Had a different scenario taken place for Yao(draft)...

I believe that fate was in his favor. For example, if Yao had been drafted second round he may have never gotten the chance to prove himself. Many players don't. He may very well have been a .60% FG shooter who scored 5.4 ppg and who sat the bench his entire career. Never given a chance.

As for our expectations. We would be extatic if he had been given the chance and produced like he is now. Expectations are relative. No doubt about it. If Boki average 18 ppg his bandwagon would be hovering near Yogasm. But, as if with anything, Boki would eventually be asked by all fans to score 24 ppg. It is inevitable that expectations rise.

So all that said, eventually Yao would be held to the same standard as he is now. It would just take longer to get there.

 

risk/reward

opportunity cost

yes..i'd be much happier with yao if we didn't have to spend the very first pick in the draft to get him. of course. the expectations, regularly posted here, were astronomical.

 

I don't think that's a fair argument. With the number one pick overall, you are trying to sign a potential franchise player. (Dream, Duncan, Robinson, Bron, Ewing, Pervis Ellison). Of course that doesn't always work out. With lower picks, you are looking to fill the holes in your line-up, or with even lower picks just find value.

yao is a solid player amd was the obvious choice, but the jury's still out on whether he can take the next step.

 

But even that doesn't matter, considering the draft. Right now, only two guys from that year would deserve to be picked first - Yao Ming and Amare Stoudemire. Amare is a better scorer and athlete. Yao Ming is a better shooter, passer, and so far has been a slightly better rebounder (Amare plays more minutes).

 

but this presumes i could have yao and whoever else in that draft i wanted.

 

I don't see the point with this hypothetical scenario. NBA teams scouts international players much better nowadays. There's simply no way a player of Yao's caliber can possibly slip through the cracks outside lottery. If he did, then he wouldn't have the ability to put together a ROY caliber season(even if he was robbed of the award by Amare). It's one thing to miss an athletic swingman or a point guard. But centers are always drafted higher than their skills might indicate.

 

Ok, let's say that we didn't get the first pick, how many people wouldn't have taken Yao. The bulls took Curry and Chandler when they had Brand, so could they have been crazy enough to pass up on the consensus U.S. number 1 pick, a pg in Jay Williams and draft foreign center that many still wasn't sure was able to get clearance to play in the U.S.? Maybe, maybe not. But I guarantee you if Yao wasn't the first pick, he would easily be in the top 5 pick. As far as Amare, he was a PF and we had a glut of those at that time (pre crazy EG, Kenny Thomas and Mo T). Though none of them stand out, they were all still decent options at that time, enough for us not to take a HS PF.

The positions we were really lacking in were SF and C at the time of the draft. We had Cato, so unless we had a standout Center to draft, we would've most likely have taken some one like Dunleavy if available at our pick (which could've been something like 8th or ninth) or most likely Caron Butler (if we were smart enough), Jared Jefferies (might've been ok with us) or Ryan Humphrey (would've been another wasted pick). Now, if they did decide to draft a center (confidence in Cato too low, or value one of the other guys too high), they might've take Nikoloz Tskitishvili (Rudy loves European Centers), Nene Hilario, or Melvin Ely. None of those players jumps out at me. I think the Rockets were very lucky to get Yao as he was the best option.

 

wizkid -- i agree. i've been critical of yao to some degree, despite rooting for him like crazy. but i can't look back honestly and say they should have done something different, knowing what they know now.

but refman said they should have made the trade for odom and then drafted stoudemire. he said that back then. frankly, that sounds pretty good.

 

Now I that I've thought about it, maybe Yao could've have fallen, not because of his potential, but because of all the hoops that a team that wanted to draft him had to jump through. Remember what a long nightmarish situation that was for us? Would've the Bulls, with Curry and Chandler be willing to do that to draft him #1 (if they've gotten it) when they could've drafted Jay Williams that everyone in the U.S. knows and loves?

Most scouts in the states still projected Yao to be a few year project, and people weren't wowed at the Chicago camp in which Yao got pushed around by a projected 2nd rounder even though he showed good shooting touch. Which means that lottery teams with need for instant contribution for their picks might be unwilling to take that chance with Yao even if they had the #1 pick, especially with Jay Williams (I think people forgot how hyped up he was that year) on the board.

The Rockets were infact, the one lottery team that would've 100% taken Yao with the first pick. We already had a playoff worthy roster (so would've been willing to take a chance on a long term project that Yao was that year), a all star PG ( so we wouldn't have take Jay Williams under any circumstances). Not saying that other teams wouldn't have done it, just that the Rox were most likely to do so. If Yao wasn't gonna be the first pick, then the question is would the teams with the 2nd and 3rd or lower picks be willing to go through all that crap with the Chinese Basket Ball assoication, when there was a possibliity that he still could've been taken above them? That's very hard to tell.

Lastly, look at the first 5 games of Yao's rookie year.

10/30 @IND L 82-91 11 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 3 0

November Rebounds
GAMEDATE OPP RESULT MIN FG FGA FG3 FG3A FT FTA OFF DEF TREB A STL BLK TO PF PTS
11/01 @DEN W 83-74 13 1 5 0 0 0 0 2 5 7 1 0 0 0 2 2
11/02 TOR W 88-76 24 4 7 0 0 0 2 1 3 4 0 0 1 2 3 8
11/05 SEA L 97-105 15 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 1 0 0 1 4 0
11/09 GS W 111-104 7 1 1 0 0 1 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 2 3

most teams might've have a permanent spot for Yao on the bench after he was crossed over badly by Steph Marbury to give him time to "develope" for the next three years. The reason that he got more time and minutes despite his early short comings was because Kelvin Cato left the team for personal reasons right after that (and we started Jason Collier ) and with this sudden unexpected opening, Yao took it and became the player we know he is today.

So in short, I believe in fate, and I think it's fate that Yao landed with the Rox and we landed with him.

 

He got a touch of how to do business in China, Chinese basket ball association style

 

Remember when there was talk about Odom plus the Clipper's #8 and #15 picks for the First Pick (Yao)?

That could have turned into:

1. Francis
2. Mobeley
3. Lamar Odom
4. Amare Stoudemire at #8 (whom the Rockets were high on)
5. Kelvin Cato

Off the bench:

Eddie Griffin
Tayshaun Prince at #15 (whom the Rockets were high on)
others

There was also talk at that point of Eddie Griffin plus cap-filler for Rashard Lewis.

We still could have moved Francis, Mobley and Cato for Tracy McGrady and players.

Then we are looking at

1. Sura
2. McGrady
3. Lewis
4. Odom
5. Stoudemire

with Tayshaun Prince and Juwan Howard off the bench.

WE COULD HAVE BEEN THIS YEAR'S PHOENIX SUNS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Uh, didn't we have #15 (Boki)? I'm pretty sure the discussed deal was #1 for Odom and either #8 (Wilcox?) or #12 (Ely?).

 

Oops, yeah I should have said 12 insted of 15. I thought it was both picks. Leverage them! Even with one we would have been okay.

All those players were still available at the slots at which I took them.

 

This team would make a first-round exit in the playoffs, just like the team that we have now. We wouldn't have Mcgrady if we went another direction in the draft.

Rudy T. might still be the Rockets coach, though.

 

it's all moot

 

Even if we'd had any of those scenarios, the Reason Tracy McGrade FORCED a trade to Houston by saying thats where he wanted to go was to play with Yao Ming.

Yao dropped 37 points on the Magic Last year and dont think McGrady forgot about that. Even if we had traded it for Odom and Amare,I would raher have Ming/Tracy and our team now rather than Francis/Amare/Cat maybe Odom (who was signed for a HIGH amount that would've killed our cap.

Ming/McGrady. There are millions of possibilities but just be glad we have one of the top 3 guards in the league and one of the top big men in the league.

Top Guards: McGrady/Kobe/LeBron

Top Big Men: Duncan/Garnett/Shaq/Nowitzki/Amare/Yao

 

I doubt Amare would fourish with Francis. He's a good finisher but nothing else. His defense and boards leave much to be desired.
Nash/Amare >> Francis/Amare.

 

That's why I went the next step with the acquisition of McGrady still.

McGrady can only encourage Orlando to see the wisdom of trading him. He can't demand relocation to a particular team other than implying a willingness to do a long-term deal so that they sweeten the offer and increase the likelihood of it being accepted.

We are still "able" to give Orlando exactly the same players that they eventually accepted. It's a bit harder to give up Cato because Stoudemire is more of a 4 than a 5... but I'd still do it.

Remember, we almost lost McGrady to Indiana. They made quite a good offer-- better in my opinion. I think Larry Bird blew a gasket when it got passed over.