No ... we have to lose next week for that to happen, assuming GB and the Jets lose their games this weekend. http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/draft/update
yeah ab, I was gonna start this thread but I don't know what the tie-breaker situation is with the Pack and the Jets.
before this weekend started, the packers had a better opponents W-L percentage then us but the jets have a weaker W-L percentage then us. That's the key. We beat SanFran next weekend, we might have the the #2 pick. Nothing's for sure yet.
It's all based on strength of schedule. If 5 teams are tied with 3-13 records (that assumes that Green Bay and the Jets lose their final games and the Texans win theirs), strength of schedule will decide the draft order. The weaker the strength of schedule, the higher the pick and the Texans have one of the stronger schedules meaning they could drop all the way to picking 4th or 5th if they win next week.
Freakin A!!! New Orleans gave up the lead to DET in the last minute, so now if the Texans win next week against San Fran we might slide down to no.4 pick overall. Since the Texans strength of schedule (.546) is greater then GB (.510), Jets and Saints (.531) and if all of the teams have 3 wins, then the Texans will pick 4th.
That New Orleans collapse was a huge negative in our draft position. They had Detroit at 4th and 17 and then let them convert and go down the field for a game winning FG. That sucks. If we lose next week, we have the #1 pick. If we win, we likely have the #4 pick, based on strength of schedule tie breakers with New Orleans, Green Bay and New York. Green Bay's SOS is higher than ours, but New Orleans and New York's are weaker. The Jets still have a home game against Buffalo, a game they could win and then tonight against New England. Green Bay has two home games against good teams (Chicago and Seattle). New Orleans has a game left at Tampa Bay. Had New Orleans held on today, we would have had no worse than the #3 pick, barring any weird SOS movements.
If the Texans do not get the #1 pick, no better franchise than New Orleans to get the top choice. Do not worry though, the Texans control their own destiny and this New Orleans collapse just gives our beloved franchise more focus on the ultimate prize that awaits next week.
So, essentially, San Fransisco winning today did absolutely nothing for us. Because, either way, we have to lose to them next week to secure the top pick, correct?
Not so ... If Texans beat SF next week, both teams would have 3 wins, but the Texans would have the earlier pick due to having a lower SOS. So it does nothing with respect to the no.1 overall pick, but it does matter when determining first round selection slots.
Oops, after a second review of the SOS, if we won next week, and the SOS remained where it was going into this week (far from a certainty), the 49ers and Packers would have higher SOS than us, meaning we'd get the 3rd pick. Of course, a lot can change with this week and next week's games for SOS.
If they stay the same next week and we win, we'd be picking 4th according to this. Behind Green Bay, New Orleans, and the Jets. http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/draft/update
in deteremining the #1 pick, SOS is used as a tie breaker in that the team with the worst SOS gets the #1 pick.. Green Bay and SF are basically out of the race for #1.. it is us, the jets, and the saints.
How is Green Bay out of it? They have the weakest strength of schedule of all the 3 win teams. As it stands now if we lost next week, GB has the first pick. Edit: That is according to cbs sportsline. The GBNReport has different numbers, so I don't know. Basically it looks like if we win next week (and the other teams lose), we'll either pick 3rd or 4th.
I think what happened is that sportsline is only counting teams thus far played in figuring the sos, whereas GBN is counting all the teams on the schedule. Green Bay still has a 10 win Chicago team, and a 13 win Seattle team left, and I don't think that sportsline is figuring them in yet, which is stupid. They're going to go on their record regardless, so GBN's tabulation is closer to what the final sos will be.
