2026 Astros Minor League Thread

How the previous drafts are looking heading into the 2026 draft this weekend:

Pre 2021:
2012 (2): McCullers, Correa; this was a monster draft but all that's left are shadows
2017 (2): Meyers (AAA), Bielak (AAA); the Astros had 3 2nd round picks in this draft and came away with nothing but McCormick and Meyers
2018 (3): Pena, Salazar (AAA), France (AAA); Pena alone made this a good draft but otherwise it was weak
2019 (1): Brown; Brown alone made this a good draft but otherwise pretty weak
2020 (2): Whitcomb (AAA), Santos (AA); they came into this draft with almost no resources and got nothing out of it, although there's still a chance Santos becomes a decent middle reliever

2021 (5):
MLB (1): Arrighetti (6)
AAA (2): Loperfido (7), Gordon (8)
AA (2): Whitaker (3), Swanson (16)
Traded (2): McDermott (4), Wagner (18)
Summary: Considering they didn't have a 1st or 2nd rd pick, this is shaping up to be a nice draft carried by Arrighetti with Loperfido and Whitaker still having some upside to be solid contributors.

2022 (12):
MLB (2): Blubaugh (7), Dezenzo (12)
AAA (5): Knorr (3), Price (6), Cole (10), Sacco (14), Mancini (15)
AA (2): Dombroski (4), Gillis (9)
High A (3): Taylor (2), DeVos (5), Garcia (19)
Traded (3): Gilbert (1), Melton (2), Clifford (11)
Summary: Unlikely to produce any true difference makers but this draft is offering some solid depth especially on the pitching side. It's likely to produce 9-10 guys who reached the majors.

2023 (14):
MLB (1): Matthews (1)
AAA (3): Pecko (6), Guillemette (15), Ferreras (20)
AA (6): Tredwell (2), Williams (9), Hicks (13), Nezuh (14), Bush (16), True (18)
High A (2): Ochoa (11), Langford (17)
A: Dixon (7), Huezo (12)
Traded: Bloss (3), Jaworsky (5)
Summary: There's still a lot of upside in this draft so a wide range of how it could be graded in the end. Matthews, Pecko, Tredwell, Nezuh, Bush, Ochoa, and Huezo all still have some chance of being difference-making big leaguers.

2024 (15):
AA (6): Janek, Hertzler, Sullivan, David, Schiavone, Mayer
High A (3): Smith, Powell, Howard
A (4): Forcucci, Verdugo, Mathieson, Burleson
FCL (2): Boettcher, Wagner
Traded: Palmer
Summary: Looking like a pretty weak draft, with Janek and Forcucci both presently on a bust path. Pitching development is rarely linear so there's still a lot of potential there; Mayer or Hertzler could end up carrying the class. Powell, Sullivan, and Schiavone are strikeout prone power hitters who could become impact players.

2025 (18):
High A (6): Frey, Walker, Oakes, Daudet, Thomas, Call
A (9): Neyens, Monistere, Potter, Pentecost, Smith, Wakefield, Newman, Saunier, Hebert
FCL (3): Mitchell, Farley, Arroyos
Summary: Too early to tell. The early returns on Neyens are very positive. Potter is a very high upside pitching prospect.

 

So this really isn't about missing high draft picks for a couple of yrs. They even recouped some of those draft picks in the Cards email hacking crime.

Look at where the Stros players came from on todays team. Only Cam and Brice are 1st rd picks.

Meanwhile Hunter/Pena were 3rd rd picks. Parades was a ametuer FA, Walker was a lower pick.

Avarez was from Cuba, Meyers was a low rd pick, Altuve int FA.

 

What really stands out to me is the amount of draft picks that the Astros have lost the last 5-6 years - and that they should be an organization that is trading for competitive balance picks when they can and avoiding losing 1-2 rounders by signing players that aren't special.

 

There is no way to know for sure - but the Astros lost a number of first and second round picks the last 5 years--- and I am talking about a handful, and there is a very good chance they lost a few starting level players as a result. It isn't just losing the pick, it is losing the pool money to target guys later in the draft to skip college and go pro.

From an international standpoint - their offensive player production has been garbage since before Luhnow. The only thing that has kept them afloat was the pitching development of mid tier arms that are middle of the rotation types in a few years. In recent seasons it appear to be improving some under Brown on the offensive side, but those guys are at least a couple of years away.

 

I think statistically the odds are that between all the lost picks, they missed one above average everyday major leaguer and 2-3 complementary/fringe players. That's not huge but it could be the difference in the division in a year like this for a team like the Astros currently have.

I am very bullish on the lower levels; these are probably the most talented complex league rosters I've ever seen in the Astros system in total. Fayetteville's roster is very talented and deep, it just has a lot of young guys, so the W/L and slash lines don't properly reflect it. But their High A pitching staff is trash; that will be fixed by the end of the year through promotions and the draft. There are also likely no impact position players in AA or AAA and it will get worse as that is likely where they will draw from to make trades. But because they don't have any major pending free agents until 2028 outside of Pena/Paredes, they can weather that storm until the lower levels start bubbling up in 2029.

But this draft is absolutely huge for them.

 

Considering we haven't produced one above average, or even average, MLB player with all the top 100 picks we have had, I wouldn't agree that it's statistically likely we missed a good player.

Obviously it's still too early to write the epitaph on the the last few drafts, but at this point I wouldn't be willing to bet much money on any of them except Neyens and he's still got a lot of ground left to prove.

 

2 things

#1 its the pool money , even if the top pick didnt pan out , the increase in money could have allowed us to sign better players later in the draft that we skipped . ( but this is theoretical )

#2 Even if we drafted players that ultimately dont succeed , they would still have value as prospects and could be traded. Ie Jake bloss, among many others

 

That’s where guys like Raining 3’s are missing the point with Brown. The Tucker trade looks to be a big win for me (I think Cam will be a star). He has been superb with the bullpen and Lambert looks to be a big win. Imai is to be determined and all it did was cost money. Paredes is out-playing Tucker for what 270m less? He’s being asked to make Chicken Salad out of Chicken Sh*t on the trade market. The minor league was bare when he came on board. Every GM has misses and with the constraints teams like the Astros have, he can’t play with the big boys in FA. He has to take shots at middlin guys hoping to find a gem. Looks like he may have missed with Burrows, but re-enforcements are on the way. It would be foolish to trade Pena before the off-season, unless someone blows us away.

 

It’s a really hard thing to guess because there is so much variance in the real outcomes. But Houston lost 2 first rounders and 4 2nd rounders from 2020-2025. I am too lazy to look it up but my guess is that is around $9M in total draft bonus pool money they lost; that’s more than 8 teams have in their entire pool this year and roughly the equivalent of what the #2 overall pick has gotten over those years. I think the average/median outcome for $8M in bonus pool money over 2020-2025 would come out to one above average regular and 2-3 complementary players. Of course you can argue the front office would have done far better or worse with those dollars/picks, and there’s reasonable evidence for both.

 

I put Fraide on my updated top 30 last week, he has good stuff high ceiling and is getting results.

 

Astros having tremendous success with UDFA and org castoffs this season. Spence, Austin, Brutcher, Holy, Moss, Sisneros, Nigh, Marcus Brown, Arturo Flores all playing well.

 

Didn't they hit on Hunter and Pena in the draft?

 

Some GM's are better at this than others. Trades helped build this dynasty along with signing CFM. Cole/Greinke/Brantley/Alvarez/JV etc....

FA signings CFM/Yuli etc....

 

Trading Hader for Fiers and Gomez...giving away JD Martinez, Laureano and Teo Hernandez, stuff like that, etc...

 

Overall the Stros have done a great job making trades

 

You win some, you lose some.