The "franchise player" debate has been settled. It's Amen.

Sure, but that's on 25 shots, I don't think that's exactly a representative sample.

Each individual shot is worth 4% so he made 4 or 5 more shots than expected in that sample, but it's most likely that he'd regress to expected numbers with a larger sample, especially if he stopped being left wide open.

In that playoff sample 86% of his shots over 10 feet from the rim were either open or wide open as defined by not having a defender within 4 feet of him. 40% were specifically wide open as defined by having no defender within 6 feet of him.

It's good that he made a few more shots than expected, but I don't see that as much to build on

 

This pretty much proves the idea that teams invite Amen to shoot these inefficient shots.

Where are the defenders when 86% of the shots are open / wide open?

Doubling KD and Sengun.

 

That's what you were talking about. I was just looking up the stats of those guys you used for comparison. If Amen is to be the franchise player (which is what this thread is about) him shooting at high 40s from that range won't be good enough. He has to be elite like KD and SGA, or if he is going to be like Ant and Luka, his 3pt shooting will need to be as good as theirs and the midrange is only a supplementary shot.

The fact is, when we are talking about "midrange" mostly we are talking about 10' away from the basket. Amen shot in the low 30s in the range of 10-24 ft. That's worse percentage than the league average of the 3pt shot.

I am not arguing that Amen can't be our franchise player. I agree with the posters who believe he's our best chance. And I am moderately hopeful that he will improve. What is obvious to me is that if he can't be a good jump shooter, we can't build a championship team around him. Your bar of high 40s in the "midrange" is too low unless his 3 is also up to at least the league average on high volume.

We've seen a ball dominant inefficient high volume shooting "franchise player" like Bancharo or Morant. A team built around those guys aren't going anywhere.

 

I'll add to this and say, our previous attempt at a franchise player failed because his shooting was too inconsistent and Amen's got to work to even hit those trash levels. Defense is amazing, it doesn't make franchise players.

 

Alot of it is defending his drive too, they can’t contest his mid range shot. If they get too close it’s a blow by.

Same thing with Sengun, something that’s being over looked is how good they are driving to the rim.

They’ve gotten good feedback from doing that their entire careers. Defenses couldn’t defend their shots if they wanted to.

It’s not the same to compare them as non shooters to Nick Richards or Matisse Thybulle. Those guys don’t have the elite alternative other option to consider instead of shooting.

Confidence is such a major factor in shooting, having that decision to make rather than it being an obvious decision to catch and release is tougher.

 

Gravity stats suggests it is clearly KD opposing teams guard. Big drop to Reed, though still way way above average. Big drop then JSJ. Decent drop then Sengun and Tari. Decent drop to Okogie. Large drop to Amen/Capela. For Sengun, he's in a lot of actions. I think if he was not in actions, he would not be guarded as closely (i.e., he's being guarded closely because his man needs to be close in case Durant or Reed come around a pick).

For the playoffs, JSJ was smothered, but that was likely because the Rockets just had no one else the Lakers deemed worthy of guarding.

 

And this semantic discussion about "midrange" is why we currently do not have an extension signed by Amen. Clearly the Roxs and Amen's camp are not budging on their respective numbers.

 

Honestly, it's better for us to let him play another season and prove his improvement, but I think they probably will come together on a deal.

 

I think it's better for the team/cap to get him on a Sengun like deal.

I had hope we'd compromise and he'd sign a short term Jalen Green like deal at ~22% cap (2 year + PO).

 

Which is fine.

The Rockets have no incentive to extend him early and I like that Amen has the confidence in himself to not take a lowball.

 

Sources? How do you know? It’s not clear at all. I hope Amen signs a long term extension as low as possible for the Rockets, but my hope ain’t worth a nickel. If I was to guess I’d say if he agrees to an extension it will be somewhere North of what Sengun got, but below the max. Just speculation.

 

Why would you need sources? There is no deal so far which clearly means the sides are not budging as of yet. The sides' respective numbers also include number of years.

I have no idea what the outcome will be, but I feel based on past history the Rockets will not overpay in cap % and years in a meaningful manner.

 

For all that talk though, the results are the same: You don't have to guard Amen at all, just put a big next to the rim in drop coverage, or pack the paint and don't even let him get near enough. That's not a franchise player, it's a complete liability if you're trying to compete for a chip because we're playing 4 on 5 on offense whenever he's on the court. Franchise player? The dude may actually be UNPLAYABLE in a deep playoff run...

 

Of course, that's a big part of why he had so damn many turnovers trying to play point KD while getting doubled with no outlets that came to the ball (make yourself available) and can dribble / shoot / pass.

It's like the Ime and the front office people don't value dudes that can dribble / pass / shoot.


But can he play defense?! Ok, putt'em in!

 

Looking at what he’s done up until now and this past season, he’s the closest to a franchise player that we got.

 

I think you are too harsh about Amen's offense. He's not a "complete liability" or "unplayable" on offense. An offensive liability wouldn't be able to score 19 points per game on good efficiency.

He's a liability only when two other non-shooters are on the floor and he is asked to initiate offense from the 3pt line. (Same can be said about Sengun. It's really mind-boggling that a large part of our offense consists of having two non-shooters initiating offense from the outside.) Amen's offensive stats look very much like a decent offensive big man's stats: close range shots, put backs from offensive rebounds, etc. He provides good rim pressure that the defense can't ignore. The defense can ignore him when he is in the perimeter having the ball in his hands.

It's funny that both Alpi and Amen would be good playing PF with a stretch 5 (in different ways of course). That's why these two guys don't fit well playing together because they have the same glaring weakness.

 

Get this man a stretch 5 and clear that paint for my boy

 

Mid range is defined by the NBA is any shot outside the paint and below the 3 pt line.

Low to mid 40’s in mid range is not too low. Not everyone shoots 54% like SGA. I looked at other guards mid range and tallied up some of the biggest names in the league from 25-26. Their mid range avg was collectively 44%

Jaylen brown 41%
Sga 54%
Brunson 50%
Booker 45%
Kawhi 46%
Edwards 43%
Doncic 44%
Cade 48%
Maxey 43%
Murray 45%
Ball 36%
Castle 44%
White 43%
Garland 41%
Jrue 40%
Mitchell 48%

some notable non guards:

Lebron 40%
Barnes 44%
Tatum 35%
KD 48%
PG 45%
Siakim 34%
Victor 39%
MPJ 36%

 

for him to be more successful on offense he needs a dribble pullup. Let’s just aim for 40-41% this year and build from there. And get a corner 3 or above the break 3 at 35% for starters. He also needs to improve his drive FG% and layup FG%. He drives at an amazing rate but doesn’t finish. I expect to see him improve in these areas year 4 and we may see even better numbers in year 5.