This is entirely my point in questioning the BUY position. Why leverage the future for more mediocrity in the present? Is settling for a base hit going to push them over the top? I don't think so. The capital doesn't exist to swing for the fences and bring in a game changer. I do understand why one could question the SELL position, though, particularly because prospects rarely pan out. You're absolutely correct here. Whichever team is the hottest going into OCT/NOV ball has a great shot vs. a team that's scuttling despite holding the top rank. See 2019 Nationals and 2023 Rangers for two examples. I will say that if Crane and Co. are going to pivot and really push to sign these guys, then you absolutely hold on to them. If they're goners then why not maximize what you can get for them? In a different era the Astros held on to their stars for too long (Berkman, Pence, etc.) and it arguably resulted in several seasons of bad teams. Again, I'm not necessarily pushing to sell all here at the deadline, but it should be considered if the right return is offered. I'll leave it to Dana or to those of you who can actually evaluate talent to decide what that package should be. All I can go on is what the stats say and what my eyes see. Neither show me a World Series competitor.
Most accurate post of what Astros 2026 is. We seem to always be extending and trading in high and selling and trading out low. Maybe with the exception of fleecing Cubs on Tucker. There might even be bigger chance to get better at deadline by "selling" couple of big names (who not gonna extend) for huge hauls than by traditional buying moves getting household names and adding salary.
Depending on the outcome of the CBA negotiations, there is a world where both are kept. Obviously the chances of that outcome with the CBA is low IMO but still...
Give some examples of this. You make a run when you've got a shot at the playoffs and you have the ability to add pieces that makes you a true contender, particularly when you've been one of the best teams record wise since Hunter/Hader got healthy and you can blame their lack of health directly on poor usage by Espada.
I'm never above trading anyone. But I would hate for it to get to the point where it becomes the standard for fear of not being able to re-sign system grown talent. Which I think is the prevailing opinion of most on this board.
It’s all shades of grey. There is very little difference one way or the other between doing nothing and adding a couple of marginal players like Moniak. I understand the all in mentality because Altuve is in his twilight, Crane is in his 70s, and Yordan is only under control 2 more years. I don’t want to see them trade any prospects from their lower levels, but I won’t have a problem if they gut AA/AAA to maximize the big league roster. You don’t sell when you’re <3 games out of the division. MLB playoffs are proven to reward marginal teams that get in.
And we do have recent benefit of marginal teams that buy at the deadline, get hot, and go all the way... and they wouldn't have seen the same result without such moves (2021 Braves, 2019 Nats). On the flip-side, there are sellers every year that seem to be selling again the following year... just in time to sell again in 3-5 years time where the acquisitions of the sale are now in position to be sold. Some teams are just going to be stuck in perpetuity until they stumble upon the right combination of young guys with over-achieving results, and then you're ready to have a 1-3 year window if you're a small market team (2015 Royals, this year's White Sox).
Do we really trust the Astros making deadline trades? Outside of Kukuchi, Astros haven't done much since Verlander, the first Verlander. Hell, the Tucker trade is just now evening out -- Paredes has never hit like Tucker, Cam hasn't played well enough, and Wesneski hasn't been available. Tucker's poor play now could be apathy after the big contract, so Astros dodged one there if so. Perfect world.... Imai finds consistency, plus Trammell and Wade continue to perform with sprinkling contributions from the other OFs.
Imai and Smith start consistently performing their best and all of a sudden Houston’s roster looks like a legitimate WS contender. SS Pena DH Alvarez 3B Paredes RF Smith 1B Walker 2B Altuve LF Wade C Diaz CF Trammell Bench: Allen, Vasquez, Dezenzo, Matthews SP: Brown, Imai, Lambert, Arrighetti RP: Hader, King, Blubaugh, Okert, Abreu, De Los Santos, Teng, Javier, Blanco
Here's the WAR stat for every closers in the HoF (not counting Eckersley, who earned by far most of his WAR value as a starter): Rivera 56.3 Wilhelm 46.8 Gossage 41.1 Smith 28.9 Hoffman 28 Wagner 27.7 Fingers 25.6 Sutter 24 Looking at some contemporaries: Chapman 24.7 Jansen 23.9 Kimbrel 22.7 Hader 15.8 Lots of guys in the mid-20s WAR who didn't get in: KRod, Nathan, Papelbon, Franco, etc. The guys who are in stayed healthy and productive into their late 30s. Hader has missed significant portions of last year and this one. Could he put up 10 more WAR in the last 5-6 productive years of his career? It's possible but I'm pessimistic. He's averaged 1.6 WAR/season to date. Some postseason success would go a long way to his resume, too. Chapman, Kimbrel, and Jansen have all won rings. Hader hasn't made the WS yet.
You should also exclude these guys because the role of closer was a completely different animal when they played.
