We are currently 10-17 with 55 games left to play. Historically the 8th seed has around 44 wins. Thus, we must go 34-21 to have a chance at acquiring the 8th seed. Luckily, we have a few players returning within the next few weeks, Rafer, maybe Jon Barry, maybe DA. Let's assume that they don't come back for a week or two. We have 4 games. During those 4 games, we go 2-2, bringing our record to 12-19. Then our three players return. There is about 18 more games until Yao returns. Assuming we play well (a big if), we can go 10-8, bringing our total to 22-27. Yao returns. Now to finish up the season, we have to go 22-11, winning at a 66% clip. and that is only to have a CHANCE at getting the 8th seed and facing the Spurs. Overall, my analysis is very, very optimistic. It does not take into account the break in period for recovered players to get back into shape or other injuries that may occur. Take my post as you will. All I speak is the truth.
who's our biggest competitor on the eight seed and do you think we can beat them?who do you think is the other top 7 playoff teams?
I made a post on another board that was similar to this one. So, I will repost it here... A) They are 10-17 right now which leaves 55 games to play. Let's say they play the next 8 games with the squad they have now. How many games do you estimate that they win during that stretch of 8? B) Then we're down to 47 games left. Let's say we get the injured players back, except Yao, and it takes them 5 games to shake the rust. How many of those 5 do we win? C) Now we're at 42 games remaining, and let's estimate that we play 17 more games with the full roster (minus Yao) until Yao returns in late Feb./early March. How many wins in that 17 game stretch with everyone back except Yao? D) At this point you've got 25 games left before the playoffs begin, and let's assume it takes Yao 5 games to get back into form upon his return to the lineup. How many wins in that stretch of 5 games? E) Now at full strength the Rockets have 20 games left with a hypothetically completely healthy roster. They have 10 of these games on the road, have 4 back-to-backs, they play Dallas twice and San Antonio THREE times. How many of these 20 do they win? Remember it's the end of a grueling 82-game season and they are the second oldest team in the league... My answers are: A) 2 of 8 B) 2 of 5 C) 8 of 17 D) 3 of 5 E) 11 of 20 So, that totals 26 wins for the remainder of the year. Add that to the current total of 10, and you have 36 wins and 46 losses. 36-46 isn't making the playoffs, obviously. Hell, reverse it and make it 46-36 and we possibly still don't make it. AND I WAS GENEROUS WITH MY ANSWERS!!!
Here's my short analysis... We're 4 games out with 55 left to play. That's all that matters. You guys are getting too far ahead of yourselves and going way too much into it. You never know what's going to happen to us or the teams ahead of us.
That's the only way I can look at it... otherwise, I might have to step in front of a bus. I might injure the bus. Blade Runner's are tough.
Well I wouldn't say that you're that generous. First off 46-36 is making the playoffs. Bank on it. The 7th and 8th seed right now is only 1 game above .500. Secondly when we get to full strength with Yao, we aren't going to go 11 out of 20. I don't care how many road games, back to backs, or who we play. And the oldest team in the league doesn't mean anything when nearly everyone sits for 10-30 games. This team proved last year that it can grove home or away against anybody (well except for San Antonio, but we did split with them). I buy everything else you said though. I can totally envision us going 4-13 or some ungodly record like that for the next few weeks. And if we do that then our season is done. Hell, the season's hanging in the balance right now. If we don't split the next 8 games, then I don't like our chances at all. I don't know what tricks CD has up his sleeve, in terms of trades, but he better pull something out if he doesn't want this season to go down the tubes.
Normally I would give us the benefit of the doubt too, but we have 5 of those 20 games against two teams that have had our number in recent matchups (and much longer than that in terms of the Spurs). I look at it like this: We'd probably split with Dallas, and no way we beat the Spurs 2 out of 3 or better, so that's 3 losses in those 5 games already. Out of the other 15 games, is it really that hard to believe that they could go 9-6 (to bring them to 11-9 in those last 20)? That's .600 ball right there...I mean, how much better do you really expect them to be?
This team is 9-5 when we have both Tmac and Yao. Based on the winning percentage, we would be 2nd in the Western Conference. Let's hope it wont be too late when we have both of them playing together again. Go Rockets!!!
I don't even look at the standings any more. I just can't see the Rockets name all the way down at the end of the column. I will not look at the rankings or care for the standings until the dam Rockets start winning some games.
I feel your pain. I think if this team can hover near .500 by the All star game, we will have a chance
I think it'll take more than 5 games for each player to get back to playing shape, especially Yao. These guys were off for a long time, you don't just jump back in.
Base on this rational analysis, we don't have much of a chance to make the playoff. I hope we are not going to have any more injury and everybody is back sooner than expected. The teams that are in the 7,8 spots right now, I hope they crumbled and fold and slip below the Rockets for some miraculous reasons.
Good analysis! But it's not only Rocket wins to consider here. We also will need to leap over a number of teams to get that 8th spot. Currently, the standings at the bottom of the Western Conference (non-playoff teams) are as follows: Denver 14-15 Utah 13-16 Seattle 12-15 NO/OKC 12-15 Sacremento 11-17 Rockets 10-17 Portland 10-18 That's 5 teams they'll need to pass somehow in order to reach the 8th spot which Golden State currently holds at 15-14 (the Lakers are 7th also at 15-14). I just don't know if this is possible. They'd have to go on a looong winning streak and that appears to be highly unlikely at this point given their current injury situation.
The rockets managment also have to think beyond this year. Swift and Alston were mistakes. They should try to trade them away for a more useful player or picks.We have some expiring contracts to try and turn into value. If we could go into next year with some young talent to go with Tmac and Yao we'd be much better off in the long run. We need a few cheap contracts to field a real team, because we can't really go after free agents. Tank Trade for value or picks, not star power Draft well. IF they do this, they will have a team. If they don't, they will pay for guys who do not contribute.
To get to .500 by the ASG, we'll have to be 16-10 (.600+) without Yao most of the way. That's very unlikely to me. My modest hope is that if we can keep within 3 games behind the 8th seed by the ASG, we might be able to make a move when we have a healthy team. Right now we are 4 games behind. Not losing ground with a depleted roster for the next month would be a good accomplishment.
