I agree if Stromile Swift will sign for the MLE than the Rockets have a legitimate shot at signing him. But it's a major pipedream!!!! It will never happen!!! He will never accept the MLE unless it is all he can get and it won't be. If Brian Cardinal can get the MLE than Swift is worth so much more. If Boozer is worth 65 mil than Stromile is worth much more than the MLE. You can speculate all you want but Swift will never be a Rocket. And don't say we never thought we would get McGrady and look at us now. To get Mcgrady we still had some tradeable commodities. Memphis doesnot want anything we have outside of Yao and Tmac. Memphis will not trade with a conference rival unless the scale is shifted heavily in their favor. That means all things being equal Memphis will trade to anyone else in the east. Already their are teams offering better deals. The Lakers are offering Butler and anyone not named Kobe or Lamar. The Knicks or dangling Kurt or Narz among others and the nets and Wiz are still both very interested among many others. So the only way Houston gets Swift is if he wants to be a champion more than he wants the $$$'s and don't bet on it!
Swift is not coming here. He was offered an extension by Memphis last summer starting at 6-7 mil. a year and turned it down. He will never take our MLE offer. Udonis Haslem, on other hand, might be a realistic choice. Is he an restricted FA? I think that I heard somewhere (maybe during a Heat game) that since he was a second round pick, they won't be able to match an offer and bring him back.
Do the Rox have a legit chance to sign SS? Sure. If they have a legit chance to move Mo and Ho. Does SS not appear to be a perfect fit with Kidd's Nets, if Jason returns for next season? Does SS + ?? not appear to be a perfect SnT for Grizz? To me, Swift as a Rock appears a very long shot. I am also not sold on him. Now, Chandler -- there could be something interesting there.
Yupp he is but I'd rather go after Marshall than Haslem... Swift IF you want to win some rings you should come here! To bad you woun't becuase you'll go after the $$ and later on when you carrier is comming to an end you'll want to sign with a good team for the next to nothing. & there is no garantee you will win the ring with them ala Malone/Lakers. Why dont you take the safe way out and come here where you know every year you will have a chance to win the ring! <-- NOW THATS WISHFUL THINKING
Your're missing several of the major points that were made by Duece and Nike. - What Swift will be offered as a FA is dependent on the Market. Last year there were fewer top players available and there were more teams with money under the cap. It's supply and demand. Last year, supply was down and demand was up (at least at premium price range) so the price was high, this year supply is up and demand is down (at least at a premium price), so price should be lower. - Go back an re-read Duece's original post. Memphis has major cap problems, that's the reason that they wouldn't offer Swift a big contract. Because of that, they're not going to want to take back salaries, especially since they'd have to be within 15% of Swift's new salary. If they were going to do that, then they'd just pay Swift in the first place, rather than trading him. Duece's point is that the only attractive deal for the Grizz is to get back draft choices only, that way they don't increase their payroll. If they S&T Swift for players from LA, NY or anybody else, then they still take a cap hit, which they can't afford. - What do you mean that teams are "already offering better deals"? Since Swift signed the Grizz one year tender offer, he can't be traded this season. So, why would teams be making offers on a player that is inelligible to be traded?
That's what I figure... or at the very least, another WC division. Which is a shame, because Swift would be a terrific compliment to Yao and McGrady. We would have to totally luck out. West will do nothing to help us. Keep GARM Readable!!
aelliott, I was about to respond to OMR's post but I scrolled down and see you nailed it! Thanks! I am not saying we are getting Swift. I still think it is a longshot (but not a "pipdream"). But all of you that say we wont get him because he will "cost too much", Please re-read my original post (and Aelliott's response for that matter) and see WHY we have a chance at him THIS offseason as compared to LAST offseason's free agency climate. There are factors involved here than just Swift's "market value". Swift's performance gives him a certain market value, but if the market isnt there, then it isnt there. NIKE, as far as SAR goes, I think he might be one of those great bargins at the MLE, ditto with Antoine Walker (which I am not a fan of and certainly dont support him on the Rockets!). I really think this is going to be a buyers market. And like aelliott said, the "supply" in this offseason will outweight "demand" and thus we might see a lot of bargins compared to last year. Back to SAR....I like SAR but I dont think he would be a major upgrade on this team versus what we are currently getting from Howard. He has nice skills but if I am going to use my MLE dollars, I want to buy the right skills for the job and SAR really doesnt have the right skills for what we are looking for - rebounding, weakside shotblocking and defense against quick PFs. But, if he was all that was out there, I wouldnt turn him away. Moving on.....This was in a Memphis Grizzly areticle today. I dont think there is any question that West is going to TRY to engineer a S&T with Swift to another team, probably to a team that is offering a center. West is looking for a center that can play defense, block shots and rebound. We know that West likes Dampier, but what other centers are out there that will allow him to make a move? Curry, Dalembert, Z, Ratliff? I dont see it. I know West liked Jerome James before and he will be a FA. I guess West could try to do a S&T with Swift for a S&T James. But where would Swift fit in with Collison and Fortson on that Seattle team? And even if West did that deal would James give them anything Tsakalidis couldnt currently give them or Lorenzen Wright for that matter? The Rockets have to hope that West wont be able to find a good trade partner or good enough package to make a move. It will be interesting to see the battle between West's desire to not lose Swift for anything versus the Grizzlies current payroll and adding more long term salary.
Aelliot you are saying the same thing as I am, (Accept for the last point which I admit is speculation) only you are suggestion a different conclusion. Because it is you and I respect your history of knowledge in these area's I will concede that I probably haven't studied it as much. But irregardless of supply and demand and cap problems, the Griz's will do nothing to make the Rockets a better team unless there is no better offers in the east. And I would even go so far as to say that they would prefer to make trades with lesser teams in the west before the Rockets. If you are correct that they or trying to cut salary because of cap issues (which you should acknowledge is pure speculation on your part unless your are a member of Griz Staff) then draft picks would be better. But draft picks cost money too and it is also clear that Houston's draft will only get worst as they will most definitely be a playoff team for years to come. Also I don't pretend to know the cap situation of many teams but I expect there to be at leat a few under it enough to offer more than the MLE, correct me if I am wrong. And I also don't see a whole lot of better PF's on the market. Again correct me if I am wrong. SO to project that are TE and a low 1st round draft pick will get us Swift is still a pipe dream IMHO.
I hope you guys are right, but I think we have very little chance of landing Swift. I'm thinking about less than 10%.
Just to make sure everyone realizes this about Swift. He is an UNrestricted FA. That means SWIFT controls where he goes, NOT West! West can only help Swift get more money with a S&T. But if Swift wants to take someone elses MLE or take more money from a team under the cap, the West gets bubkis! West might not like Swift going to another Western Conference team, but he doesnt have ANY say in the matter unless Swift invites him to make a deal for both of their benefit.
SS will command 7mm to start, and will need a SnT to effect that, in all probability. If West wants to sign him he'll have to pay, or if he lowballs due to no available suitors with $$$ under the cap then chemistry will blow up his team. I remain unconvinced SS will find the Rox in his future.
This comment and most of the others on this posting are way off mark IMO. Swift is a leaper and a banger. Not much offensive game at all. A younger Cato. I am so much happier with a Howard/Padgett rotation than I would with having a Swift/and whoever rotation. With Howard (a good, good PF... I have been saying this since we traded for him) and Padgett we have two guys who can score and who hustle all the time. A great inside/out/midrange combination of offense. Can they grab every rebound? No. Can they guard the best PFs in the league? No... but no one can. But can they move well without the ball and pass and score? Yes. Do their skills match our current style of play? Yes. If Swift were the type of player that would give us a dynasty... he would be playing more in Memphis and producing better numbers.
I kinda agree with your post. Swift is an atheltic freak that can dunk and block shots, but he is not much more than that. I was drooling over Swift a little while back, but I realized he is not the banger, rebounding PF that we need. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have Swift on this team, but the guy is going to get some nice offers out there. And we basically have no chance at signing him with only the MLE. The only way we get Swift is through a S&T, which I highly doubt the Grizz would trade him to a conference rival, and plus, we have absolutely nothing the Grizz want.
With the 4 being our weakest position...it would be worth overpaying a bit to get Swift. His quickness and rebounding would be perfect for this team.
I don't know about you guys. But between Cato and Swift, I would pick our former sidekick to Yao. The only factor which would make me think a little harder is the age difference.
Swift has so much more offensive game than Cato it's not even funny. The fact that he can hit the mid-range jumper automatically makes him much more valuable than Cato for our offense. Plus Swift is capable of putting the ball on the floor, which makes it easier for him to cut and finish around the basket. While Cato has to be right next to the basket to finish off any play. I'd put Swift's offensive ability a bit below Howard's. But he makes that up by being a better rebounder and defender. Of all the PFs even remotely available to the Rockets, Swift is definitely the best fit.
So West didnt give Swift extension? The key is Swift wont take MLE even if the Spurs or Heat offering it. Lot of teams are willing take him at a much higher price. I dont buy the supply and demand theory compeletely. Swift is a stand-out in the un-restricted FA list this year.
Agreed! Personally, I think those that are downplaying Swift's offensive game surely havent seen him play much recently. In the past his offense was limited but this year he is hitting those mid range jumpers folks! Like Meh said, maybe not quite as well as Howard, but good enough where a team wouldnt just double off him and invite him to take that shot. And Swift CAN put the ball on the floor and drive. He has good hands unlike Cato.
"So you're saying there's a chance?" Seriously, I know the labor deal remains to be worked out, but any guess, NIKE, Aelliot, Clutch, regarding whether we will be enough under the Luxury Tax threshold to take on a MLE or S & T salary? My guess is that we would have to renounce Deke and Barry to do so, because aren't we at the cusp of the threshold right now (assuming there is a tax this year)? This is why I think we should even give up our #1 pick in a trade (a la the Glen Rice deal) that would allow us to trade MoT for an expiring contract (Dale Davis, Big Dog, etc.). The MLE or S & T player we could pick up as a result would be way better than any mid to late first round pick. But I still doubt if even our pick would be enough to get any club to take MoT's salary. From what I've read, the GMs are supposedly scared about taking on any contracts given the unknown of the future labor deal and future tax implications.
But they do have Bird Rights, which is actually much more relevant to the situation. (see below) Actually I think Memphis has anticipated the market and played it quite well. Swift/his agent would have to do an amazingly convincing job that he would take 1-2 mil less per year via the MLE (leaving Memphis high and dry), or another team HAS to work through Memphis. (As stated, the couple of teams who can compete with Memphis offer probably will have different aims than Swift). So Memphis in all practically does control things. If they do want Swift back, probably just over the MLE will do it, an amount well below market value for a PF of Swift's modest production but solid potential growth/youth. Swift has limited suiters next year-- teams under the cap by 6 or 7 mil, so it isn't a good market year for him. Even if Memphis wants no part of Swift on their team long term, they (Mem, Swift, agent) will get together and agree to contract parameters starting at like 6 or 7 mil (just enough to take the MLE threat away) and explore trading him for an expiring contract and picks or another player they really want. Worst case scenario for them--they really don't want to committ long term money no matter who was offered in a S&T for Swift--they are not going to sweat a 1 year expiring contract at 6 mil (matches a 7 mil starting contract for Swift) for the right to a 1st rounder or two--which is what they would get. In summary, unless Atl and Char goes for him (doubtfull), Memphis pretty much has control over the situation. Swift is not going to give up millions per year to save his new team a draft pick or two plus a player Memphis wants or expiring constract at a matching salary--and will work through them. Memphis just spent the whole MLE two years in a row, they might be more cost conscious next offseason but they are not going to blow their assets and turn a complete about face. Further, we are probably the VERY LAST team Memphis would want him to land in the whole league. They would take substantially less from a non-rival to make sure he doesn't go here, thus Swift ain't happenning here. And East conference young PF or vet like SAR is far more plausible.
