[Fanball.com] Countdown to Launch

darkwarrior · Sep 8, 2005

http://www.fanball.com/ph/article.cfm/ID.4449

Countdown to Launch
T-Mac averaged about 26, 6, and 6 last season.
By Rick Kamla, Senior Editor

September 3, 2005 3:00 PM ET

2004-05 Recap: After riding the high-low combo of Steve Francis and Yao Ming for two years, the Rockets decided to change course during the offseason, trading Francis (and others) for Tracy McGrady (and others). The result was a six-game improvement over 03-04, as T-Mac and Yao led the Rockets to 51 wins and the fifth seed in the Western Conference playoffs. That win total was made all the more impressive by the fact that Houston lost 11 of its first 17 games, in part, because T-Mac averaged just 20.2 points in November. But Tracy got it together, averaging 27.7 ppg in December and 25.7 for the season, as he finished sixth in scoring and made his fifth All-Star appearance. Yao was consistent and durable throughout, posting 18.3 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 55 percent from the field in 80 games. The three-time All-Star improved in points, blocks and field goal percentage for the third straight season, discrediting the haters who love to rip him for being slow or soft or whatever. The Rockets ranked second in opposing field goal percentage (.423), third in points allowed (91), and fifth in scoring differential (+4.03). Houston had a lot going for it last season, but its Achilles heel was the lack of a third scorer. Juwan Howard came over from the Magic along with T-Mac, and he should have been the third scorer from the power forward position. However, Juwan averaged just 9.6 points in 61 games before blowing out his knee and missing the remainder of the season. Mike James was acquired from the Bucks during the season and he ranked third on the team with 12.4 ppg, but that wasn't enough to compensate for the starting backcourt of David Wesley and Bob Sura that averaged a combined 21.2 points and 41 percent shooting. Inconsistent scoring from the guard spots really hurt the Rockets in their first round playoff series against the Mavericks. The Rockets actually won the first two games in Dallas, but then dropped both of their home games before the series got back on serve, with the Mavs winning Game 5, Rockets winning Game 6, and Mavs winning Game 7 in Big D. McGrady was good for 31-7-7 and Yao had 21-8-3 in the series, but again, their sixth man and third scorer, James, averaged 11.6 points per game. I don't care how good your defense is, that won't get it done against the high-scoring Mavericks, who embarrassed the Rockets by 40 in Game 7. The series marked the second time in T-Mac's career that his team blew a two-game lead in a best-of-seven series. The first cave occurred in the 2002 playoffs when his Magic blew a 3-1 series lead to the Pistons, who won the series in seven. As such, T-Mac had more than a few restless nights during the offseason.

Offseason Overview: Ah, but T-Mac slept a little easier after the Rockets locked up Yao through the 2010-11 season. Not that there was any trepidation, but it's nice to know that T-Mac and Yao will form Houston's one-two punch through the end of the decade. Other than extending Yao's contract for the maximum allowed under the new CBA, the Rockets signed free agents Stromile Swift and Derek Anderson, re-signed veteran reserves Dikembe Mutombo and Jon Barry, and drafted Illinois guard Luther Head in the first round. Swift gives the Rockets much-needed athleticism in the frontcourt, while Deke and Barry are among the best reserves in the league. However, I don't understand how Anderson and Head fit with this already perimeter-rich team. With Howard recovering from knee surgery and Vin Baker listed as the only other big, the Rockets should have taken the Anderson money and spent it on a big man. But what do I know?

2005-06 Outlook: After winning 45 games in 03-04 and 51 games last year, the Rockets would love to make another six-game improvement this season. Unfortunately, six more wins would give them 57, but that wasn't even good enough to host a first-round playoff series a year ago, as fourth-seeded Dallas won 58 games. As such, it's on T-Mac and Yao to raise their respective games one level higher, it's on Swift to average 10-15 points from the four, and it's on the starting backcourt to hit the hoop every once in a while. I don't see the Rockets improving to the point where they win 60 this season, but this well-coached squad will win between 57-59 games, finish second to the Spurs in the Southwest Division, become the West's top non-division winner, and once again face the Mavericks in the 4-5 series. Only this time the Rockets will have home-court advantage, and because of that, they will avenge last year's Game 7 massacre. Their reward for outlasting the Mavericks? A second-round TKO at the rock-hard hands of the Spurs.

Rotation Analysis: T-Mac led the Rockets with a career-high 40.8 minutes a year ago, and he'll remain in the 40s as long as he can get out of bed in the morning. Yao's 30.6 minutes per game were fourth on the team, and they marked a reduction from 03-04 when he clocked a career-high 32.8 minutes. I know Yao has been rehabbing his ankle as well as working on his upper body and conditioning this summer, but I highly doubt he plays more than 33 minutes a game. That leaves roughly 15 minutes for Deke off the bench, and that's all he needs to get ready for the playoffs. The power forward position is in flux, as Howard needs to prove his knee is healthy and Swift needs to prove he can defend consistently enough to stay on the court for more than 20 minutes a game. If Swift can't take this job and run with it, you will once again see a fantasy wasteland at the four in Houston. Wesley got the second-most playing time at 34.1 minutes, and Sura was third at 31.5. If Wesley and Sura were here right now, I'd ask them if they enjoyed all that playing time, because they won't be playing as much with Anderson on board. The Rockets were already four-deep at the guard spots, but now they sport a five-guard rotation with Anderson, who will probably steal Wesley's starting job at some point.

Player(s) to watch: The Rockets signed Swift to a five-year contract worth about $30 million, so he's the player to watch. The former No. 2 overall pick by the Grizzlies has shown flashes of brilliance over his five-year career, but his career highs of 11.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks were set in 2001-02 when he clocked 26.5 minutes a night. Over the last three years, Swift hasn't played more than 21 minutes and he's been good for 10-5-1.5. Plus, he has averaged 14 DNPs over the past four seasons, including a career-high 22 a year ago. You can see why impatient hoop heads are quick to call him a bust. Assuming Swift isn't totally overwhelmed by JVG's complicated defensive schemes, he should get 30+ minutes and could blossom into a sleeper capable of 15-9-2 on a nightly basis. Say it ain't so, Stro.

Player(s) to fear: I fear every Rocket not named T-Mac or Yao.

The Stat: Yao's two DNPs last season were the first of his three-year career. Considering Yao has played year-round for the past several years, that's amazing durability for 7-6 giant.

(Not-so) Bold Prediction: After averaging at least 27 points in the months of December, January, and April last season, T-Mac keeps his scoring average above 27 for the entire 05-06 campaign and challenges for the scoring title.
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Its like a 4 day old article so I have no idea if it's been posted or not. Lock if needed.

RocketFire · Sep 8, 2005

nice article. I agree with him about Yaos minutes. He will only be able to log in 33 mins. The real question is can David Wesley and Bob sura can hold our starting backcourt together.

pettinati · Sep 8, 2005

He called us a perimeter rich team while questioning the move for anderson, and drafting head, but in the paragraph before he talked about a combined 21.whatever from Wesley and Sura.

That doesnt make sense.

redgoose · Sep 8, 2005

Juwan blew out his knee? I thought it was a heart infection.

And then why does he fear every player not named T-mac or Yao? Shouldn't it be the other way around?

tycoonchip · Sep 8, 2005

Nice article. I do however think we're going to be a little better than he thinks. Sura and wesley were both injured last season and in playoffs. Injured to the point they couldn't play... no not really but they were injured enough that it hindered some of their capabilities. If we can remain healthy wow there is no tko from the Spurs. I don't think the rockets are done trading though. there will be more to come... IN CD WE TRUST!

RioGrando · Sep 8, 2005

Why didn't Kamla post his own article?

krosfyah · Sep 8, 2005

redgoose said:

Juwan blew out his knee? I thought it was a heart infection.
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Yes, he blew out his knee. The heart infection came later.

MrRolo · Sep 8, 2005

redgoose said:

Juwan blew out his knee? I thought it was a heart infection.

And then why does he fear every player not named T-mac or Yao? Shouldn't it be the other way around?
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Players to watch = the players with the potential to have a great season
Players to fear = the players with the potential to have a horrible season

I was confused when I read that too but I figured it out!

thiagu88 · Sep 8, 2005

MrRolo said:

Players to watch = the players with the potential to have a great season
Players to fear = the players with the potential to have a horrible season

I was confused when I read that too but I figured it out!
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im still confused, please explain

RocketsFAN3035 · Sep 8, 2005

MrRolo said:

Players to watch = the players with the potential to have a great season
Players to fear = the players with the potential to have a horrible season

I was confused when I read that too but I figured it out!
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Thanks for explaining that. I was confused too, until you made sense of it.

For those still not getting it, the author is saying that Yao and T-Mac will get their points, rebs, assts,....etc. BUT he is suggesting that no one else on the our roster is going to kill you.

But here's what I don't understand about that. Say you double both Yao and T-Mac.......someone's got to be getting open lay ups then right? Right? OR am I crazy?

SirCharlesFan · Sep 8, 2005

Isn't Kamla a fantasy hoops guy? I think that would explain why he would fear anyone on the Rockets not named T-Mac or Yao.

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