It is fair to point out that the lower minor leagues look good - but they are a long way from the big leagues. As for Neyens, I have been concerned about his strikeouts all year - but he cut his strikeout percentage down and increased his walks, which is why he was promoted. In his last 30 games he has an OB% of .500. He isn't a sure thing though, and he could end up with too high a whiff rate in the high minors. He is still a top 100 level prospect to open next year. Alvarez should be top 50-75 as well and I would not be surprised if Albert Fermin starts attracting a lot of attention. This is the best run of producing prospects by the Astros in a number of years. As for rebuilding the farm system -- Brown has been GM for 4 drafts (including the one just completed). In two of those four drafts he did not have a second round draft pick and he was without a 3rd or 4th rounder (I don't remember which) in one of those drafts. Two of his #1 picks were #28 and the other two were #21 and #17. So it isn't as if he has had premium draft positioning to work with. Also - the system he inherited was not a good one in the lower minors. Expecting him to rebuild the farm system with the system he inherited - deprived of the picks he has been - and where he has picked at the top of the draft isn't very likely for anyone. As far as signings - what signing do you think that Brown was instrumental in? It wasn't Hader or Imai. I guess you can blame him for Walker, but he has been good this year. Victor Caratini? He was solid but not spectacular. Ronnell Blanco was a Brown guy. Lambert? The Tucker trade? The Burrows trade was a Brown deal - it hasn't been good, but neither has the players he gave up in the deal. Kikuchi? He was good for the Astros. I guess we can argue that Brown should have stood up to Crane against Hader and Tatsuya and Correa.... and targeted someone other than Walker. However, Brown also saw what happened to Click. The circumstances surrounding Luhnow and Click were VASTLY different. Luhnow was able to bottom out and Click took over an absolutely stacked team with enough in the minors to make deals and fill holes in the rotation. Brown inherited a team locked into a lot of payroll, older players that were nearing free agency or had already been extended and a minor league system that lacked the players to fill the holes. To be clear - I am not claiming that Brown is a great or even good GM, I really cannot tell based on the totality of circumstances and restrictions he has on him, and that he has an owner that decides which big players to target and sign. It is very possible that Brown sucks - there are a lot of things I don't like, including his manager choice and his lack of younger number crunchers and women in the organization. I think that limits the perspective of the organization. However - I also believe that his work in the international market looks very promising, and his drafting has been hampered.
Neyens k rate is 30%, and it’s been much lower over his last 100 pa. Brown has in fact rebuilt the lower levels of the farm system. Did you know the Astros W/L record under Dana Brown is higher than it was under Jeff Luhnow? Completely rebuilding a farm system takes 3+ years, and it’s harder if you are drafting at the bottom of the draft and consistently have less picks than other teams. Is your contention that some other mystery GM would have somehow convinced a bunch of Astros’ core players to accept team-friendly extensions? It is more than fair criticism to highlight Dana Brown’s inability to fill out the rotation (including the botched Javier extension) and outfield this season. But criticizing his trades and drafts is questionable at best. FWIW, I think Jim Crane is the best owner in Astros history by far and one of the best owners in MLB over the last 20 years. But a lot of the issues currently facing Houston’s roster partially fit on his shoulders (lost picks for sign stealing, lost picks for signing Hader, signing Imai, trading for Correa, unwillingness to go over the tax, etc.)
At least 3 all-stars for almost a decade. Great run. Spoiler Astros odds are getting differential treatment. Really hope Peña stays healthy and Imai finds a clue.
Thank you. All I ask is that people use well thought out and reasonable critiques and look at the whole picture, not just what’s happening on the field in the major leagues. Take all the context into account. I think that most criticism is emotion in nature from a spoiled fan base. I don’t know if he is a good GM or not, but I can sure recognize what he has been up against since joining the Astros. Part of the Astros problems, in my opinion, is the swinging door at the GM spot.
I don't know how you can be certain he's rebuilt the lower levels of the system given that we won't know whether those prospects pan out for years to come. But you certainly know prospects better than I do. I think a W/L comparison between Luhnow and Brown is pretty meaningless given Luhnow was successfully trying to tank and rebuild and then win a title (check, check, check) while Brown has been unsuccessful so far keeping an aging team competitive. I hear lots of excuses as to why the rebuilding of a system is difficult and why a GM needs more years than Brown has been given to produce results. How it's difficult to make core players accept extensions. How it's difficult to fill out a rotation. How it's difficult to draft without higher picks. How there are institutional disadvantages that Brown had faced within the Astros org. I didn't say that being GM is an easy job. There's a reason they get paid 7 figure salaries! But don't tell me Brown been successful, on the whole, in his job. Don't tell me he's done a good job choosing a manager, or crafting a rotation, or signing free agents. If this team didn't have Yordan (whose cheap contract predates Brown) they would be challenging the Angels and Royals for the bottom of the AL standings. It didn't take this long to figure out Tim Pupura wasn't cutting it as GM. The "drafting late" thing is a bit beaten to death. The Dodgers signed De Paula, their #1 guy, as an international FA. They traded Gavin Lux for their #2 guy, Sirota. They have 8 guys in the MLB top 100, none of whom they selected with a high pick. The Astros have two. I'm not saying that I have the scouting acumen to pick the right international guys or know what minor league prospects to trade for. But Dana Brown is supposed to be that guy, and it hasn't manifested yet in ways that have contributed to our 29th ranked minor league system. I've seen guys rushed up to the bigs who might have benefitted from some more time in the high minors, like Cam Smith and Brice Matthews. By the way, I was looking to compare Neyens with someone who had big strikeout numbers and power, and the first name I thought of was Adam Dunn. Dunn struck out in 18% of his PA in the minors and 28% of the time in the majors. Remember strikeout merchant Chris Carter from the tanking Astros era? 24% strikeout rate in the minors, 33% in the majors. Neyens is in rare territory in his early-career numbers. He's a teenager still, so he's certainly got time to improve.
I think you have to take your lumps . It's simply unreasonable to expect things to go your way for so long . We don't have the spending capacity LA or NY and frankly crane has upped the spending ante at the MLB level more than any astros owner before. I like Dana Brown so far , I used to be frustrated with his caginess on injuries in interviews, but it's all part of the game . The Dodgers , imo , have broken baseball a bit . There are a few teams that have stepped up to the plate to try to spend along , and the Astros are part of that group . It's hard to say how front offices actually make decisions on value and production .. but I think it's easy to get caught up in hype and confirmation bias. I'd like to think this has happened more than once and I'd like anyone's opinion on this..... But I think there is a bit of a network effect that is hard to sort out when evaluating players and prospects . Baseball doesn't happen in a vacuum and the batter in front of you and behind you matter . My point being , we could all look at Dana Brown as a god next year . If he hits on a couple of our top picks in this draft and they produce , along with our current top prospects sustaining their development. It's not unreasonable to think that we might "rank" as a top 10 farm system this winter (conservatively top 15) . The trade value for individual pieces will go up. Kinda like when the astros were trading guys from 2015-2021 ish . When your system was producing all stars from 2011 with springer , 2012 , Correa , 2013 and 2014 you didn't get much ... But lunhow quickly moved some guys and got value . 2015 breg and tucker slam dunk . The fact that our system was producing MLB all star talent made it a deep pool to gamble from. And so guys were worth good amounts in trades. That's the true value of having a premium farm system ... Plus all the cheap MLB production. Even though we correctly analyzed and kept players who produced for us , we still let some guys like laureano get away. Even then , your system is still viewed as a gold mine. Long story short , when you are on a minor league team loaded with hot prospects it's probably easier to actually produce . That production turns up your grades 5 points Your MLB situation plays into this also . If you establish an all-star caliber player under control you can trade away surplus minor league value at his position I think our team should be better next year . Correa should be good to go . With pena , paredes , walker , and altuve ... You could do a lot worse for an infield. Correa can play 2b. Whether it's Cam or someone else , we will have a change at CF . I don't know if Matthews will get another full year here . He needs to lock in post ASB or maybe he's already on the block. The elephant in the room is MLB pitching , but hopefully our gambles don't go as badly as they did this year . Imai could choose to come back , which is fun to think about . Since I think next year he really will be a great pitcher . He's gonna be awesome post ASB . Alright enough ranting . Longest story short , I see no reason why the 2027 Houston Astros can be a top 5 MLB team and have a top 10 farm system after the 2027 MLB draft .. and that can be the story of the 2026 Houston astros. And yordan mvp
You must not have read my reply. Like I said, it’s fair criticism to complain about Dana Brown not filling out the rotation and outfield this year. If you want to blame him for Espada, ok, but it’s entirely questionable how many wins or losses Espada is responsible for. You compare the Astros to the Dodgers as “teams that draft late” while failing to mention the vast difference in resources between those two organizations. You compare Brown to Luhnow while waving away Luhnow’s losses and failing to mention that Luhnow’s wins were built on guys that were acquired with resources (draft picks in the top 5 overall) that Brown hasn’t had. Thats all pretty silly. Your comparisons of past prospects to Neyens is anecdotal and lacks a lot of context as well. Prospect k rates have gone up in general since Carter and Dunn were in the minors. Like I said, blaming Brown for the shitty rotation and crummy outfield this season is entirely reasonable, and if you think he should be fired for that I wouldn’t argue against it. But blaming him for the lacking farm system requires ignoring a lot of context.
Great post The trades Dana has made haven't worked out either. Burrows this year, Sanchez last year. Even the Cam trade hasn't worked out as well as hoped for.
Luhnow made his money getting cheap Caribbean pitchers on the cheap, signing Yuli, drafting Pena, Hunter etc .. all outside the first round. He also had scouts mine the back fields for guys like Marwin, Yordan. What has Dana done the makes you think he's a great GM, or won't get bent over when he makes a deadline deal?
Any comparison between what the Dodgers are doing with their minor league system and the Astros based on both having late picks isn’t remotely fair. The amount of money that the Dodgers spend across the board dwarfs the Astros. They have more scouts, they pay their scouts 2-3X what the Astros do. Every year the Dodgers poach scouts and player development people from other teams by paying them so much. The Dodgers buy the best analytics experts, and have more of them than everyone. They even pay a completely separate groups not associated with the Dodgers to do their own separate research and experimentation. The Dodgers have better planes, better facilities, better food and dieticians because they have more money. They have better interns because they pay more and they have more interns. They have better coaches and more coaches because of money. They also are widely known for throwing money around the coyotes to influence the younger players Tim places like the DR and Cuba and Mexico to sign with the Dodgers. The Dodgers also never have to consider need when drafting because they have money to fill any holes in free agency. Expecting Brown to compete with that - without high draft picks isn’t reasonable. FWIW Brown has done well with international young bats. Fermin is 16-17 years old and is already 6’3” and has produced very well and will be someone talked about a lot by next year. Alvarez also looks very good. Anything can happen - both could get hurt or stop improving, but are the best international bats in the system since Yordan. FWIW in hindsight I agree with you on Cam in AAA.
Who did the Astros lose in the Kikuchi deal? The Burrows deal? The Sanchez deal? The Kikuchi deal was good. The Cam Smith deal was also very good. Paredes is good and cheap - Cam at worst is an above average CF and Wirsnieski will like contribute. Sanchez and Burrows have been zeros but we didn’t lose anything getting them. Blanco, Lambert, Sausa and King were all off the trash heap.
Owners are never scapegoats, they can not be fired. You can b**** about them, you can blame them to your fellow fans, but nobody can fire them.
You can say these things about any GM. If things break right everything will be sunshine and lolipos. What makes you think Dana's the guy to continue excellence? Name just one thing. Unlike you I believe that this run can continue with a great GM leading the way. The only two old guys are Altuve and Walker.. The GM just needs to hit on most trades particularly when it comes to pitching and he needs to hit on fa signings on the pitching in Japan, Korea etc....Dana has been very avg at this. You want to give the team it's best chance to win, go out and trade for an OF like Lee, even if you have to give up Matthews and Blubaugh. Then go out and trade for a guy like Detmers using Pecko, Mayer and Neyens and let's keep this thing going.
It's not a matter of who did we lose IMHO. It's a matter of hitting on trades without having to sell the farm like Luhnow did when he traded for JV/Greinke, or Click did when he traded for Diaz etc.... Dana did hit on Kikuchi but he was just a rental. I'm looking at trading for guys with control like JV/Brantley/Greinke. This is why I would give up Neyens in a trade for Detmers. He's got 2 1/2 yrs of control and has so much untapped potential. I see Detmers as a guy that can make a difference for the next 2 1/2 yrs instead of just being a rental. Detmers/Hunter/Lambert and if they get anything out of the hurt pitchers should be a solid rotation for awhile.
With all of these advantages how did Luhnow manage to pull off the Caribbean haul, get Yuli to dign, find Hunter/Pena in the 3rd rd etc.... Nobody said this is an easy job, but it can be done and it startis with signing/drafting and developing pitching. Crane needs to pay top dollars to the coyotes so that the international pipeline keeps pumping out prospects. That was the true genius of Luhnow IMHO. Has Crane stopped spending money on scouting like he used too? Not directed at you, but how long is the we lost draft picks excuse going to hold water? Never mind the fact that they got a couple of draft picks back because of the Cards email hacking scandal. Some posters forgot about that.
Kikuchi deal was good but it was a rental. Burrows deal was for prospects so, tbd. Burrows sucks and has been an active negative, like trading for the measles. Smith and Paredes was a good deal. I just don’t think in the aggregate Brown has been able to fill the holes we’ve developed in a meaningful way. Rotation and outfield are both trash. He’s had some victories but it’s not great success in the bigger picture. And “Cam is an above average CF” should wait until he’s played more than two innings there, no? His defense is right is plus, for sure.
I still have little confidence in Brown as the head of an MLB organization right now. I just haven't seen many big wins in that regard, although I acknowledge Crane has probably made him do his job with handicaps. Having said that, the farm looks significantly better than it did 15 months ago IMO. Guys that were viewed as our 5 prospects wouldn't even be in my top 10-15 right now, they were all extremely flawed prospects at the top and I felt excited about almost none of them. K machines, walk machines on the mound, and players with little actual proven success.
If the Dodgers are too well spent in international scouting then I suggest we spend more. It’s not a luxury tax issue so we should be able to compete, no? How much is the spending gap on the scouting and development side? Let’s take them out of the picture though for comparison purposes. What about the Brewers? They have a smaller market, less funding, less resources than the Astros. They’ve got six of the top 100, including the top prospect in the game. Not a single one of their guys was selected by them as a top pick. International signings and astute trades, just like the Dodgers. Maybe we should be looking at them as a team to emulate and poach talent from…
