Man, really thought they would get Beck, but I can't see that now. Tronstein was always a pipe dream.
I had someone with the Cubs tell me that Peterson was telling teams he wouldn’t sign for less than 4.5 million - so the Astros must really believe in his power and glove on the corner to take him. Well he didn’t get 4.5 million but he still got a major payday - and yeah, Brown and others in the front office must really believe in him. I didn’t expect the kid from Beverly Hills to sign - he was taken for leverage (probably against Peterson) but I hoped they would get Beck. I still think the Astros did very well this draft - a number of these guys are 1-2 rebound talent. I like their high schoolers.
How these guys’ bonuses align with draft slots: Hughes 1st rd (27) Radel 1st rd (31) Peterson 1st rd (32) Johnson 2nd rd Mendes 2nd rd Durnin 4th rd Eddy 7th rd Addari 7th rd Carney, Piasecki, Pruitt, Butler, Fiene, Thomas, Galloway, Tryon, Soto, Miller, Uebelhor 11-20/UDFA Effectively, the Astros traded a 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and a 9th round pick for a 1st and a 2nd. In terms of slot assignments they got 5 of the top 60 picks. I think that’s a pretty good job of consolidating talent. Of course that assumes Houston is giving out bonuses that are aligned with talent level which is a huge assumption. It would have been good if Peterson would have taken $500k less so they could get Beck. I really like Peterson but 1st rd money is big bet. Hope it pays off. I think their top 6 picks all fall in the top 20 prospects in the org. It’s a very significant influx of talent and all 6 of those guys have the upside to be long term core pieces.
Yea I think we were all counting on Beck joining the org, I know we'll all be watching his college career these next few years
Only thing that's coming to mind is that Beck's camp suddenly upped their demands, which was clearly not amenable to the Astros, so whatever he was supposed to get went to Peterson as a sweetener.
So where does that leave Nowak? Is the $1 including the slot bonus for him? Otherwise, if they sign him they go over the 5% and if they don't sign him they loose the pool money and still end up over. Or did they change all that?
They can sign him for 150K or less (slot money for 11-20th rounds). The 150 does not count against the bonus pool. It's basically "take it or leave it". I'd assume he's looking at transfer options and NIL money as a fallback. eta: He's an interesting guy, slashed .333 .496 .452 .948 with 25BB v 8K in the wood bat Northwoods college summer league this year.
They can give him up to $150,000 without penalty. But they don’t have any room to give him more than that. I’m assuming he’s going back to school.
Novak's slot is $150,000 which is still available. My best guess is that Novak has verbally agreed to the $150,000 (or the Astros would not have drafted him) but has not officially signed the contract. BTW, most the 11-20 picks signed right at slot ($150,000).
One thing I’m wondering if we might start seeing is guys get drafted then colleges start coming after them during negotiations with their MLB team. What’s to keep Vanderbilt (who just lost Keon Johnson) from calling Jack Beck last week and offering him Johnson’s NIL money. So all of a sudden Beck has leverage he didnt have before the draft and can up his price. Thats shady because I’m sure they had “agreements” before they picked him, but if I was advising a player like Beck, as soon as the draft was over I’d be calling colleges who lost players and seeing if they wanted to jump into the bidding.
As an aside ... The Portal has significantly changed the major collegiate sports. WRT college baseball, I am failing to see the value proposition a top 30 college program has for an incoming freshman. For example take Tronstein likely was a four year starter for his HS team and the best player on the team all four years. Tronstein also likely was all district 3 if not 4 years in HS and all state 1 if not 2 times. Tronstein likely has played travel ball at the highest levels since middle school. This fall when Tronstein steps onto Vanderbilt's campus for classes and fall ball he will not be the best player on the team (yet) and may not even be the best SS on the team. Vanderbilt's HC gets paid to win, so he will start the best players. Winning is first; development is second. This offseason, Vanderbilt's HC could not assume the HSers who committed would actually come (see Keon Johnson). When the portal opened up, the HC went looking players who would improve his roster and that most certainly includes SS. Tronstein may not end up playing that much his freshman year, which I am betting will surprise him. The baseball training that Vanderbilt coaching staff delivers may be some of the best in college baseball. Tronstein will benefit from that training. That is the bottomline value proposition. Between his freshman and sophomore year, more HSers will commit to Vanderbilt and more players with more playing experience than Tronstein will transfer from the Portal to Vanderbilt. Tronstein's pathway to getting onto the field does not get easier. It almost makes more sense for uber talented HS baseball players to commit to mid-majors, which lose more than they gain from the Portal and which can give HSers rock solid guarantees for playing time. After one year if all goes well, players can then jump to a better program via the Portal.
Overall, I like this draft. The Astros needed an infusion of talented prospects, particularly those with high floors. As others have noted, there isn't the high end talent, but there is quality in quantity. They took some risks on the high schoolers and hopefully that pays off for the franchise. Given where things stand with the uncertainty of the CBA, the likelihood that Astros are sellers at some point with Pena/Parades, and another top 15 draft pick, I like what they did. Thanks for all the excellent coverage by everyone, particulary Snake and Nook. It will be interesting to learn where these guys fall in our top 30 prospect list and where our farm system ranks now.
Good points. But really it just depends on how good the HS kid is and how dishonest the college coach is. There are some HS players good enough to play even over portal transfers who have been multi-year starters for mid-majors (or even 2nd tier big conference schools). Generally I think it’s in the players’ best interest to go pro as soon as they have the talent to get drafted in the top 10 rounds. But the ones who go to school definitely need to go somewhere they are confident they will get playing time so they can develop, and you’re right that is probably becoming a riskier proposition.
