So a client calls up and asks why you recommended a bond fund that contains bonds that are NOT investment grade (as determined by the usual suspects like S&P). What do you say? "Well these fund managers know a thing or two more than those crazy bond raters and can determine which bonds have been misrated!!!" That would be a hard sell.
What about IT security (hardware and software)? Its one of the few spaces that grew right on through the bust and it isn't something companies can just do without.
They started giving out some info today, although much of the info was pretty much already known for the most part. I think the only surprising thing I've seen lately is that they can clock up around 5.0 GHz eek: ), although the Cell pics have been pretty cool. I've been trying to pay some attention to the info they're giving at the ISSCC to see how it may affect the power in the PS3, but it seems like there won't be any sure answers until later in the week, if anything useful is even given at the ISSCC. It does seem though that maybe only one "Cell" will go into the PS3, at least according to the "experts." I would say Cell could take off. Sony will use it for the PS3, which could mean 60+ million (probably way more IMO) consoles with Cell. Sony and Toshiba will use it in their TV's, and IBM will use it in their workstations. I also imagine that Sony may use a Cell workstation for their films (great CGI in Spider-man 3 ). Unfortunately, I don't think it will be able to make much of a dent in the PC market. BTW, from a gaming perspective, IBM should do quite well next-gen. They play a big part in each of the next-gen consoles, making two of them by themselves IIRC. Considering there are ~115 million GC's/PS2's/Xbox's out there right now IIRC, I would assume that at least that amount of consoles will have IBM's name in it somewhere next-gen. Of course, it is probably too late to join in on that boat. As for the PSP, that definitely can help out Sony, or at least SCE. So far, it has sold very well in Japan, basically being sold-out everywhere despite Sony making them as fast as they can as well as a pretty average (maybe even bad) game launch. The choice to only sell the value pack in the US does hurt them in a way, but considering they probably won't be able to really meet demand for a while, they may as well makeup any money they're losing on the PSP unit itself. The great game launch should help, and maybe during the summer, once the initial frenzy is over and they can start meeting demand, they can offer the PSP by itself in the US. Of course, by this time, GTA should be out around then, which should help sales if it is anything like the console versions. By that time, I would imagine they would be doing quite well and could then rely on the other great games to sell the PSP, as well as any special features they can add to it (web browsing, watching TV, etc). If SCE can be anywhere near as successful as Nintendo was/is in the handheld industry, they'll find a nice place to get some great profits. Nintendo makes a lot of money in the industry, which helps them stay pretty close with SCE in money earned through the gaming industry, despite the fact that the PS1/PS2 were much more successful than the N64/GC. Games may have a shot at getting something from China, although I'm sure about movies (doubt it). Piracy is/will be a problem, but I imagine developers/publishers want to get MMORPG's, or other online games, going in China. With that population, they could make a substantial amount of money, especially if a large % of China are into MMORPG's. Imagine a couple million subscribers paying $15 dollars a month. While I do like the possibilities that holographic discs offer, I think it will be a while until it is actually feasible. Blu-ray and HD-DVD already have quite a head start on it, and it may be a few years before they really make it into a majority of homes (probably depends on rate of HDTV sales). The holographic discs have some serious issues, IIRC, to overcome if they want to battle BR/HD-DVD, such as the price of the discs and the pressing lines. Companies are already ticked off at making lines for Blu-ray; I would imagine these discs would be even more expensive. If BR were to win the format war, I also doubt many companies would be willing to switch lines again to HVD's. I believe I read a while back that Sony made a deal with one of the companies that specializes in this field. Perhaps we could see this later on, maybe in the PS4. I know I would like the 1TB storage and 1Gb/s transfer speeds. Until then, I would guess that they'd only be used in special circumstances (perhaps businesses). BTW, I would like to say I know next to nothing about stocks. These were mostly just my general thoughts about these subjects, instead of advice or suggestions into what company you should invest in.
No Worries, please read up on portfolio theory. You may also want to read up on how bond portfolios can be sliced and diced to provide very attractive balances between returns and risk. There are a multitude of reasons why a very strong firm could be rated non-investment grade. For starters, most new companies are not investment grade. The rating agencies require a proven track record for many companies, regardless of their credit quality. To ignore the high yield asset class is a foolish mistake by any investor. Those of us that know the sector have profited, while those who would rather dismiss it as an investment because someone labeled it "junk" almost 2 decades ago have missed out.
I don't think Cell will be anything special, at least when compared to modern desktop processors if it were so revolutionary and powerful, they wouldn't need Nvidia to swoop in at the last minute and supply graphic chips for them I believe the original plan was to have the almighty Cell emulate Direct X, Open GL or whatever Sony uses but it apparently didn't have the horsepower for that There is no doubt in my mind that Sony didn't want to have to buy expensive chips from Nvidia if they didn't have to... that sort of thing can really hurt profits maybe Cell will have other qualities but some of the hype I've been hearing about it smells of BS
The fact that Nvidia is supplying the GPU for the PS3 has almost no relevance to how powerfull Cell really is. It is, after all, still a a CPU and needs a GPU to help in graphics processing as well. Cell could probably do some things that some CPU's can't when it comes to graphics, but it can't do some things as efficiently as a GPU, especially a top-of-the-line GPU from Nvidia. I was worried that Cell would very powerful, but Sony would put a pretty bad GPU in the PS3, pretty much forcing Cell to do things that it didn't have to do, limiting the overall performance of the console. With Nvidia on board, at least we know that the GPU won't limit the console...at least not too much. Plus, even if Sony's in-house GPU would have been better, Nvidia's GPU would probably be much more developer friendly, not mention the tools Nvidia can offer to them. Of course, this just talking about the possible success of Cell in the console world. In other areas, it may even do better. Sony may have to cut back on some things for Cell for the PS3, due to several issues, but Cell can be used to its max in other areas, where costs and release dates don't matter as much. I just read from someone who works at IBM that the real potential of Cell will be seen from their workstations and servers that will be released later in the year. I pretty much agree with you on the desktop processor part though. Cell won't make it as a PC CPU, at least, not AFAIK. Maybe you could get something if Apple helps out, plus the Linux community, but Cell isn't really general-purpose enough to really put a dent into Intel/AMD in the PC industry. How so? There are certainly some things that come into my mind (Toy Story, Matrix, etc.), but I'm curious to see what others think. I've come up on some old EE articles and videos, and some of it makes me wonder why everyone says that, to a degree.
i'm not supposed to talk about the market since i'm a professional trader and my company says don't talk about the market with anyone else outside of my office but i am a random idiot and i like talking about the market. first about SIRI and XMSR....they won't merge. number 1 it makes no sense. number 2 it woudn't be allowed. number 3 they aren't even talking about merging. that rumor was just a bunch of crap that was thrown out there since we have a lot of merger and acquisition hype going on lately. second....the next big growth stock. well it helps to go pick up an investor's business daily since that's basically all they deal with. many new growth stocks listed in there from all kinds of industries. who knows what will be the next WMT or MSFT. a lot has to do with starting with a small float for the stock, huge growth, little competition, and something unique. starting with a small float means there are a small number of shares outstanding which means little dillution of the stock price. the exact opposite of SIRI which has so much dillution it is sick. who knows maybe the next big growth stock is TASR. it's up like 5000+% in 2 years and still has room to grow. the management has been solid so far, their balance sheet is impecable, however the indirect manipulation of the stock price by management in the past couple months has left me some questions about them. if you want me to explain how they manipulated it i can. anyhow...they have all the things you want to look for in a company poised for huge growth. unique technology, leader in the industry, potential to expand overseas, and the people who use tasers love having them. but like no worries said great tech + bad management = bad investment. time will tell if TASR is going to be great and crush its competitors and continue to develop new less than lethal technologies like the taser land mine. i dunno there are others that i will probably think of later but TASR is really the first one that comes to mind. KMRT may have potential too. it's under great management now. i do have other things i like as investments but it's doubtful they will be as dominant as another MSFT.
PANL- small cap company right now. They make semiconductors for LCD. Their product is OLEDs...next big thing. No debt, cash on hand, in the $7 range now. Lenovo Group - look up the ADR. They are the largest computer company in China...signed deals with Dell and Microsoft recently.
RFID's are supposed to get pretty popular in the near future just because of walmart. They are requiring their supplier to include RFID's on pallets and stuff. Of course, they could just refuse. But, if they didn't - I'd like to be sitting on that lotto ticket.
well thats a shot against TASR after missing earnings for the first time i have ever seen. one quarter isnt everything but this wasnt a good quarter by any stretch of the imagination.
You geekheads (and I mean that affectionatly) need to look beyond technology. Unless a company has an contolling intrest in something that is a total breakthrough and will be pervasive, there is just too much competition from third world manufacturers to have any profit margin. You guys are thinking like the 90's. I bought Micrsoft in 1991 and Cisco in 1994, the only problem is that I didn't sell it before 3/11/2000 (grits teeth and self flagellates for the 1 millionth time) On junk bonds..good investing is always about ferreting out the best risk/return ratio and just like equities you can find bonds that are undervalued. And, if you think better economic times are ahead (like most of you seem to think) the value of junk bonds rise as the income of the issueing company grows (but so does the risk of being called..but I never worry too much about that). Hey I am an old dude, and I see a lot of risk in the market for the reasons I stated, so I have been mostly buying Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMO's) issue by the FHA and FMAC. They are guaranteed and should return around 8%. I'm also buying into some gas well drilling and some selected private commercial real estate investment trusts. But my real Home Run Pick for the next 5 years would be....... Hedge Funds Specifically the new one start up controlled by Carl Ichon. I think shorting will make more money than investing both in stocks and currencies.
