He's certainly improving. My biggest issue is that its all based on OTJ training, with service time accumulation, and by the time he's finally "there"... and with the possibility of next season being in limbo and all the leaked negotiations are suggesting decreased overall arbitration years/earlier FA... there's a chance he'll be at the "he's about to make big money" category where everybody here loves to make a million trade scenarios to off-set (dating back to Correa's 3rd year in the big leagues, or Tucker's last 2-3 years). Which is why a long-term or even Yordan/Bregman-term extension is still attractive enough to pursue despite him still putting up less than stellar numbers. Its a risk, for sure... but the way he's improving, the Astros are probably in line to get 1-2 years of elite/superstar-level offensive performance based on current trajectory and the current arbitration set-up (and no lengthy work stoppage).
OPS June 12th - .669 July 12th - .669 Hopefully his future improvement reflects in basic stats. The potential is still there.
This is all good, but it shouldn't stop Dana from trading Cam for a young controllable SP1-2 like Detmers.
Astros have upgraded pitcher's careers before.... I'm just hesitant giving up on Cam in year 2. Quitting on Smith would equal a direct result from Dana's terrible offseason and the Astros inability to develop players they already had, see Arrighetti. If Cam is traded, fine... just hate losing him due to half a pitching staff failing.
I think it would be short sighted to trade Cam Smith. He was forced into the majors with barely any minor league experience.
I like how his control and the movement on his pitches, in addition to him being a LHP. His best baseball is ahead of him IMHO. But what do I know, I saw Cole Ragans in this same light last offseason and he's having TJ surgery.
If they could add an above avg corner OF and Cam can learn to play CF that would change the equation for me.
I am opposite of most here. I say extend Cam now before he "gets it". If he ends up being a trade chip in the future those extra controllable years will always bring back a higher yield.
I do agree with doing extensions on bit lower or earlier point but the $ value also has to mirror that. After praising Smith to heavens for 1,5 seasons no matter how stupid play he makes will he take early money extension with money that makes sense for Astros? To get out of this downward glide out of contention lower by the year we should sell some assets high for once and if we do exrensions do them low. There is no reason we should pay the absolute premium. We all want Yordan extended, "the smartest batter in MLB" as Rangers booth called him just now, butagain we are possibly doing it on high. Do it now and the price is 40-45m because Yordan says "look at Alonso and Schwarber deals 5x30m and Im much better" but when we have run him to the ground chasing playoffs and he is nursing something offseason bit team friendly deal might seem more enticing. Also to realise what mental effort it was to put MVP season under pressure everyday to carry the team comes clearer and he realises allthough he's insanely great these kinds of seasons don't happen often. Yes it's not our money and I have no problem giving him all of Crane's money but the 10-15m difference is away from being used elsewhere in the team cap or no cap. We have some heavy contracts but also are very lucky to not be tied to players like Bregman, Springer and Tucker until their retirement. All went downhill much faster than I could have imagined. Tucker will ofcourse have bounce back during his current deal but to have everything going for you in LA and produce like this is just crazy. We are talking how it effects who's behind Yordan and stuff. Tucker is just a bat, the LA lineup is so good so he gets pitched to as just a guy not the MVP vote getter Astros version and he can't do better than this and stumbling after balls in outfield like Mary's brother in "There's Something About Mary". Wacky. This trade deadline. Sell something. There will not be a better spot for loooooooong time after this. Even teams that in offseason think they are rebuilding/not competing might be in contention now as suprise and willing to pay too.
When I just doubted will Cam take what is right I mean Wetherholt just signed for 8y/113m with .755 OPS, 3.5 WAR and best defense on his position. Cam is good on D but still has lot to learn on D especially coming forward making right reads quickly. Lot of balls drop in front of him that he could get with his speed. Not the fastest to accelerate but still fast. We really don't know will the bat play in long run. Also he's in bunch of many other RF and is like 1 OOA better than Adolis Garcia . Carroll is pretty much twice the player Cam is on both side of the balls. So there is good and there is great. Extension should be something like 9y/50-70m max with low paying years in start, or otherwise let just take the control years. He might come to table again if he realises he ain't superstar yet. It would be horrible mistake to give him 100m with what he's shown so far and with the current culture and manager like Espada or same kind after Espada where even the young ones know they can do what they want. To get him to take that deal above he would need to know without a deal he's in minors if he sucks for long period. He kinda knows he won't be and prob.won't sign for that money.
I personally don't trade Cam. I think it's going to take way more than a SP or 2 to turn this season around. If you trade Cam, you are even worse in the OF, offensively, that you already are. I just don't think the team has it in them this season to go on the run they've needed to go on, at least as long as Espada is around (I haven't been on the Fire Espada train until recently).
Spoiler If Arrighetti was going to BOR, plus five other starters were going to hold BOR's beer, the Astros entered this season not making the playoffs. Offense has had Yordan, but no Correa. We'll see if the hideous differential holds true or the Astros surge. It only takes a couple 1-run losses to fall 5+ back.
I would not trade Cam either, I have seen an improvement lately, less ground balls and lifting the ball more. Possible 5-tool player. The power is there, most HRs are no doubters. Great defense, although still needs to improve reaction reading balls forward. We have not shown a solid pitching staff, even Brown has had its so-so outings lately. I do not think one good pitcher will take us to the end, unless one or two of the others become dependable. I am leaning to not letting go of our most promising players for the future. Short term rental, similar to Kikuchi, and make the best of it. Our young OF surplus will get more experience. Again, the 2027 season its up in the air. D. Brown does not have it easy on the deadline with his job on the line.
Depending on which OF you trade for, you might be better off Say you traded Spencer and Blubaugh for Lee and then traded Cam and Pecko for Deers, would you really be worse off? I'm for not trading Cam unless Dana can add a controllable stud SP1-2 type guy.
D. Brown’s job should not be on the line. He was handed a minor league system full of nothing, an aging line-up, and an owner that is not cheap, but also not interested in long-term deals or gambling on big ticket FA’s, unless they are his hand-picked heroes. If you fire Brown, who are you bringing in as his replacement? Whoever it might be, they will at least have the benefit of a full shelf in the lower levels of the minor leagues and no draft pick penalties over their head. If Brown was the one who insisted on Empanada and the one holding onto him, then maybe you have the slither of a case that he has failed. Brown also had no control over the 2nd most injuries in MLB history last year and his Ace being hurt for most of this year. Imai and Burrows were legitimate buy low shots that most anybody in his position would have considered given the spending constraints of the organization. If folks just have to have a scapegoat, it should be Crane.
Dana has just been ok in the draft, he's done well with the young international signings.Dana should be fired because he hired Espada who blewout both Hunter and Hader's shoulders and if they miss the playoffs again this will be the main reason why. This doesn't even take into account the misuse of Javier when he was hurt 2 yrs ago which caused his TJ issues. Is it just a coincidence that all of these pitchers blew out their arms/shoulders on Espada's watch. Remember Espada was Dana's handpicked guy. The fact that he missed on his trades and other pitching acquisitions besides Lambert and couldn't find a competent Wade level OF before the season started is why I would let Dana go. This team has been grossly mismanaged over the last 3 seasons. Could you do better, of course you could, bring back Stearns and Petula to run the org the way it used to be run. BTW, do the Stros really have an old team? C- Diaz, old? 1B- Walker old, yes 2B Altuve old yes SS Pena old no 3B Parades old no RF Cam old? very young CF Matthews old? very young LF Wade old, not young but still in what should be hus prime yrs. I could go through the pitching staff, but they aren't old either.
It's really easy to say the lower levels have a "full shelf" since those guys are so far away from the bigs. But the 2nd best prospect is a guy striking out 40+% of the time at A ball, which is not a recipe for big league success. Brown hasn't rebuilt the farm system. He hasn't developed the guys who were already there. He hasn't had success in free agency, and hasn't wowed me in trades. He hasn't locked up our young talent to long term deals. The big league rotation may be the worst in the major leagues. The team has a worse record every year he's in charge. I keep hearing these excuses about how terrible Crane is as an owner and how Brown's hands are tied, but somehow two different GMs had success under his ownership and won titles.
