models have been trending further north all day.. we all need to keep a close eye on this storm. it is already a cat 4 with 135mph winds. i cant even imagine the damage that would cause to the texas coast. it all depends on the strength of the ridge of high pressure and the trough currently near dallas. im thinking the point will be between brownsville and corpus. sunday should be teh day where we should know for sure where this is going. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_model.html
This is a pretty interesting situation. The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said it best in that the forecast models at this point have heavily underestimated the high pressure system to the north over the past couple of days. When they first started the storm track, they were angling this storm towards Florida!!! Given the fact that Emily has barely gained any latitude, all of the forecasters are skeptical of the models and it is understandable at this point. There is good reason for anyone south of Corpus to seriously be watching this storm. That has been true for the past two days. If you are in Houston, you should be paying attention as well. Anything can happen with hurricanes. But, the models have consistently underestimated this high pressure ridge and there are indications they could be pushing the storm further north than it will go. We'll just have to watch and see. What is stupid is places like Channel 2's webiste listing "Emily???" for Wednesday and Thursday of their 7-day forecast. When it comes to hurricanes, I freakin' hate the media. By the way, it's been pouring the past two days and I've got piles of lumber laying around my driveway and my house looks like a de-militarized zone because they are supposed to put on a new roof, replace rotted siding and re-paint. Wouldn't it be my freakin' luck if we get a major hurricane in here with all that crap laying around my yard. All I need are more projectiles. Even better would be if they get the new roof on and the shingles get blown off in the storm. Outstanding.
With the panic Houston has gone through over the past days of rain storms I shudder to think how this city will shut down if we get any part of Emily.
Amazing, isn't it? I mean, I had people calling me yesterday afternoon because I said I was going to drive from my house in the Heights over to Westheimer/Voss to get some food at around 4:30pm. They were telling me that the news was doing all this full coverage and there was flooding everywhere. WTF? It was a completely easy drive. I had no problems with flooding and the rain wasn't even coming down that hard. I got there and back with to-go food in under an hour, just slightly longer than it might normally take and only because I waited to call in my order over my worries about the weather.
Well, gonna go and do a little hurricane shopping today. I'm not worried about the boards since I precut all the 1/2 inch plywood to size when we built our home. I can have all the windows secured in an hour. I just have to make space for the dalmations, and secure all the outside items.
very well put Jeff, i can understand the media reaction a little they want people to take this storm seriously and be prepared just in case. i do think NBC has reacted a little too much however. As of now Brownsville is looking like a bulls eye to the models but Emily will have to gain a little more Latitude to make it imo but really what do i know lol. pretty much wait and see and dont let your guard down should be the attitude here. here are the latest models and forcaset track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/144557.shtml?5day http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_model.html
The good news is that most of the intensification models show pretty significant upper level wind shear in Emily's path meaning, while she probably won't weaken over the Carribbean, it is unlikely that she will strengthen and any interaction with land - particularly the mountainous Yucatan Peninsula - would result in a weaker hurricane once she reaches the Gulf and there appear to be no signs of strengthening at that point. If all that holds true, Emily could be a minimal hurricane by the time she reaches the southern Texas coast - still a hurricane and nothing to ignore, but not a major hurricane. That's good news.
Well...I'm about as ready as I'm gonna get. My Grandma won't have to worry about this hurricane. She passed away this afternoon.
Basically, anyone south of Corpus should stay aware. I still think somewhere just south of Brownsville is most likely, probably as a minimal to medium cat 2.
I hope this storm influences the weather and we get a significant amount of rain. I would wrather not have the winds, but the rain will be great.
For the Houston area, I hope not. We've had enough rain and I've got construction guys trying to get my roof and paint finished!!!
My brother got screwed by Emily. He and his girlfriend were supposed to be vacationing near Cancun, but the hotel called them and canceled the trip because of the storm.
So a friend of mine has access to "El Norte", newspaper of Monterrey. They are running a story on EMILY, and are showing tourists on the beach before and right after the storm. She called me and showed me this photo, which shows TWO (count 'em, 2) males holding hands. If the culture now accepts this, it was different than when I was in Mexico, and I think that in Cancun it is WAY WAY different than up north where I was raised. I just think it is also funny that the story is about a Hurricane, tourists, but 2 guys come out holding hands. It is also funny that one of the guys is sporting the MEXICO soccer national team's jersey . Anyway, it was fun to see this picture taken... of two dudes... not that there's anything wrong with that... (lighten up, I am not degrading anyone )...
