I think the question would be why would we want to hire someone to use tactics that are outdated and used by much of the league now? Lunhow made those things work because no one else was doing them. Returning to them in a completely different world is like running the triangle offense today because it worked so well in 1997. In another thread, you mentioned Lunhow finding a whole rotation cheap out of the DR and why Brown doesn't do the same. Besides the fact that he's on a different timeline, it's because 29 other teams are now aggressively scouting those same players in a way they weren't doing in 2015.
Breaking down the various deadline approach: The strategy: scorched earth rebuild The moves: trade everyone on the major league roster with <3 years of control. Yordan, Brown, Pena, and Paredes provide an insane amount of value. The outcome: Houston would have one of the top 2 farm systems in the league and a very low payroll but would likely finish in the bottom 5 in the league in 2026 and 2027. The crux: Do you punt on 2027-2028 even though that’s the end of Altuve’s run and you still have several star players under control? Is Dana Brown the right guy to make those moves? The strategy: soft rebuild The moves: trade rentals and guys with one more year of control (Walker, Pena, Paredes, Lambert, Abreu, Okert, Javier) The outcome: Astros have a top 10 farm system, finish in the bottom 5 in 2026, have some money to spend. 2027 would depend on the offseason but they should be competitive in 2028. The crux: Why keep Yordan if you’re going to trade away your 3 next best hitters? The strategy: stand pat The moves: add around the fringes of the roster, a 3rd tier LH OF and maybe a RP The outcome: nothing meaningful, Astros still probably miss the playoffs, and the farm doesn’t get gutted or improved. The crux: half-assing almost never works but this might save some face without throwing good money after bad The strategy: play both sides The moves: market Pena/Paredes/Walker and trade whichever provides the best value, trade away rentals, add a good controllable OF, SP, and RP The outcome: Dana Brown is in the spotlight with this strategy, as it will be viewed as either genius or idiotic. The crux: can the GM “win” the deadline and come out with a deeper MLB roster while also adding an elite prospect to the farm system? The strategy: soft buy The moves: Consolidate 3rd tier upper level prospects into a decent but not great OF, SP, and RP to fill out the current roster without significantly degrading the farm system. The outcome: This probabiy makes the season interesting and keeps Houston in the hunt into September, but is very unlikely to result in a deep playoff run. The crux: is the 2026 roster worth investing in, and if it is wouldn’t it warrant bigger moves? The strategy: all-in The moves: trade prospects (including the few elite prospects from the lower levels) to add a controllable star OF, ToR SP, and setup man. The outcome: the Astros almost certainly stay in the playoff hunt into September, their odds of making the playoffs get into the 35-55% range, and you never know what happens once they get in. They also ensure they have a competitive roster projected thru 2028. The crux: with a current <20% chance of making the playoffs, why sacrifice the good future for the mediocre present?
Burrows was dealt by the Pirates in large part because he is known as difficult and stubborn and opinionated. He is often called a reda$$ (@Buck Turgidson ) The opinion that I have expressed to me by people that have dealt with Brown is that he picks his times to give his opinion to Crane... that on some stuff, Crane makes his mind up and no one, including Brown, is going to talk him out of it. I don't know if Brown is good or bad. Brown basically has control of the draft and scouts. He was able to promote Gavin Dickey and bring in some well thought of long term player development people.... but he only gets to sign players at or near the minimum. He is given a budget - and then Crane signs or trades for players to blow that budget up. What is the biggest signing that was entirely Brown? Caratini? Crane at this point is literally making all of the major decisions.
This spells it out really well. At this point I believe that they are in the "soft buy" stage. What I have been told is that Brown would like to rebuild - but that Crane isn't there.
That is a big problem. He needs to trust his GM or get another one. I'm guessing he's planning on replacing Brown given the lack of extension.
I'm in the fire Espada and stand pat. I think by making that change it would be good to see if even just the vibe changes as we've seen with other clubs this year.
He likes Brown a lot - but that doesn't mean that he will survive because someone will have to take the blame. I don't read too much into the contract situation because he has done this "one year" nonsense with Luhnow and Click in the past.
There are still advantages to be had in the Caribbean. Crane just needs to hire the best Coyotes. Look at K. Alvarez as an example. BTW, you make it seem like it's impossible to find cheap talent. The problem really is Crane decided to hire people who take a different approach than what previously worked. Good news is guys like Fermin are on the way state side next yr. Crane has really screwed this up. Hire a competent GM and let him do his job, instead of hiring a good scout to be GM. Playing Cam everyday is flat out dumb. Really Cam and Matthews should be in AAA learning how to hit instead of playing everyday. Heck, adding another Wade level OF would be an upgrade. This is roster neglect IMHO. BTW, the bar has been set very high and Dana has failed to live up to that bar. It's hard for me to get really excited about anybody in the minors after seeing Dana's gems Cam/Matthews be 2 of the worst hitting OF'ers in MLB. After seeing Dana's trades do you trust him to sell off at the deadline and add the talent needed to rebuild a championship roster? I dont, this org is in a bad spot and the reason I only want Dana to make trades arond the margins is I dont trust him to make trades that are long term wins like previous GM's did.
This is what I would do and try to trade with the Red Sox for their Asian LF. Or the Cards I would see if they would trade Nootbar for Arrighetti.
I also want to go back to being 25 and able to dunk. The world has moved on - his circumstances are no more, and I live in a world of reality, not wistful adoration of the past. Also, some 'what he did' caused us to be here. He was a brilliant executive a shitty relationship manager. It's a classic McKinsey profile (and, before you jump on me, I was a partner at McKinsey ... I know of what I speak, and I know a LOT of people who knew him). All of that said -- I was clear in my original post that "I do believe his mentality would help" in this circumstance. I was POSITIVE about him. You cannot accept even positive comments unless they are fawning. I also didn't say a word about you - then you have repeatedly told me what I value, what I appreciate, etc. It's a bit disturbing.
Great breakdown...If I were given the choice, I'd go with the play both sides strategy. But with Espada still here...I'm not sure any of them matter anyway.
McKinsey people are forward thinking people. I assume you're too. What I'm talking about is take the processes Luhnow put in place and improve on those processes. This can be done. Give me a brilliant executive and I could care less if he's a crappy relationship manager. Why, because brilliant people usually are successful and all I care about is winning. I dont care about how he gets a long with the press/others. I want a single minded brilliant executive that's hell bent on winning and will do whatever it takes to make sure winning happens. Do you think I just described Dana?That's how you build dynasties. Obviously you dont think like I do and that's fine. Since you brought up what I think you value vs what you apparently do value, please chime in and tell me what you do value? Do you put winning 1st and foremost like I do?
