Love it. I can't wait. Totally agree about Finley. Last yar, I said if the Rocks made the playoffs, I'd be thrilled regardless of what happened. And I was. This year, if we advance to the second round, I'll be thrilled no matter what. Go Rocks.
I think another key maybe how much the refs favor Dirk. In the last game in Dallas, he bulled his way into the lane drawing fouls. With Yao being foul prone, this might be a real problem. If they the refs don't favor him the series could go either way.
Nope, we play the winner of the San Antonio/Denver series. The bracket is set so that the 1 and 2 seeds only face in the Conference finals.
Ironically, based on our home/road records, Dallas' home field advantage will actually be ours ... and therefore, I agree, that we'll win in 7 ...
Jeff, good job. I am very concerned about Daniels. Their bench may prove to be better in the end. I tend to believe our defense, Ming and TMac have to be the difference.
Yao will have to show consistent aggresiveness. We've seen flashes of it over the last month so I'm encouraged he still have some left in the tank. Look at last night how well everybody played when Yao was dominating early!!! I'm not worried about McGrady. He'll show up. But McGrady's effectiveness will be based on Yao's effectiveness. If Yao goes MIA for long stretches, then McGrady will have too much on his back (and knees). Maybe TMac can do it, maybe not. But if Yao shows up, there's no stopping TMac! Our role players all will key off of Yao and Tracy. If Yao plays well, TMac will play well. If they both play well, our role players will play well. But if Yao doesn't play well, $hit roles downhill. Maybe somebody can break the chain like Deke but it's much harder.
McGrady will go nuts. I can't wait to see this. The series depends on whether or not Yao Ming shows up. Our biggest asset is our coach. We were a few turnovers away from being up 3-1 on L.A. last year and we had absolutely NO business being on the same court as that team. And it's not even like Yao showed up. While Francis was great, our defense in that series, esp. on Kobe, was a thing of beauty. Gumby will have these guys ready to go.
The only section I may object to is the "Bench"... If anything, it may be more like "Even." Dallas has to be considered one of the deepest teams in the league by far. Thus, along with Dirk's great year as always, it is one of the main reasons for thier 55+ win season, even without Nash! I understand all the intangibles we bring to the table, such as depth ourselves (sans the PF position), the chemistry, and the "do-more-with-less" attitude, etc. But having Stackhouse, Van Horn, Daniels, Armstrong, and the rookie Harris coming off the bench for you is quite impressive... Could ALL possibly be starters on other NBA teams IMO... With that being said, Houston in 6
I agree with this. Nowitzki won't be stopped, and McGrady will get his. These are givens. The 3rd best player on the court, easily, will be Yao Ming. Last year, Yao had to contend with guarding a big man like Shaq, and his offense came second. This year he's absolutely got to dominate the Mavs at the weakest spot in their lineup. At least 20 and 10 averages. If we can dominate both the SF and the C matchups, I think the series is ours. He averaged 15 and 9 against the Mavs this year, but I think he can do much better. On the other end, I think Wesley has to (and will) hang with Finley on D and hold him to a subpar series.
I read on that dallas-mavs board that Daniels hasn't even been cracking the rotation lately, as Avery has been favoring Devin Harris over him. Avery has also been stating that Dirk will not be playing the center position at all. Now in the big picture, this sort of hints at Avery's possible coaching weaknesses. I happen to think that Daniels in the lineup and Dirk at the 5 spot both pose matchup problems for us. But if Avery is too stubborn or inflexible to see this and make adjustments during the series, then this could work in our favor. Just listening to Avery on the bench during the Mavs games I've watched, he has this very hard and fast authoritative coaching approach - almost like he is trying to establish himself and his players' belief in his system. I could see him being scared to change things up even when things start going awry for his team. I could see him keep on reiterating the same old gameplan and staying the coarse out of fear that his players may lose faith in his system. One other thing I noticed about their team is something I suspect JVG may be banking on. On the surface, the Mavs have a very versatile team that can play uptempo or half-court.....they can go small or go bigger inside and post up Dampier.......they can play man-to-man or rely on zone. JVG, however, is a HUGE believer in cementing your team's identity and knowing who you are and what each player's role is. Dallas currently has no identity. They are a team that used to get up and down and play no D. But now suddenly in the past 4-6 weeks they have become a passing lane gambling team on defense much like the George Karl Sonics and have added about 4 new main rotation players from trades and the injured reserve. When Game 1 starts at Dallas, everyone including the Rockets players knows exactly what they are going to do on both the offensive and defensive ends. I am not sure even Avery knows yet what his team will be running on either.
Very interesting Pip. I had not realized that Daniels was out of the rotation. I am surprised, quite frankly. What clues can we take from the regular season games between the two teams? Will our defense be a top 3 factor?
Defense is always a factor...especially in the playoffs. As the old rule goes, a good defense beats a good offense. Just look at the last superbowl. I'm feeling pretty optimistic about our chances.
Jeff, fair assessment. Yao has to step up big, because that will make us 2 mismatches vs Dallas's 1. I have faith in our D esp come playoff time. We play system, and we are very deciplined. Let's see between us and Dallas who blinks first. Coaching is very important to this series.
