The Ringer: Why Can’t the Rockets Win the Next NBA Title?

Dodged that crappy contract.

 

When you actually get away from Rockets reddit or the GARM, you'll find that most of the league and greater NBA media isn't as pessimistic on the Rockets....

Basing our entire future after 2 playoff series, one of which was the team's first and second one we were missing key players, seems like classic overreaction.

Clearly the greater NBA media landscape has eyes and saw how FVV was literally out for the entire season and we didn't address it at last mid season deadline. We have a 50 win base and a lot of yall are weirdly dismissive of it.

 

There are a lot of entitled b****es on this forum to be sure…

 

Forget about series wins, this team has never had a series lead. Hoping for good health and internal development to get us to a championship is wishful thinking.

 

It's the exact opposite lol. The actual market knows the Rockets have much worse prospects than homers on this forum/twitter think, or a single random puff piece Ringer article puts out.

Rockets are currently 15th in the league in title odds, 16th in some places. 7th in the West in conference odds. You can get 40 to 1 on us winning the West, which is "never happening" levels. 46.5 win total and has been steaming downwards (and the regular season is supposed to be our strength).

If we had any chance of contention or even a "50 win base" that would be free money out there. But it isn't, because we don't.

 

That's how it works. Low ceiling teams and small playoff samples go hand in hand. This squad could have 3 or 4 series' worth of experience right now if they took care of business. Both series losses themselves were just reflections of the regular season issues. This is like Stone saying one series doesn't define (Jalen Green's) career. It wasn't the series, it was one series plus four years of struggle.

 

And last offseason at this same time in July..... what were the odds of the Knicks winning? Spurs making it to the finals? Pistons and Celtics being first and second respectively?

Why are you quoting odds when the roster isn't even set? Why does the puff piece list the Rockets potential due in part to their assets they can still trade for in this offseason or mid season deadline?

Vegas aside, you actually think the a chunk of the league just stepped past us?

 

This is exactly the truth. This team has found a formula for regular season wins. There is something to be said for the fact that in the playoffs, injuries happen and the landscape shifts, but if we can't beat a Lakers team without Luka and Austin Reaves I'm not sure which playoff teams we CAN beat.

This year is the year where another catastrophic playoff failure will result in a reshaping of our triangle of sadness:
- Sengun doesn't defend well, doesn't space the floor
- Amen/Sengun don't fit offensively
- our coach doesn't really coach offense, and only rewards defensive effort

Something has to give. One of these three pieces (Udoka, Sengun, and Amen) don't fit. And the easy route is firing Udoka. But even then, can any modern offense thrive with two non shooters who effectively accomplish nothing off ball?

Reed Sheppard won't solve any problems because like it or note he's still going to be a defensive liability. Fred theoretically "fixes" the offense by making smart passes, hitting big shots, and not getting played off the floor but we don't really know what he's going to look like on the other side of his injury. Adams and KD are incredible, but it will be a small miracle if both are healthy when the playoffs roll around.

Despite my pessimism, I will always love these teams. But the foundation here is cracked and the house is starting to sag.

 

How what works? Take care of business? Do most super young teams lose their first playoff series? Seems like wildly overinflated expectations when weren't favored to win against GSW.

Of course the post season losses are a reflection of the regular season issues.... We were an elite defensive team who struggled to score in 2024 season and were a more balanced team that had terrible injury luck in 2025. There's really no argument that a 31 year old guard who blew out their knee is the offseason is anything but unlucky. Disagree? Please list how the players and their ages who had season ending injuries in the offseason. It's super rare. Even the timing made it more unlucky because had FVV gone out before we used our cap then we would have had a backup.

 

There are a lot of signs that this team chemistry is off, and it has been for over a year. The KD burner was not the issue, it was all of the things and players he was calling out that were the issue, its not just one event of being caught, its the content of the messages.

Recent signs:
-KD Burner and all of the things he calls out, the responses of players during interviews about this

-Giving a 25 year old injury prone role player $81M guaranteed and him seeming upset about it with the team

-Dennis Schroder who is a journeyman at this point who will be pushing for 1-2 year min contracts soon risked losing a job, goes out and calls out the Rockets as being the worst org and most disorganized, and without a real GM or front office (the players under contract likely agree they just cant say anything) this guy would rather burn a bridge than keep his mouth shut about how bad things are, John Wall did the same, the second Tari is off this team you know his mom will be destroying this org publicly.

-If you've been on here long enough, you have seen previous teams have players always hanging out together in the off season, you would see group pics of them on the plane together, even when the teams were not great you had enough access to the players that you know they spend time together. Some of the guys use to be like this, but they have grown apart. (Tari, Bari, Sengun, Amen) I think Tari and Amen use to be closer, his contract situation seemed to be something that caused an issue.

-We have gotten rid of vets that were the type to bring players together (Boban, although he was otherwise a waste of a roster spot, Dillon Brooks was a key glue guy, I think Jeff Green is gone? FVV is not that guy, he is a fake leader. He puts on a show that he is a leader, but if you listen to him on podcasts, the guy is about himself first. Telling Reed i cant tell you, but just watch me, that is a shitty mentor to have. Moving Lucas to the front office, you also lose a guy who was like a therapist to the young guys when things got heated, Ime is not a high EQ guy hes a dictator which is fine, but we also do not have the the assistant coaches to really round out the staff, things went completely downhill after losing Tiago, and look at how well he is doing as a leader himself now, we never replaced that.

Marcus Smart would have been that guy 5-6 years ago, but you have to be on the court for players to really listen to you, you cant just be in street clothes. You need a guy who is on the court to be a good glue guy, its why Boban and Jeff Green's impacts were limited.

Another sign is to just look at Clutchfan's, how many X is the franchise player threads are there? It's because there is no true alpha on this team, you have a bunch of high draft picks and big egos, but no one actually knows who the leader is. That is a big part of the chemistry issue.

 

Dennis Schroder? When he played for 14 games in 2021-22 season after mid season trade during our full post harden season? Really that is a sign of the chemistry is off?

 

Why do you think the West got better?

Did Minn really get better losing 2 of their top scorers then getting an erratic player in Ball?

Den is on the verge of losing Watson and spencer jones. They lost hardaway and valencius then signes tyus jones and bagley.

OKC lost several productive bench guys and have J Williams who hasn’t looked right since his injuries last year.

Lakers lost LeBron hachumura kennard and smart and replaced them with Kessler, sexton, and grimes. Does that look like a championship team to you?

who got better in the West? I don’t see it

 

There's pros and cons with Stone so far but he's undeniably been really disciplined at not overpaying on extensions. It's largely irrelevant but I think it's a near certainty we wouldn't be paying what the Cavs are to Mobley. Probably absolute worst would be a max without the awards escalator like Wemby just signed.