From Milwaukee Journal Regarding Redd's availability

I doubt we have any chance at all.

He says he wants to stay in Milwaukee, a place where he is the #1 scoring option and became an All-Star. Playing with LeBron and returning back to Ohio has to be tempting but I think when push comes to shove, he'll stay. I'd imagine the Cavs will make their pitch, Redd will consider. Milwaukee will then panic and give him what he wants and after weighing his options, he'll stay in Milwaukee. Just my opinion though.

 

I'm sure the Bucks are just dying to get their hands on a couple of rocket players.

http://www.edtsui.com/mp3/cc.mp3

 

Redd is going to command a salary around what Richard Hamilton got which is somewhere around 9-10M a year. The Cavs have their designs on Redd. Redd is from Ohio. The Cavs will have cap room to get Redd in the offseason so chances are that's where he is going.

I dont see ANY way the Rockets can get Redd.

 

it is a pity Redd would leave the Bucks

he is unrestricted but wouldn't the Bucks have his Bird rights and be able to go over the cap to sign him to whatever contract

if not a Redd, James tandem plus Z and Gooden has an exciting look about it

 

TNT just reported that Nugg and Mil were discussing the trade of Nene and Redd.

 

better not happen because i was hoping our for a trade with us =)

It actually is good for both of them except that there's no point in getting an inside presence if you're gonna trade away your outside one.

 

Still no way even this trade fails, I have to say.

 

hence, the =)

 

Only if they renounce Z will they have the cap room. They are about $6m over the cap now (per Patricia Bender's site), with only Z, DeSagana Diop, Scott Williams, and Jeff McInnis free agents this year. Combined, that's around $8m -- with a salary cap of $43.5m, that still leaves them just $2m under, which assumes that a) they renounce McInnis (very unlikely) and all other free agents (likely) and b) their contracted players' raises cancel out any increase in the salary cap next year (unlikely; the former is likely to be more than the latter).

Unless the Cavs want to give up their starting PG and one of the few legit centers in the East -- yet alone the league -- they need a sign & trade to get it done or hope that Redd will take the midcap exception.

 

I don't think I agree with the "only if they renounce Z" part.

First and probably most importantly, there is no CBA after this season so whatever we discuss assumes those aspects roll over into the next CBA. Secondly, the website I use has the Cavs with $23m committed for 05-06. Let's say they re-sign Z to $8.0m and McInnis to $6.0m which is a little over the current MLE. Both of those are generous offers and probably a little high, but that takes their committed to $ $37m.

If the cap remains at $43m, they have at least $6m to sign Redd...but more if they can negotiate downward with Z and/or McInnis (or the cap rises).

Scott Williams is not of consequence since he was signed and can be re-signed with the vet minimum. They may lose Diop in the process, but I'd trade Redd for Diop 24x7.

 

Not surprising. Nene wants out of Denver. The Bucks want to get something for Redd before he becomes a FA. I think this trade scenario has been brought up numerous times because it really is a trade that helps both teams.

Redd is a lot better catch for Nene than anything the Rockets could throw their way.

 

The CBA does expire after this season, so really any talk about what is possible/isn't possible is kinda moot until that's figured out, but it's more than likely the cap figures and free agency processes stay about the same. The only thing that has really been discussed is shortening the length of new contracts, which doesn't enter into the equation.

The Cavs have the following players under contract for next year, with all numbers approximate (to within $100k) except for the rookie scale deals (which are exact):

Drew Gooden (4th year rookie) -- $4,065,811
Luscious Harris (2nd year of 2yr deal) -- $2,750,000
Tractor Traylor (2nd year, team option) -- $1,750,000
LeBron James (3rd year rookie) -- $4,621,800
Alexander Pavlovic (ditto) -- $1,274,160
Anderson Varejao (2nd year of 3yr deal) -- $900,000
Luke Jackson (2nd year rookie) -- $1,955,160
Ira Newble (3rd year of 5yr deal) -- $3,000,000
Eric Snow (2nd year of 4yr extension) -- $6,300,000

Those total up to $26.57m. When you factor in that Ilgauskas will not be renounced, he hits the cap (initially) at about $22m alone, or 150% of this year's salary. That takes them to $48.57m, likely slightly over next year's cap. I would be absolutely shocked if Z only got $8m next year -- though it's obvious he isn't going to get $22m either. With the dearth of centers out there and the contracts that have been given to others of a lesser talent set, he's likely to end up very near a max deal once again, or about $12-$15m in the first year. Going conservative at $12m, that takes their salary to $38.5m.

McInnis at $3m/yr is a bargain. He will hit the cap at about $4.5m unrenounced (again, 150% of this year's contract) and that is the minimum he will likely command on the open market. After all, look at the deals given to players like Eric Snow and Ira Newble on the Cavs alone, as well as the relative dearth of starting point guards in the league. Plus, McInnis is a Silas favorite and is the best starter for that team. Using $4.5m as a conservative number, that takes them to around $42.5m for next year. I will note that initially, I had DaJuan Wagner in next year's salary; however, his 4th year option was not picked up and he will likely be renounced with the other free agents (particularly due to a ~$5m hit on the cap after the year).

Unless the salary cap goes up by quite a bit, they are able to dump some salary, or McInnis and/or Z take quite a bit less than their value on the open market, I just don't see the Cavs as being able to make a max offer for Redd. Even if one or more of those above happen, it's still going to be tough.

 

Then where did Nug get money to sign Melon?

 

They drafted Carmelo Anthony...the NBA has a soft cap, meaning you can go over the cap to sign your own free agents (with different rules depending upon their Bird rights), minimum/exception salaried players, and rookie draft picks.

 

They have McInnis' Bird Rights. They can keep him unrenounced until they make their other moves, and go over the cap to sign him later.

I think:
a.) You're overestimating Z's value in the market.
b.) You're overestimating Z's value to the Cavs.

What team on the open market gives him even 8 mill/yr deal when he's 30 years old with a pretty bad history of foot problems?

The Cavs like to run and Big Z isn't a part of that. For his size, he's not a particularly great rebounder, and definitely not much of a passer.

Their roster plus McInnis unrenounced brings them to 31.07 mill. That gives them:
McInnis/Snow
Harris/Pavlovic
James/Newble/Jackson
Gooden/Traylor
Varejao

Guys like Pavlovic, Varejao and especially Jackson could be fairly easily pawned off. Harris in his last year could be as well. They could decline the option on Traylor, and that's another almost 2 mill.

Let's assume a salary cap of 45 mill. Redd's max salary would be 25% of that, or 11.25 mill. That takes the Cavs to 42.32 mill. Let's assume they decline the option on Traylor, and sign a guy to the vet min. later. Let's also allow them to pawn off Pavlovic (to say, a team with a large trade exception like the Rockets) in dire need of a shooter.

That brings them down to 39.29 mill. With a 45 mill salary cap, that leaves 5.7 mill for a center. Would Philly match an offer like that for Dalembert? Doubtful. Would Washington match that for Kwame Brown? Unlikely. 5.7 mill could probably land them a guy like Stromile Swift as well. If you get Redd to accept a deal starting closer to 9 or 10 mill, that's another couple mill to play with for a big man. Any of these options would allow the Cavs to keep an uptempo game, while still having the shot blocker/rebounder in the middle. They're also all younger.

McInnis/Snow
Redd/Harris
James/Newble/Jackson
Gooden
(Dalembert, Kwame, Swift)/Varejao

The roster is a little unbalanced, but there would be role playing FAs out there willing to play with LeBron for cheap. A guy like Luke Jackson would seem to no longer fit with Redd/James manning the wings, and he could probably fetch a good big man.

PS- Unrenounced players do not count against the cap for more than the maximum salary. For players who made more in their last year than the CBA mandated max, it's 105% of their previous salary. In Ziggy's case, that's closer to 15 mill than 22 mill.

Edit: Here's what I get for trusting someone else's numbers...

Jeff McInnis made 3.6 mill this year, not 3 mill. The Cavs have his Bird Rights. That 3.6 mill will certainly be under the league average salary, and thus his unrenounced salary counts at 200%, not 150%, of 3.6 mill, not 3 mill. McInnis certainly won't make a starting salary of 7.2 mill, so the Cavs will sign him first- I'd guess a starting salary anywhere between 5 and 6 mill. If Redd took a deal starting at 10 mill, rather than 11.5, this would make no difference.

Paying nearly 3 mill for Luscious Harris to play 3rd string PG and backup SG is silly. If McInnis is assumed at 6 mill, and they unload Harris instead of Pavlovic, the numbers are practically identical. (plus 1.5 for McInnis, minus 1.5 for Harris to Pavlovic).

mfclark, you may remember a team a few years ago that traded a one year removed lotto pick, another lotto pick, and a backup PF whose salary they needed to clear for a future first rounder. I know a certain Western Conference team with a sizable trade exception that would gladly take, say Luscious Harris along with Luke Jackson off their hands, and give them a future first round pick for their troubles.

 

NIKEstrad -- they may have McInnis' bird rights, but he still counts on the cap unrenounced, and that $4.5m he will count against the cap until a deal is signed is

Dalembert will command Magloire-type money on the open market because of his athleticism, skill set, and production when given the time in Philly. It's likely the Sixers will try to keep him, too, now that he's out of O'Brien's doghouse. Centers just aren't nearly as easy to come by as you might think, particularly ones that can rebound or defend. If they were, teams wouldn't be throwing $5m+/year at players like Adonal Foyle, Calvin Booth, Jerome James, Marc Jackson, Michael Olowokandi...need I go on?

Ilgauskas does a reasonable job and, from any center-strapped team, will command the money. He'll get it from the Cavs, too, seeing as how they don't have a replacement for him. He gives them a weapon in the playoffs that many teams in the East don't have (ditto for LeBron) -- a legit low post scorer -- and one that can also hit an outside shot too. With a lack of centers out there on the open market -- and competition for those that are available -- and already tight funds, it's not likely they let Ilgauskas go. He is several years removed from his foot injuries and has been a productive player and All-Star since.

Kwame Brown isn't worth $5.7m, and Stromile Swift is more than likely looking for more than that. He might be a realistic option, but how do he and Gooden co-exist? They tried it once in Memphis and it didn't work so hot, with Gooden and Swift both out of position alongside Gasol. They are both power forwards; Gooden struggled at center in Orlando and Swift, while he might be able to hold his own there, isn't really one either.

With Redd being happy in Milwaukee, I think it's unlikely he'll take less just to go to another team. Milwaukee is a much different team with T.J. Ford, as they showed last year, versus without. They'll have some manuvering room too, with Van Horn's contract up (not to mention 10 others). They can keep Redd and add someone to the team -- the same players Cleveland can add -- and potentially do well in the coming years once Ford is healthy. They don't have the allure of LeBron James, but they do have the allure of letting Redd be the #1 option and lead the team.

 

mfclark -
You are missing the most important point of NIKE's post. Players only count against the cap until renounced or re-signed. Clearly (since he is the heaviest hitter) the Cavs will have substantial cap space once Z is re-signed. All the other contracts are background noise.

We could debate which website has the most accurate numbers all day, but IMO the Cavs will easily have enough money over the current MLE that they will not have to give up any core players to obtain Redd. Don't lose sight of the fact that as an UFA, Redd can go where he wants even if it's for MLE $.

As I believe NIKE's post demonstrated, by signing Z and McInnis to any reasonable offer, the Cavs will have more than MLE $ to tempt a player who grew up in Columbus, OH and played for Ohio State.

 

-My original numbers calculated an unrenounced McInnis hitting the cap. My second set of numbers calculated McInnis resigned at 6 mill, with a perfectly plausible scenario (dumping Luscious Harris with 1 year, 2.75 mill left).

Congratulations! You just proved my point. Dalembert will get a Magloire-sized contract (which, personally I think he won't since Magloire put up a whole season of 11-8 before he signed the extension. He signed a 3 yr, 20.25 mill extension according to Bender's site. Take a guess what that starts out at? 6 mill. So very out of the 5.7 mill realm my scenario produced. Factor in a longer deal for Dalembert, and he gets a base lower than 6 mill. A 5 year contract at 5.7 mill with 10% increases comes to 34.2 mill. That averages out to slightly greater than the contract Magloire got. Given that Dalembert has proven less than Magloire had, the 5.7 mill starting salary would suit him well.

Philly's already got 58 million committed for next year. and 61 the following year. A 6 mill contract for a guy who hasn't played much for them would be considered rather foolhardy imo.