Will five man units with Howard and Deke statistically outperform 5 man units with Yao and Swift in point differential on a per minute basis? Last Season, 5 man units with Mutumbo generally outplayed equivalent units with Yao statistically. For instance, Deke, Howard, McGrady, Wesley, and Sura scored 26 more points than their opponents last year in 128 minutes while Yao, Howard, McGrady, Wesley, and Sura outscored opponents by 34 points in 423 minutes (stats obtained by 82games.com). I think Mutumbo/Howard units will statistically outplay Yao/Swift units this season. I don't think it is because they will perfom better, but because they will be padding their stats against worse opponents. TNT kept saying last year how the Rockets performed better without Yao based on stats, but they mentioned that Yao usually played against the opponents starters.
It's not just about scoring more points. Deke provides defense and he shuts down the paint. So when Deke is on the floor, opposing teams have more difficulty scoring. Deke played a lot agaisnt starters last year. That's why you saw Deke replace Yao so many times even when Yao didn't need a break. Deke's energy, competitiveness and determination give us a different dimension on the floor. So in terms of point differential, I am not surprised he's so efficient and productive.
two comments. ON TIRED CENTERS. I think a major advantage is Deke can just go all out his 15 or so minutes. This is also why I don't think he is a major free agent target by other teams, if he had to give 20-24MPG he would be a lot less effective. I remember after game 6--when he was a major force in turning around that gam--he just couldn't hardly move and seemed totally wasted in game 7, even with one day off. Playing for the Rockets is just really ideal for him. With Yao, and even Swift who can play some C given favorable match-ups, Deke should be able to be conserved more for us than any other team. Similarly, I think Yao gets a lot more bad fouls and TOs towards the end of his stretches. I really think JVG has a bad habit of waiting a little too long to give him some breaks. I'd be curious to see how Yao does in his first set of 3-4 minutes, 2nd set of 3-4 minutes and last set of 3-4 minutes during the start of games and start of 2nd halves. THE PF PAIRINGS. Swift is much more of a defensive presence and much more athletic. When Yao and JH were paired, they just are both a little less athletic than most pairs of opponents they face--and together this is further compounded. I suspect pairing Swift with Yao and JH with Deke will change things. Also, as discussed before, there may be times Swift plays C and neither Yao or Deke are on the floor, we could even put Tmac or Baxter at the 4 with 3 guards. I am not saying it is a mainstay, but remember how effective JVG Knick EC champs was were when Camby (more like Swift) was the C (instead of Ewing) behind an athletic group of forwars and guards. With Swift and Tmac being multi-position players there are lots of different line-up combinations to find different ways to score and defend we couldn't try much last year.
nice post Desert Scar. Have you heard the saying "Lies, Damn Lies, & Statistics" ? Motumbo has starter level skills; he just can't use them for prolonged periods of time. It's much easier for him to dominate playing against other "2nd team" centres while not being double teamed (no "who wants to sex Motumbo" jokes please). Yao is almost always double teamed, plays higher minutes (as you'd expect with the age) & plays against better players... all the while being hacked to death & not getting any calls! I really want Motumbo back. It allows us to be one fo the 2 teams (the other is Miami with Shaq & 'Zo) that can field starter talent at centre for a full 48 minutes.
