 or 23 games, not 18. And there is a very real possibility that the staff might hold him out until after the ASG, which would mean 26 games missed. 2) Going with the "nice" scenario of 22 games, we will face 11 games against opponents with a winning record and 5 games against the league's bottom 4. With the return of Alston (which I personally expect to be much more of a boost than others here) and maybe Barry, it's fair to expect 9 or 10 wins. The final 5 games before the ASG are NYK, @LAC, @PHO, LAC, GSW. Couple this with a rusty Yao Ming and it'll be optimistic to expect a 2-3 close. 3) So let's cross our fingers and say post-ASG we have a 22-31 record with 29 games remaining and a full healthy roster (minus Sura). We would need a 22-7 tear to get 44 wins. Now last year at this time, I was similarly pessimistic about our chances. I will do the same thing I did then, and say I will cheerfully drop $20 in the tipjar if the Rockets prove me wrong again. Evan
Just go ahead waste your time to figure out how Rox can make the playoff MATHMATICALLY. Heck, in theory, Rox can still make the playoff with 4 games behind and 4 games left. But you have to face the reality here. Without a significant trade and REAL improvement on its roster, this team is going nowhere. It is laughable seeing ppl exited about future returns of Rafer Alston and Derek Anderson because they forgot these two guys were widely regarded as most disappointing acquisitions during the off-season, BEFORE they got injured. Now they are life saviors? I do believe when Yao comes back, Rox can play .500 games rest of the way with him and TMac both on the court. But it will be too late. By that time, it will be too deep a hole to climb. Tank for a good lottery pick will be a better option.
I agree with others that what is relevant is the 4 games out of 8th... but let's look at the 66% clip. Last year, we won at 62.5% in Jan, 70% in Feb, 75% in Mar, and 70% in Apr. Obviously, we are not guaranteed the same this year, but as we get bodies back on the court, it's quite doable.
exactly, and this is coming from someone who thought Alston and Anderson were good aquisitions. The Rockets played a good game last night, not the best but a good game and they lost to the Hornets. The Rockets with their current roster have to play above their heads to beat mediocre teams. Anderson will bring a little help in the sense he will be an extra body but I don't know what to expect from Alston. bottom line I don't see this team being competitive till yao gets back.
I was as dissapointed in Alston/Anderson as much as anyone but, with Alston, at least, I think the jury is definitely still out. The guy played 8 games, many of which were without Tracy, and still did a decent job dishing the ball. The dissapointment was in his shot, but EVERYONE was shooting poorly at that point - heck, it seemed like Wesley didn't even make a shot for the first two weeks. Granted, everyone is still shooting poorly, but... I think it is useful, for the long run, to look at that 9-5 mark with both T-Mac and Yao. I also think management understood that our team was/is too old and was trying to get younger with Alston and Swift. We should try to continue that this offseason with the MLE again. But at the end of the day, this season, our role players right now aren't that much better than TMac's were in Orlando, because we are without Alston, Anderson, Barry and Sura. I haven't given up on this year yet, but I am a realist, and right now, the Rockets better just concentrate on winning 1 game, because darn if they aren't having a really hard time doing it. But for the long-term, I don't think there is as much reason to be down. Also, minor point, but making the 8th seed and missing the playoffs doesn't necessarily just drop you 1 slot in draft order. You have to remember the East, where it is likely that 1 team will finish under .500 and make the playoffs, and somewhat likely that the 7th seed in the East may also have a worse record than the West's 8th seed. So arguably, barely making the playoffs could drop you 2 or 3 draft spots. And the opportunity to win the lotto, of course. I think of any team, a fully healthy Rockets squad has as good a shot at any in the Conference (at any seed) to knock off the Spurs in the playoffs, but see absolutely no way they come close to sniffing the trophy this year. I know the Astros had that amazing turn-around, and I know the season is still relatively young, but maybe it is the Texans tank job or something, but honestly I wouldn't be too disappointed at this point missing the playoffs, not rushing Yao back, making some trades that are clearly for the future. The Rockets obviously do still need youth, athleticism, speed, etc., and one of the best places to find those qualities is through the draft.
Exactly. It's all about staying alive and doing whatever it takes to make the playoffs. I don't care what seed or who we would be playing. Given the current miserable state of this team, the utter thought of even making the playoffs sounds like some kind of great, noteworthy accomplishment. It's a completely different game in the playoffs and the sky is the limit if we can finally get everybody back healthy.
Any questions? There is no way this crappy team make playoff without a trade. Right now, the chance of makeing the playoff is indeed: 0
Y'all are gonna go crazy if you look at it like that...way too long-term. We're 4.5 games out of the 8th seed even after tonight's loss. This team(And I mean the team we are courting right now, minus Yao, minus Sura, etc...) needs to get inspired. Fast. Waiting for Yao to get healthy will result in too little, too late. We need to stay within striking distance(I'd say improve on our games back, as 4 games is a lot to make up in ~20 games) until Yao gets back. MemphisX = loser. And yes, it's totally different when a fellow Rockets fan does it.
man why the hell do you have to elaborate memphisX ? yeah what you said is so interesting and new.... whether rockets make it or not the actual wins needed will be lower than everyone predicts here. It's always like that.
