British authorities are convinced that they are going to have an outbreak. A quarantined parrot died of one of the most virulent strains. Four people are now dead in Indonesia. I don't know how many have died elsewhere. Anyone else concerned? I'm thinking of getting some Tamiflu scripts for the family.
Did it appear that I was 'freaking out'? I don't consider buying some Tamiflu a big deal ... it certainly won't punish me financially and I have 2 small children; the smallest of risks to them is unacceptable. And FWIW the Avian Flu <> SARS. Just like Bubonic Plague <> Swine Flu. The bugs all have their own risks and should be assessed so.
And FWIW, the risk in the US is presently condiered low, but here's the kicker (from the CDC): 'So far, spread of H5N1 virus from person to person has been rare and has not continued beyond one person. However, because all influenza viruses have the ability to change, scientists are concerned that the H5N1 virus one day could be able to infect humans and spread easily from one person to another. Because these viruses do not commonly infect humans, there is little or no immune protection against them in the human population. If the H5N1 virus were able to infect people and spread easily from person to person, an influenza pandemic (worldwide outbreak of disease) could begin. No one can predict when a pandemic might occur. However, experts from around the world are watching the H5N1 situation in Asia very closely and are preparing for the possibility that the virus may begin to spread more easily and widely from person to person. ' http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/facts.htm
We should be very concerned ~ we are very much overdue for another pandemic. __________ Spanish flu The Spanish Flu Pandemic, also known as the Great Influenza Pandemic, the 1918 Flu Epidemic and La Grippe, was an unusually severe and deadly strain of avian influenza, a viral infectious disease, that killed some 25 million to 50 million people worldwide in 1918 and 1919. It is thought to have been one of the most deadly pandemics so far in human history. It was caused by the H1N1 type of flu virus. The Allies of World War I frequently called it the "Spanish Flu." This was mainly because the pandemic received greater press attention in Spain than in the rest of the world, because Spain was not involved in the war and there was no wartime censorship. Spain did have one of the worst early outbreaks of the disease, with some 8 million people infected in May 1918. It was also known as "only the flu" or "the grippe" by public health officials seeking to prevent panic. It could be that the Spanish flu was the reason or one of the reasons to the end of World War I. More United States soldiers died from the Spanish flu during World War I than from the war itself. link
not to pick on you Cohen, but I hope they don't allow people to have Tamiflu "just in case", because one of the biggest concerns is that enough Tamiflu won't be available to give in outbreak communities
I don't believe stocks would be that sufficient should an outbreak occur. All Tamiflu is derived from a single type of plant found only in China, and then takes months of laborious processing to yield the end product. From my understanding, Roche Labs is already producing at capacity and exhausting the available supply of said plant. From a personal standpoint, should an outbreak occur you are wise to stock up on the drug right now just to be on the safe side. But from a public health standpoint, bronxfan is prob right that you may be costing some other dude his life by depleting the practically finite supply of the drug.
In these cases of plant processing, I'm surprised somebody hasn't taken the active ingredient, figured out which part of the plant's DNA is responsible, spliced it into a plasmid, and used host cells (E. coli or whatever in the lab) to produce lots of this (protein? hormone?). Maybe just because not that much is known about that particular plant? Anyway, the same stuff they do with insulin and other synthetically produced drugs.
Well Roche is meeting with 4 generic manufacturers this week to possibly increase production; they're under severe pressure to do so. As for 'social responsibility', that can got to h*ll when talking about my children's safety. Also, where to draw the line? The countries that order first get supplies first. Shall we all be 'socially responsible', while other countries get their orders in? Roche halted sales in Canada because one day last week they sold more than they did there in 2004. A WHO official in Hong Kong told people to stock up on it, and Canadian officials were preparing to make a determination on whether to do the same. http://www.canada.com/health/story.html?id=62fd80b5-0349-46c9-9400-a77e333f6a8d http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/breakingnews.php?id=57862 Also, I have not seen where production is limited by anything but Roche's limitations. Some countries may break the patent and allow generics to be manufactured. http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2005-10-25-bird-flu_x.htm?POE=NEWISVA http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2005-10-24-birdflu-fda_x.htm I have not seen where anyone mentions a limitaion based on limited plants, pippendagimp..link?
I think the article I had read was in National Geographic maybe... In any case, here's one from the UK Independent w/ similar info.. ["Only star anise grown in the four provinces of China is suitable for manufacture into Tamiflu and 90 per cent of the harvest is already used by Roche......Roche responded by saying: "Because of the shortage of the raw material it would be very difficult for another manufacturer to set up production.......The spokeswoman said: "It would take two to three years for another company to build the manufacturing capacity. The process is very complicated and the drug takes us 12 months to produce. Once you have built the facilities you have to get regulatory approval and the manufacturing licenses. And then there is the shortage of the raw material."] Isabel.....from the same article....explains the impracticality of artificially synthesizing the active ingredient I guess: ["Roche has developed a synthetic source of acidinic acid, made from the bacterium E Coli. Vast quantities of E Coli are mixed with glucose in vats the size of two buses. But star anise remains the chief source, the company said."] http://www.commondreams.org/cgi-bin/print.cgi?file=/headlines05/1015-02.htm
Speculating, but I've learned from reputable sources that vaccine making has traditionally had high overhead, high risks and has pretty low profit margins and is not a place where a lot of pharmas want to go.
i thought the governments of the big developed countries I pretty much bought up all the stock already, so those developing countries were it is more likely to occur are already screwed also i've already got my birds on a honey/garlic/horseradish/Vitamin C mixture in their water and when i feed the ducks in the park, i've been slipping them some cold and flu tablets in with the bread
I'm sure one day there will be a virus(or disease) that will kill a big part of the human population. however I do not think that this one is it. It is not yet possible for human-human infection. so we will be alright. The bird flu is a problem which is increased by biological farming.( not that i''m against biological farming)
I got over two months of sick time saved up that I have to use or I'll lose it! A case of the bird flu would be a nice change of pace...
Yeah, but birds used to be dinosaurs, which probably could have sex with you if they wanted. So I wouldn't turn your back on a bird for a second.
