[OrlandoSentinel] Rockets won't win Title with Yao, TMac alone

Heh, now someone really is spinning, and it's not me; I certainly wasn't suggesting a total overhaul. We were talking about the likelihood of winning a championship, remember, not about which of the two teams takes more Geritol.

Orlando is one sprained ankle away from being mediocre for years to come: if Hill gets seriously hurt again, the Magic's championship hopes almost certainly go down the drain. Therefore they need to win it all really soon, this year or next. How likely is that?

Our two key players, on the other hand, are young and healthy. We have time. And the tinkering we need to do on our role players (over 30 or not) is routine, whereas Orlando almost needs a miracle: either Hill remaining healthy for many years to come, or another great player falling onto their laps the way T-Mac fell onto ours.

So which team is far more likely to win a championship before Francis retires? I think Francis knows the answer, and that is why he seems so wistful whenever he gets together with Yao.

 

Ah, I see, so you subscribe to the "Grant Hill is the only reason why they are any good" theory, you give no props to Howard, who was a badass earlier before he got tired and who will be a badass in this league when he matures, and you are a believer in the "Francis isn't Bob Cousy therefore he will never win a championship muhuhahahaha!" theory, which looks really prescient in light of Chauncey Billups performance last year

Notwithstanding all that, guess what: one injury to t-mac, and he is no ironman either, and we're not just a borderline lotto team as we are now, we are a fulltime lotto team, so your theory just destroyed itself.

 

Sure seems that way. Maybe bashing the Rockets and T-mac makes them feel a little better about that trade and about their team.

 

Is anyone doubting that losing Hill or Francis for a long stretch would be disastrous for Orlando? Just as losing Yao or T-Mac for a similar period would be horrendous for us. Of the four superstars, Hill is by far the most likely to have his career ended by one injury, which means that Orlando is much more vulnerable than we are.

Thus Orlando is much less likely to win a championship than we are, even if you ignore the fact that Hill is 8 years older than T-Mac and 9 years older than Yao.

 

Relatively insignificant point but Motay (who is as well a Rox regular) is only 28.

 

That put him in his place

 

Why do I get the feeling that everytime I see an article from Orlando media, it sounds EXACTLY like a troll piece on the ESPN message board? Lots of SOUP GRAPES and TOTALLY BIASED bullsh*t?

Why?

 

Did anyone else find this particularly amusing?

 

Everyone seems to continually overlook the single most important fact that will now-and-forever make this a better deal for the Rockets...

We recieved the ONE player exchanged in the entire deal who is capable of putting a team on his back and carrying them to a championship...END OF STORY.

NBA rings are won by the teams that have a top 5 player on their team. Unlike Football or Baseball where the superstar can be neutralized by the opposing team, basketball is a game where every single possession can be influenced by a single player. That is why the team with the best individual player almost always takes home the ring.

Excluding last years Pistons (a fluke IMO), just look at the history of past champions and who led that team.
2003-Duncan (multiple MVP, possibly best overall player)
2002-Shaq (most dominating C of the past decade, and possibly ever when all is said and done)
2001-Shaq
2000-Shaq
1999-Duncan
1998-MJ (nuff said)
1997-MJ
1996-MJ
1995-Hakeem (undoubtedly in the top 5 and maybe the best overall while MJ was shagging fly balls)
1994-Hakeem
1993-MJ
1992-MJ
1991-MJ
no need to go into the Bird/Magic era of dominance, is there?

Anyway...does anyone see a pattern emerging yet? Of the past 14 champions, only last years Pistons did not feature a MVP, Hall-of-Fame player who ranks with the finest to ever play the game.

It is the true HoF Superstars who win championships.

Above average role players (like Hedo/Cato/Nelson/Christie) certainly help, but they rarely are the deciding factor in who wins or loses a playoff series. If quality depth were the deciding factor in winning a ring, why have Dallas and Sacto repeatedly come up empty despite having All-Stars backing up All-Stars?

The answer: because any team led by CWebb/Peja/Bibby or Dirk/Nash/Finley doesn't have that individual badass who can go head-to-head with the likes of Duncan, Shaq, Kobe or Garnett. Dirk is having his best year ever and Nash might win the MVP, but does anyone honestly think either team has what it takes to beat the Spurs in the WCF or the Heat in the Finals? Of course not, which is why Tim and Shaq already have multiple rings.

Shaq and Kobe combined for 3 straight titles supported by guys like Ron Harper, Brian Shaw, and Slava Medvedenko. MJ and Scottie won 6 with DRodman, HoGrant and a bunch of forgettables like Steve Kerr, Luc Longley, and Bill Cartwright in the starting lineup. Hakeem and Clyde won 2 with guys like Chucky Brown, Kenny Smith and Robert Horry starting alongside them.

All nice role players for sure, and good complementary pieces are essential, but if that is all you have, your team is never going to win squat.

I'm not saying the tandem of Tmac and Yao has reached that level yet, but they are a hell of a lot closer than Francis and Hill or Francis and Howard. If Yao ever holds up his part of the bargain and becomes a consistent, reliable force in the middle, I see no reason why a team with tough, gritty veterans like Sura, Wesley and Deke can't win a title.

Are you telling me DFisher is that much (if any) better than BSura?

Is DWesley any worse than Ron Harper?

Who would you rather have, Deke or Slava Medvedenko?

As for McGrady, while he hasn't won anything either, he is right there with Kobe and LeBron as the best wing-player in the league. He has repeatedly shown in only half a season that he has that rare ability to take over a game in the 4th quarter and almost singlehandedly will his team to victory, as all the truly great ones do. I have no doubt, if given the chance, he could work similar miracles deep into the playoffs and even all the way to the podium to shake hands with DStern in June.

Unfortunately, in 5 years I never saw that quality in Francis. I hope he proves me wrong, b/c I do like the guy, but I don't think a 6-year veteran suddenly develops that killer instinct. You either have it or you don't. Tmac does, Francis doesn't (though he leaves his heart on the court trying), and just the sound of the word "killer" is enough to give Yao nightmares and make him wet his bed. But that's OK, b/c with Tmac as the lead horse, Yao and his delicate nature fit in nicely as the second banana. None of that Kobe-Shaq "it's my team" crap. It's Tmac's team, and with any luck Yao may be able to pick up a couple of championships riding his coattails.

Plain and simple:

Championships are won by elite individual talent surrounded by a tough, veteran group of role players, not a deep collection of nice players and almost-but-not-quite superstars. The Rockets have one elite player already (Tmac) and another who will soon become the best true C in basketball (Yao), if not top 5 overall. It's entirely on their collective shoulders as to how soon this team becomes title-worthy. While I do agree we need a PF who can grab 10 boards a game and play some D, and while a true PG would be nice to supplement Sura, finding these pieces is the easy part.

The Magic have a young, entertaining team built around an All-Star PG who has played in one postseason series his entire career, a broken-down SF whose feel-good comeback story only brings back painful reminders of what he once was for anyone who saw him in his prime, and an 18-year old rookie PF who shows a lot of potential but is probably at least 4 years away from challenging the likes of JO'neal, Amare, KG and Duncan for a ring.

As of now, they don't have a single player who belongs in the same paragraph with names like Duncan, Shaq, MJ or Hakeem. Hill was one, Francis thinks he is one, and DHoward might become one, but none of them ARE one. Until they get one, they will be a lot like the Rockets were for most of Francis' stay here; good enough to tease you into believing, but not good enough to actually accomplish anything of substance.

So stop with all of this nonsense...it is clear one team's future (present and longterm) is much, much brighter thanks to four lovely letters...

T-M-A-C

 

"It's the worn-out journeymen around them now who will change in coming seasons like a revolving door."

Good lord. My highschool paper had better written articles than this. That's the worst metaphor I've ever seen. It's completely obvious he started out saying one thing and then completely switched gears then never went back and edited it. REVOLVING DOORS DON'T CHANGE, MAN! They just keep on REVOLVING and people come in and out. So if you said something like, "The Rockets might as well install a revolving door in their locker room because worn-out journeymen will be in and out in coming seasons." That would work. It would be boring and cliche, but it would work. But changing like a revolving door? Come on, man!

 

If Howard continues to progress like Amare (they are putting up comparable #'s as rookie) , losing Hill won't matter much, and while Weisbroad is a jerk, he's not dumb enough to be build his team around Hill; Anything they get from Hill is gravy at this point, he was written off a long time ago.

The cornerstones of their future aren't Hill and Francis, it's Francis and the 19 year old Howard. This isn't in doubt.

 

Absolutely great post, Milos, and I hate to nit-pick, but....

Weren't the 90 champs the Pistons? Same with 89? (The questions marks are because I was about twelve years old at the time and I'm only going off of memory. I did no research before posting this; though I'm fairly certain I'm right.) And that team was similiar, even if more talented, to the current Pistons. Isiah Thomas was a hell of a point guard, but if his name comes up at all when discussing "the greatest players of an era" it comes up as an after thought. I still enjoyed your post and agree with it for the most part, but you know, I guess I'm a stickler and can't let things slide.

 

That's BS. Surround TMac & Yao with above average 1, 2, and 4 and let's talk.

 

jmw,

Yeah I know my theory isn't perfect. There are many anomolies in the history of the league (89, 90 and 04 Pistons; 79 Sonics; mid-70s Blazers) where a team without an All-time great won the title.

Still, from Mikan to Russel to West to Kareem to Magic to Dr. J to Bird to MJ to Hakeem to Shaq to Duncan, the vast majority (I'd guess at least 75%) of past champions featured at least one guy who was among the best three or four players in the league at that time.

IMO, Tmac is in that class. If he had our team in 1st place right now, like LeBron has Cleveland, Nash has Phoenix and Wade/Shaq have the Heat, he would be among the leading candidates for MVP b/c he is clearly the heart and soul of this team.

It is no coincidence that as Tmac has caught fire over the last 6 weeks, so have the Rockets. I think the only reason we aren't in the top 4 in the West already is the slow start and Yao's maddening inconsistency and reluctance to dominate. I put the failures of this team so far squarely on Yao's lack of progression from a good young player into a great veteran leader. If he ever makes the kind of leap that Amare has made this season (25PPG/10RPG), the Rockets will have all they will ever need to annually compete for the title.

 

I will have to disagree with your characterization of Yao's role in Rockets' championship run. If Yao's role is only going to ride on T-Mac's cocktails, then forget about Hoston's championship dream. How far Rockets' will go depends largely upon how far Yao can go: it takes a dominant Yao PLUS T-MAC to get the rings.

T-Mac is further along in his career now, as one of the elite players in the league; Yao is still not there yet. T-Mac is not MJ, he will not be able to carry Rcokets to championships solely on his shoulders; beating average teams or even good teams in regular season is quite different from beating elite teams in palyoff.

Bottomline, just because T-Mac has had some amazing games so far doesn't mean Yao is or should be relegated to a role player status. Rockets needs Yao as much as T-Mac. This team needs a one-two punch.

 

An old proverb is appropriate here: do not count your chickens before they hatch. If Hill is promoted permanently to "TV commentator", Orlando has one superstar and one big question mark left.

In contrast, the Rockets have their two superstars already.

Which team is more likely to win the championship?

 

Being a media superstar and being an NBA superstar are different things; anyway, you're in the distinct minority if you don't think Howard can reach the 19-9 "superstar" plateau that you set; even with his recent dropoff, he's got a lot more buyers than sellers.

Neither team is likely to win a championship anytime soon though, as I have said before in different contexts, it is like two homeless guys arguing over who's going to have the bigger mansion. Both are mediocre teams that will hover a few games over .500 all year long and require changes/progress to get better.

 

Please do not impute to me what I haven't said. Thanks. "19-9" is not my superstar level, and I have never said it was. You clearly want to play definition games, Clinton-like, and I decline.

Just wake me up when DHoward starts averaging 19-9 despite having his shot seriously impaired by injury, and despite being double teamed and wrestled with all night. He may reach that high a level someday, but the likelihood is that very few teams will ever bother to double him. It is foolish to bet your championship hopes on someone who may or may not improve beyond the role-player level -- unless, like the people in Orlando, you have no other choice.

The question was "which team is more likely to win a championship in the coming years?" My answer is Houston. Your answer is to dodge the question: you say that neither team is likely to win it this year. Well, of course.

 

Sorry, I didn't know there was a sliding superstar scale for Yao Ming and his various hardships that I had to use that can't be applied to Dwight Howard. He's already an excellent player out of high school, and he's going to be an all star in the near future. If you can't see this, I'm sorry, but I'm going to trust my own eyes and the reveiws of his peers over your criticism, which is apparently, that he's not Yao Ming.

But anyway, neither team is likely to win it this year, nor next, nor the year after most likely barring a major personnel overhaull, unless you think Sura, Wesley and Howard are going to tap the fountain of youth at age 37 while the superstars drag them across the line; it's a senseless argument because it's complete speculation. "Dodging"? I'm not dodging anything, save useless predictions. Say Grant Hill never comes back and the Magic use his huge void to sign somebody to a max deal and vault into contention. Say he does and they're mediocre. Who cares? It doesn't prove anything either way.

 

I look forward to the Orlando Sentinel's next article dealing with the team that beat them in two games by a combined 20 points, one of which was without their superstar.