IMO fans over think the impact of schedule. Having a couple extra playoff teams relative to your competing teams doesn't mean near as much as how healthy you are and how you are playing. If the Rockets keep decent health and keep playing as a team, there should be no way they end up in the 7th seed or lower. I just want us to finish 6th or 5h. Neither the Mavs nor the Sonics would be significantly, if any, favored over the Rockets even starting that series at home--again assuming the Rockets are healthy and have not imploded chemistry wise. So the Rockets just need to keep their own game going and get healthy, it is highly unlikely Sac and Memphis both can keep pace even with an extra couple easy games if that is the story.
It's going to be a tough test just to get to the playoffs. One thing is for sure, the teams making the playoffs will definatly deserve to be there. Denver is playing it's best ball. Memphis is scary because they play such a good team game. And Garnett and Bryant are MVP's in their own rights. The thing that counts against Garnett and Bryant is that not even Jordan could carry the Bulls by himself; just ask Carter who left Toronto with his tail between his legs. The Rockets have a tough schedule, but they have two all stars (one of which would be a certain MVP candidate if the Rockets had a better record) and a bunch of guys who play the game right. It's for sure, the Rockets will have to earn the playoffs. But let's just say, don't bet against the Rockets.
Here’s the math. If the Rox win ALL 22 of the remaining games (not very likely), they end up with .695. That’s Seattle’s record now. If the Sonics finish 13-12 (not very likely), they end up with .658. To tie that, the Rox would have to go 19-3 (not very likely). To beat Dallas’ current win % (.661), we’d have to go 20-2. If they finish 13-12, they end up with .634. To tie that, the Rox would have to go 17-5. Even to beat Sacto’s current win % (.613), we have to go 16-6. If they finish 10-10 (unlikely), we have to finish 13-9 (.591).
I was under the impression that the 3 division winners would get a 1st round home game. Otherwise what's the incentive to win the division?
Read the above, and go the link on ESPN...home court is determined by regular season record, not seeding order, so the advantage of winning the division is not as big as you think it is. But at least #3 gets to play against a #6 seed, instead of possibly having to go play a higher seeded team.
In addition, in the East it was close to being the only way any of the Atlantic division teams will make the playoffs at all. The real goofy (and unfair) thing is not what it does to the #3 seed, but the #6 seed. Right now the #6 seed is better position than the #5 seed b/c you have a chance at homecourt as the #6 and more than likely you get to play a weaker opponent than the #5 seed does. This is the only thing they have to fix with the current system (e.g., give the automatic bid to the division winners plus the next best team, but then reseed 1-4). It is an easy fix really, can't see how they didn't see problems with the current format ahead of time. As of now, yes Washington, Cleveland and Chicago will tank games if it delivers the 6th seed instead of the 5th (I guess if in doubt the team with the last game has an advantage). And noone could blame them for doing so given the current system (get home court in round 1 versus not).
That's why I hate looking at winning percentages. I look at the loss column. We are only one loss behind Sacto. This is not an insurmountable lead in any way. We only have to lose one less game than them the rest of the way. And right now I am fairly convinced that we could catch Sacto. Sacto's Records: February 6-8, March 2-3 so far. They are not playing winning basketball. Since Webber left, they have only played .500 ball. People might have said that the team won without Weber last year, but that was last year's team who had Divac as a very important part. I wouldn't be surprised if they suddenly started dropping games faster than any of us would expect. Dallas, on the other hand, we are not catching. Winning four more games than them in the last 20 games seems a little ambitious and would take some major injuries/meltdown on their part. Don't know why I really care about this as I don't want to catch up with any of these teams. I would prefer the 6th seed as of now. Seattle seems like a nice opponent for the first round that I think we match up well against.
