Well if a fan looks at a player and think he's probably a backup, then clearly said player's ceilling is around a backup. Because fans in general always overestimate their own players. You can probably look back at your own post history to see what you thought of the past Rockets prospects vs. what they ended up becoming. Also there's no such thing as a high floor for draft picks unless you're LeBron or Wemby. Even lottery picks have floors of being out of the league. If a prospects floor is NBA backup, he's not making it to the 2nd round.
If he can become an adequate role player (so far I haven’t seen why not), that’s a win in my book. Yeah I agree with you that we can seem to draft a star to build around. But what does that have to do with Thornton? Did you expect we draft a franchise player with the 31st pick?
A lot of what I discuss about prospects is a good outcome as it isn't worth discussing median or bad outcomes. Very rarely does a team get an opportunity in the draft to base a pick on expected value as good outcomes in a draft typically drive winning. I wouldn't call "good outcomes" ceiling, but definitely better than median or expected. I think ceiling is often undersold (so many players end up better than "ceilings"), but perceived ceilings are often overvalued (e.g., don't rely solely on what if this guy develops skill). Bust percentage is just too high to bet on guys. My pre-NBA impression history is way, way too high on Green (thought his 3 point shoot would translate better), Garuba (liked the defense), Whitmore (I liked the rim pressure and 3 point shooting combination with athleticism). JSJ, probably too high. Defense has not been as good as I expected. 3 point shooting has not been as good as I expected. I was not expecting a star, but thought he would be a higher level starter. Sengun, Tari (my current opinion is higher than most though), and Amen too low I think I nailed TyTy. Nix...he was a guy I thought needed to be able to get his three point shot off very similar to Thornton(i.e., I thought a good chance at being nothing, but a shot at being a backup PG). Can say I was too high on him, as I was fine treating him like Garuba, Christopher, TyTy. Reed...this is odd in that I thought his ability to be offball would be better, his on ball has suprised me some, and defense has been more extreme than I expected. I'd put this in a TBD. Christopher was a guy I didn't develop a strong like for, but really didn't pay close enough attention on floor as I just didn't regard him well enough to develop much of an opinion. Granted, I was way too optimistic on picks 8-30 prior to the last 6 or 7 years. I said some stupid stuff when I was younger, and will still say some stupid stuff now and then. I take it that my experience has made more pessimistic on low guys. Though, based on my history, at least 3 guys lately have exceeded what I was hoping for, such that their ceiling was not what I was hoping for and definitely better than what I expected. In general, I expect anyone drafted after 20 to be a bust, deep bench, or not a great rotation player. I like Thornton for his ceiling or upside. The Rockets don't trade up for him if his ceiling was Aaron Holiday. I do think there is a good chance that the Rockets give Thornton a chance to win the Aaron Holiday role this year. I think my expectation is fair for Thornton. Likely bust, deep bench, or not a great rotation player long term. He's got upside to be a score-first guy of the Ayo, Coby quality. I would not say the ceiling is Ayo, though it is really unlikely he's better than Ayo.
Feeling Bruce is going to have an important role by ages 24 and 25. FVV and Smart will be gone. That leaves Anthony Edwards and Reed as our only guards. Bruce's 14 from the bench is outstanding
2 billion ppl will be watching France vs Spain but the rest of the world will tune in for Bruce Thicky Thick ThornTON
This. The Rockets have reasonable hopes that Thornton will eventually become a back up guard in the rotation. That is a good outcome for where he was picked. Is it amazing? No, but very few players become starters or starts in the part of the draft where Thornton was drafted and affordable back up guards are valuable. The going rate for a good reserve rotational guard is fairly high in free agency. I wish that the Rockets had kept the Nets pick and gotten Flemings to run the point - but that is water under the bridge and a separate situation than Thornton in round 2.
No, but I think it was mainly that Raptors game (6 for 17) that laid him low. Hey, at least he isn't a turnover machine.
This was another steady performance from Thornton. He greatly outclassed the 76ers' guards. Philon Jr. looked like a middle-schooler next to him. Again, for long stretches of this game, he was playing out of position as a floor spacer, letting Newton or someone else serve as the point guard. Nice to see him succeed. As a team, we looked organized, and we even converted on the break.
