in my best elaine: things just. got. interesting... (astros)

I would love to have the offseason the Mets have had so far. They look pretty solid to me too.

 

They *were* solid last season. They improved by 12 games over their previous season, and were in the playoff race until early September.

 

I can't imagine the Phillies trading Abreu for Backe and Qualls. What a steal that would be for us. They'll have to get better offers than that.

 

The main argument here isn't whether or not they'd actually do it... its whether or not it would be worth it for the Astros (which you already seem to be sold on).

Also, its not just Backe and Qualls... its the ability to pay Abreu $30 million over 2 years. Not many teams have the capability to offer up solid players AND agree to pay all of that contract. The Cardinals are offering Jason Marquis, but are balking at paying all of that money (primarily because their payroll is inflated due to just Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, and Izzy).

In the end, the Phillies are desperate... they don't want to be strapped with his contract anymore (wouldn't it be weird that we traded them Wagner to avoid his contract, and they traded us Abreu to avoid his?).

 

I do not know about giving up Backe. Who would we place the microphone on in the playoffs?

 

Seems that most on here would tend to support that trade. I don't think of ya'll are looking at how much that would weaken our pitching and what Qualls has meant to us the last season and a half. Our pitching is what got us to the World Series. And now most of you seem ready to trade two of our more valuable pitchers for a mediocre offensive player in decline. I hope you're gonna happy with Wandy and Zeke as our 4 & 5 starters. Not to mention the weakening of our bullpen. In return for what? The rough equivalent of another Jason Lane. You guys need to stop looking at Abreu through rose-colored glasses.

 

Two of our most valuable pitchers???

So, according to you, we couldn't live without Backe and Qualls... but lets just forget the fact that they ranked behind (in terms of importance and performance):
1.) Oswalt
2.) Pettite
3.) Lidge
4.) Clemens
5.) Wheeler

So basically, you're saying that Qualls and Backe (who I have ranked 6th and 7th) were irreplaceable on last year's team?!?!? If that's the case, I'm glad you're not a fan of the Braves, Red Sox, or any other team that can't throw MVP's SEVEN MEN DEEP in their pitching staff. Qualls was the 7th inning guy only the ENTIRE year... that can be replaced. Backe missed a ton of the season (especially the parts where we had the best record in the majors), had 1 bad playoff performance, one average one, and one great one (about on par from what you'd get from Jeff Suppan, John Thomson, or Glendon Rusch.... and btw, those last three had much better regular seasons than Backe).

We have strong pitching... and we'll continue to have strong pitching if those guys leave. I already said that its not just about Abreu... its about adding to our weakness, by dealing from one of our strengths (and without having to deal two players anywhere near the top of importance in our area of strength).

 

We only say out pitching got us to the World Series because we had no hitting. The bottom line is if we are that inconsistent at the plate again next year and don't bring in help we probably don't even get back to the playoffs. Our pitching was phenominal, but I don't think we can count on them being quite that dominant again. If we get a lineup to get us to the playoffs, plus 3 good starters and a bullpen to get us through the playoffs we can get back.

Lets take a look at the numbers...

Abreu: .286 avg, 24 hr, 102 rbi, 117 BB, 134 SO, .879 OPS (588 AB)
Lane: .267 avg, 26 hr, 78 rbi, 32 BB, 105 SO, .815 OPS (517 AB)

They do have similar power, I'll give you that. The walks and OPS tell the story though...Abreu gets on base and produces runs, and he can also drive them in at least as good as Lane. I think that our biggest weakness last year was at the top of the lineup getting on base for the big hitters...sure Willy got on with an infield hit every now and then, but he really wasn't an ideal leadoff hitter being so undisciplined. Bidge is becoming more of a RBI guy that should be used toward the bottom half of the lineup. Abreu would be a perfect fit as the #2 or 3 hitter.

 

Hehe. Can't help myself. I don't want anyone else to miss this stuff.

Anyway. I'm with you about Biggio, Diehard Rocket. He is no longer a 1 or 2 hitter. How does this lineup look to you?

CF Taveras
RF Abreu
1B Berkman
3B Ensberg
2B Biggio
LF Lane
C Ausmus
SS Everett

 

Oh, I'm completely sold on it. That's why I just ignored the "Is it worth it?" argument - I think it's a no-brainer. I think the Phillies, in the end, will eat some of Abreu's contract - but not much - to get better players than Backe and Qualls.

I disagree.

First, I disagree with the idea that Backe and Qualls were "two of our more valuable pitchers". Qualls had a good year, and an excellent post-season - but as far as relievers go both Wheeler and Lidge were more valuable than he. Backe had an up and down year that was plagued by injuries - he was similarly inconsistent in the playoffs. As far as starters, he was the fourth most valuable. No one disputes that these are quality pieces of a team that went to the World Series - but they're pieces we can afford to trade. Qualls is important, yes, but he's also the 7th inning guy - at best a guy who challenges for the set-up role. Those guys can be found. Hell, we picked Wheeler up off the scrap heap and look how he did. Backe is an intriguing pitcher, and a local, and a guy who came up big in the playoffs. But he's also erratic with his control.

Secondly, I disagree with the assertion that Abreu is a rough analogue of Jason Lane. Aside from the differing approaches to hitting - I have no confidence in Lane hitting from behind in the count - Abreu drew 117 walks this year. Only Giles had more than that, and Lane had 32 in comparison. Really, 32 walks in 561 plate appearances is a pretty bad number. Abreu would be a major upgrade over Lane.

Whether or not it's worth the contract, I think that's an interesting discussion - but I believe Abreu is worth it. Of course, he only replaces Lane if Bagwell is healthy - if Bagwell can't go - Abreu replaces whoever we'd have to stick out there in left field.

 

now they just got LoDuca for a couple of kids

 

At the risk of incurring the wrath of Rocketman95, since this is a dreamcasting thread anyways, I'm still holding out hope Nick will revisit that Zito tidbit. I'm still salivating.

 

I'd do this deal in minute... look I love Backe but it's not like he's not irreplaceable. I mean c'mon there was a time when the big debate was whether or not to trade Daryle Ward and Scott Elarton to the Jays for Clemens....that seems really lopsided now doesn't it?

Think about it in the last several years the Astros have lost

Scott Elarton (17 game winner)
Shane Reynolds (19 game winner)
Mike Hampton (22 game winner)
Wade Miller (16 game winner)
Darryl Kile (19 game winner)
Jose Lima (21 game winner)
Randy Johnson

and still have competed....you think they can't weather the storm of losing Backe? Backe with a career record of 16-12 and era of 4.86? The guy was on a national stage and ala Beltran his stock is really high and everyone needs pitching especially cheap young pitching.

I think the Astros could do better than this deal for Backe, he needs to be traded now, his stock couldn't possibly be higher.

 

Don't forget 15 GAME WINNER Jeriome Robertson!

 

wow i can't believe anyone would even think about not doing this deal. aceshigh maybe you should stop looking at qualls and backe through rose-colored glasses.
i

 

Unfortunately, it is what it is... a tidbit.

Bean has also been quoted as saying he may just hold on to Zito, and get his number 1 compensatory draft pick after he leaves as a FA (although, I don't buy that cause its really not his style).

Like Backe, Zito's stock is as high as its been in the last 2 years. He finally got over some injury problems, and had a solid year last year after a so-so 2004.

There's also the fact that they already have Street entrenched as the closer, and wouldn't really have much need for an older/more expensive Lidge. Perhaps Lane/Burke would get it done... but remember, this avenue will only be explored IF they can't reach a deal with Clemens.

 

610 was talking about a Milton Bradley/Zito swap this morning.

 

I'd still like to see the Astros get in on the fire sale that the Marlins are having. While most of the players they've offered up until LoDuca (LoDuca or Ausmus..mmm) have been players playing positions that are "filled" for us;now they are starting to offer Pierre who would be a nice addition for us while probably costing us some prospects. Personally I'd have gone hard after LoDuca (keep Brad for Roger's day if he want's him that bad) and Pierre.

Abreu would be nice to have and we need more consitant batting. I don't want to see Clemens or anyone else get an L for giving up 1 run in 9 innings. But if we can replace weak players with players who are moderately stronger and keep the pitching staff, I think we have a better chance of building on what we have.

Sure we could get someone to replace Backe, who may or may not be as good. But Clemens may not come back and that would be 2 starters you'd have to find. And if Pettitte is like the Pettitte we know, he's going to be down a while and you'll need another decent starter or it won't matter if Abreu is in the lineup or not.

 

The Astros already have Juan Pierre. His name is Willy Taveras.....

 

According to the Toronto Star, the Cards are about to sign Burnett.

Time to go to work Timmy.