The chase for Stromile Swift

I did a little bit of research(as far as seeing whether trading Taylor for an expiring contract helps the Rockets free up FA money: it doesn't) and it seems the Rockets have 3 options for upgrading the PF spot in the near future.

1) The draft(this is risky,considering they will pick to the early/mid 20's, but if a guy like simien/turiaf/williams slipped, they could fill it that way)

2) The MLE/FA(this would require most of the top choices taking less money to come play for a contender and realistically I could only see SAR/Marshall doing that of the group listed a few pages back, besides more risky options like Dalembert and perhaps if the wizards would let Brown go as a restricted FA).

3) Trade, which presents a couple different options. One is the Rockets trade for Marshall now, before he gets to FA this offseason, using the TE/future picks as assets. Another is the Rockets try to trade for one of the other trade exceptions around the league(the one GS has comes to mind) so that they would have 10 million dollars in TE value come FA time to lure a swift or a chandler via sign and trade.


All that being said, if I was CD, I would focus on Marshall or the GS TE route using future picks if that was viable. If they could pull off either of these deals, they would be in great shape. As far as which are the most likely scenarios, I'd say marshall/SAR and the draft, unless the market for swift and chandler just stagnates(unlikely). Of course, I like the idea of pursuing the TE the Warriors have the most as that would give the Rockets 10 million dollars to use in a S&T for swift or chandler.

 

How do you suggest "acquiring" the Warriors' TE? It's not just a moveable asset, it's created through trade. I don't think the Warriors have any reason to take on salary just for the sake of salary, and guys like Wesley or Mutumbo, the closest salaries to their TE, are too old for what they're trying to do (granted, no one on earth knows exactly what the Warriors are trying to do, locking Foyle and Fisher into obscene deals).

None of that really matters, though. Trade exceptions created in separate deals can't be aggregated. Having 2 $5 mill exceptions allows you to acquire 2 $5 mill players, not 1 $6, $7, $8, $9, or $10 mill player.

 

Then throw out that possibility, you cleared that up(as that kind of deal would be pointless). My mistake, I was just thinking about that and threw the idea out there without any real knowledge or whether it was possible or not. It looks like the only real options are the draft, donyell marshall, and maybe SAR/Kwame Brown, unless swift or chandler would rather play here for less than get the big payday either via FA or S&T.

 

I would say the three teams they would avoid having Swift go to like the plague are the Rockets, Mavs, and Spurs--probably in that order. If they got deals ANYWHERE near (take 5 draft slots lower, less an extra 2nd rounder) the same level from any other of the 26 league teams they do it.

I never said a non-lotto 1st rounder and a expiring contract would land Swift. Now if we had a pick around #10 or lower AND were not one of their chief rivals, we could take the expiring contract--I am sure we could be in the running to land Swift. I think most teams would give up a 1 year 6 mil contract for a mid-Lotto. Given Swift already has some production (comparable to Curry, Brown, Chandler), health, and still has a lot of room for growth, it is going to take that kind of pick to get him at a good contract price (Swift starting at like 6.5 mil is a good value, calculating, deal balacing age/health/productivity/potential for whoever lands him).

I think the key is not that he is unrestricted, it is that Memphis has his Bird Rights. As you outline, there is not a lot of open competition for Swift because few teams have more than an MLE to offer. That puts most control in Memphis. How many young players on the first open market contract have turned down multiple millions per year--I don't think many and I don't think Swift will. Swift may not like a 6.5-7 mil starting deal (with 12% increases) from Memphis or a Memphis trading partner, but he will darn near take that over 5-5.5 starting deal from us (with 10% increases).

Since we are talking open market of trading partners now, teams are going to offer a lot more than a mid 20s pick and an expiring contract to get Swift starting a reasonable salary like 6.5 mil. Further, even if we did have that mid or late lotto pick and expiring contract, Memphis would take any other offer in the same ballpark from any other team except possibly Dallas or SA. West IS going to have options, for the precise reasons you indicate: 1) probably the only way Swift will get close to what he think he is do is working with him; 2) there are fewer under the cap teams that would have interest in bidding for him, leading to bids from over the cap teams like the Rockets or any other team looking for a young PF with some skill and even more potential (plenty of them).

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Not a pipe dream some team gets him starting at say 6.5 mil, but close to a pipe dream Memphis would allow that team be the Rockets OR that Swift could convince (extrodinarily doubtfull) the Griz he would take millions less per year to sign for the MLE and leave them high and dry.

 

...Why? They don't want Stromile going closer to home? I'd bet West has a much bigger anti-Lakers sentiment. Divisions are pretty meaningless other than for the top 3 seeds. We play Memphis just as much as we play Phoenix.

The draft is before free agency. What sane lotto team would give up their pick for Stromile Swift in a sign and trade in order to give him a couple extra mill per year?

And when has a sign and trade ever led to true 1:1 terms (open market)? I find it reasonable that Swift is more than prepared to move on from Memphis if they're going to make things difficult- look at Derek Anderson a few years ago, on a team in which he was the #2 scorer and made the WC Finals. He was prepared to take less when he got tired of being jerked around by San Antonio. San Antonio eventually worked a sign and trade that landed them a creaky kneed Steve Smith in return. Stromile Swift is not a max player or near max player in any market, we're talking about a 2 mill base salary difference tops. I just don't see teams falling over themselves to give Swift an extra 2 mill, nor do I see Memphis being willing or able to offer much over the MLE, nor do I see Swift staying in Memphis if money is equal in better situations (which Houston would certainly be considered).

 

You said yourself, within your division you are competing for a top 3 seed. You are not coming to want a competitor for that seed who already have two of the best young players in the league in their positions another decent young player to plug another hole. Might as well forget overtaking them for the next 7 years if you do. Given few teams would benifit as much from Swift as we would, what we already have (Tmac/Yao), and the fact we are competing for the division seed--yes I would say we would have to be about last on their list.

Etan Thomas (far less potential growth than Swift) got a full MLE. Boozer and Kmart got double or more. Swift will definetly be able to command more than the MLE, probably about split the difference between Thomas and Boozer's contract if I am guessing. Even if he wants no part of Memphis in the future, it would be stupid for him, his agent, and Memphis not to work out something. It is very rare a young player with his first open bid contract will take millions less per year. Worst case scenario, Memphis says who wants Swift for a 5 year deal starting at 6.5 mil? All Swift can do is turn down those millions per year (doubtfull) or convince another team under the cap to outbid (also doubtfull). A outside team that Memphis does not want to deal with has little chance.

And yes, say I am the Lakers, NJ, or Milwalkee with a late lotto pick (10-14). Heck yeah I trade that pick and an expiring contract(s) for Swift. And if I am Memphis, yes I try to send him to the East 1st, but I even do the Laker trade before letting him go to us without compensation (for the reasons discussed before).

 

IF we trade Mo Taylor for Derek Anderson or otherwise get rid of Mo Taylor, would it be a complete pipedream to say we should try to get BOTH Donyell (with the MLE) and Swift (with the trade exception)?

Donyell is a versatile guy and could play the 3 and 4. Swift can play the 4 and 5. Dikembe is already quite old, so Swift could take some of his backup minutes at C.

 

Realistically, Memphis isn't beating Houston, Dallas, or San Antonio in the forseeable future with or without Stromile Swift being on any of the teams.

Restricted free agent.

Restricted free agent.

Restricted free agent.

Boozer was a RFA who wasn't matched because Cleveland couldn't. Etan Thomas signed for full MLE as an attempt to convince Washington not to match- it failed. Kenyon Martin was able to negotiate a contract that high to make it difficult for NJ to swallow such a contract. Their teams controlled the market- except Cleveland, because they could not match all offers. Notice he was the only one who was not either traded or kept.

Free agency is after the draft. Care to name any players traded via sign and trade in the year they were drafted? They don't exist. Therefore all picks involved are future picks, and if it's coming from a perennial lotto team, you can be damn sure there's protection involved.

 

I certainly think they will try.

Restricted FA makes it harder to get the big contract because teams don't want to waste their time on someone who can be matched (e.g., Arroyo). The Bucks tried as best they could to make it expensive for Washinton for Thomas, and that didn't even work, and Swift is a much hotter commodity than Thomas. Assuming a team is willing to pay Swift over the MLE, I think there are many (though perhaps all over the cap)--they must work through Memphis. That is pretty much the bottom line IMO.

This is interesting. But I still bet Swift gets a contract a mimum 1 or 2 mil per year over the MLE and if he is traded Memphis gets a better commodity than 20 something pick. Heck, if you are the Rockets you offer 2 #1s and the expriring contract. But I just don't see Memphis allowing that.

 

PG- Sura, Wesley, Barrett, Strickland, Gaines
SG- Wesley, TMAC, Barry, Sura
SF- TMAC, Swift , Padgett, Weatherspoon
PF- Howard, Swift , MoT
C- Yowza, Deke, Swift

cant be bad

 

Ok, I have thoroughly enjoyed reading this discussion/debate. Alot of insightful imformation has come forth. But am I the only one that thinks some people here (and I won't name names) place entirely too much value on Stromile Swift? He's been a solid back up in the league, sure, but come on! He's an undersized power forward! What does he weigh? 225? I'm not arguing that he wouldn't suit our purposes well. To the contrary, I think he'd be a fantastic addition to the Rockets. That doesn't mean he's the hot commodity people are making him out to be here though. I Have to think Curry, Chandler, Abdur-Rahim, Dalembert and even Kwame Brown are going to be hotter commodities. All of them are bigger than Swift and all but Abdur-Rahim are also known to possess the p word in abundance. Abdur-Rahim is a proven commodity and even if he has been tagged a loser, I'm sure there are teams out there ready to take a chance on a guy who can do the things he's consistently done through out his career.

If obtaining Stromile Swift presents even half the problems some of the people here project it will, just sign one of those other guys! I have a hard time believing we can't make at least one of those work. I know some of them are restricted but the restricted free agents also all happen to be in the East. I think that would make things at least somewhat easier than if they were restricted in the West. Any one of those guys would improve our team.

 

All those guys that you mentioned are restricted free agents (except Rahim who's basically a slightly improved Howard). And it makes a BIG DIFFERENCE regardless that they are in the East. Boozer and K-Mart were in the east last year, and yet they were signed away by western teams with a bunch of cap room. The reason that everyone is so intrigued by Swift is the fact that he is UNrestricted and he seems less likely to get a huge offer as those "hotter commodities".

We can't sign those other "hotter commodities", because all we have to offer is the MLE. And Swift just so perfectly covers our needs. He is the same age as T-Mac so he can grow with our two stars. He will block shots, grab a decent number of board, help Yao lock down the lane, and he has a decent midrange jumper. He's also athletic enough to flush down the interior passes that Yao will send him (I've noticed on more than a couple of occasions where Padge or Howard would just get fouled on layups, when they could have had "and 1" dunk if they could get up a little better).

 

JMW--the problem will be none of those guys you list will be had for what we can offer, which is an MLE.

The going rate for an averagish starting 4 on the open market with some potential is WELL over the MLE. Just look at Etan Thomas. Got a full MLE, got it matched by the team that didn't really want him that bad because they still thought he was an asset at that contract price/contract value. That was for a back-up 4 with a lot less P than Swift, in an older and at best equal current production (than Swift last year), form. Like I said I think Swift wil get about in between Boozer/MLE (E. Thomas). Kenny Thomas's contract is another good comparison, and KT didn't have Swift's upside either.

Lots of teams would like to have any of the guys you mentioned, including Swift, starting at over the MLE (say 6-7-8 mil per year).

You get a guy who is healthy, who you know already doesn't completely suck right now, and with good P--you go for him. The fact Swift adds a lot of what Houston needs--quickness and athleticsm in a big man to balance out the effective but kind of plodding Yao, JH, Deke, Spoon, makes a great fit (and the last 3 are aging).

Now perhaps SAR could be attainable because of his rap, but the other guys will be expensive even if they might be more attainable b/c Memphis isn't the key player.

Heck yea we can offer Swift the MAX MLE the very 1st day we are allowed, I just don't think him and his agent will give up a lot money they otherwise will get by working through Memphis even if Memphis says pick any team you want OUTSIDE of Texas and we will make it happen . I could be wrong as NIKE and others think, I just think it is a pipe dream the MLE will land him OR that Memphis would allow him to land here.

 

I agree. The only one that would be possible would be Brown, but he puts you in a catch 22 type situation. He hasn't earned the MLE but if you offer less(to take the chance on him blossoming for your team) Washington probably matches, thus creating the problem.

 

Brown definately hasn't shown me anything. I think the kid is busto all the way. With regard to Swift, I loved the kid in college. I thought he was going to be the steal of the draft and develop into what Amare has developed into. 5 years later, he's better, but not as good as I'd hoped he'd be. I see him as a Joe Smith or Tim Thomas. Someone with all the potential in the world, but who will never achieve greatness. Now the only difference between those guys and Swift is that they all had plenty more playing time to show what they could do. Swift only got his break because Gasol got injured, and Stromile made the most of his time as the starting PF.

I see flashes of brilliance, but not enough to overpay for. I think if we could land him for a reasonable price, he might be worth the risk (example: Donyell was an underachiever who has gotten better late in his career). Swift is about to hit his best years so he's worth the gamble. However, don't sell the farm for this guy.
We did for Taylor, and look how that turned out. (there's lots of paralells because Taylor was about Stromile's age, lots of potential and athleticism, showed progress every year; we thought he was our 4 of the future)

I learned that you only pay top dollar for top (proven) players. If Swift makes close to what Abdul Rahim makes next year, that will be a perfect example of what I'm talking about. He's not Abdul Rahim.

 

You're stating what Memphis and other teams would like to do, but you are ignoring some of the realities that prevent them from doing those things. There are only a handful of teams under the cap. Almost none of those teams are in the market for PF. So who's going to pay these huge salaries for these guys? In order for Chandler, SAR, Kwame and Swift to get big salaries, there has to be somebody to pay them.

The primary question is whether Memphis can afford to give Swift a large contract due to their payroll already being so high. We're not taking about Swift getting max money here. If Memphis thought that they could afford Swift for a starting salary somewhere in the $6M range and they thought that he was worth it, they would have made him that offer last season. Any time you let a guy become unrestricted, you take a huge risk (ask the Cavaliers about Boozer). I don't believe that they would have accepted that risk just to save a little over $1M /yr.

If Memphis parts ways with Swift then Memphis is a) trying to lower their payroll so they can't afford Swift or b) they got an offer which they deemed a better value to them in exchange for Swift.

Ok, let's consider those possibilities. If they're trying to get their payroll reduced, then taking back a player for Swift isn't attractive to them. If somebody had cap space or a TE and some draft picks, then Memphis might do that deal. Now,the other possibility is that Memphis really can afford to pay Swift, but they just got an offer too good to turn down. Let's think about what Memphis needs...they need big bodies, rebounders, shot blockers,inside scorers and they need to be athletic to best fit their uptempo style. So, who are they going to get that fits that role better than Swift? If a team has a guy like that, then why trade him for Swift?

Same goes for SAR. Do you think that any of the handful of teams with cap space are going to use their money on SAR? Is Seattle going to let Ray Allen walk so that they can sign SAR? Does Denver or the Clippers have any interest in SAR? I don't see anybody just outright signing SAR. What about a trade? Portland has been trying to move SAR all season and they can't get a decent offer. Do you think that the offers will get better this offseason? At least now, even if you don't particularly like SAR, he's an expiring contract and would allow you to dump salary.

Last offseason, there were alot of teams with alot of cap space. A couple of the teams overpaid just to guarentee that they got the FA that they were chasing. That's exactly what the Tigers just did last month in baseball with Ordonez. There's going to be many fewer suitors that will be offering huge deals this offseason.

Saying that many teams would like to have those guys and would be willing to pay them $6M or more is absolutely true. Houston is one of the teams that would love to have Swift and would be able to pay him more than the MCE, but the fact of the matter is that they can't. Wanting to do something and being able to do it are two different things. I don't argue that lots of teams would like to have Swift and be willing to pay him, there just aren't that many teams than can actually do it under the CBA. Further, if Memphis really is trying to cut costs, then that removes most of the teams from any chance of acquiring Swift in a S&T. It would be down to the few teams that have large exceptions(assuming that the teams under the cap don't really need Swift).

 

But there own teams can provide more than the MLE. That is the key with Swift too even though he is unrestricted, Memphis owns his Bird Rights. Now if they are going LAClip mode, yes they may just say bye, bye, (no attempt at getting compensation) but I doubt it. Memphis hasn't spent all they can in two offseason and likely made the playoffs for two seasons strait only to do a complete absolute face with a player more valuable than the ones they picked up.

Instead there will be lots of suitors like the Rockets who are over the cap but who would be willing to offer an expiring contract and good (picks) compensation or another good young player for Swift. The Lakers, Bucks and Nets for instance could all offer better pick prospects than we could (along with an expiring contract) or a young player--and a at least Memphis keeps him out of a powerhouse in their own division and gets some compensation.

Also, Swift isn't exactly what Memphis needs. They have a young stud 4 in Gasol. A true center or another prime offensive threat (perhaps a 2/3) with major scoring punch (they have decent swingmen but they are not dynamic) would help them at lot more.

I am not saying we don't try. I give it less than a 1/10 shot that the MLE is enough to land Swift, or that no other decent enough offer is out there Memphis works with us (for say like Spoon and 2 #1s).