Whats your regular season prediction for next year? (POLL)

These people have no idea what development means. Development comes in many forms. They get development from our development staff. They also get it through their own personalized private trainers outside the org but most important they get development frlm vets like Fred and Brooks when he was here. Those are the technical player insights. That’s why people are wrong when they kept saying playing Reed Sheppard would develop him. Did playing KPJ and Wood develop them? It takes a lot to develop a player including the player’s own receptiveness to training and also how well they pick it up.

 

Pretty much I agree with all of this. I don't really blame Stone for it. The two main guys that we could've potentially gotten were Cade or Wemby, the lottery balls just didn't fall our way. We took the guys who were available and hope they were stars, and they weren't. I think it just is what it is, it's not like Stone could've drafted any differently. I don't see a star that we passed on, so I can't really fault him for that. Like you said though, I'm fine rolling the dice for old guys. I liked the Durant trade.

 

Maybe I was younger and dumber or more naive but I considered those teams contenders. Every year there are a handful of contenders, teams that could win it all, and I had us in that group in the Yao/TMac era. I also had us in that group for pretty much all of the Harden era. Sure we were never the favorites but we aren't even in the conversation now. Do you still consider this team a dark horse? Maybe that's the difference here and why you think my posts are so crazy. I don't have us in that category at all.

 

I agree. That’s how the chips fell. I thought he should have picked Scottie Barnes but understand why he went with JG. The only draft i think he fumbled was the 2024 draft. Boggles my mind till this day why he picked Sheppard

 

They were trying to trade out of that draft, but there were no takers. Evidently, everyone in the NBA new about the 26 draft, but Stone.

 

Was he supposed to predict 7 years into the future when he made that deal with OKC? Also what pick would they get anyway? Surely nothing good.

 

No, but he had plenty of time between that deal and the 26 draft to try and correct it. Maybe not trading for the Phx picks? Stone seems to be always a bit late to pull the trigger on deals. Your defense of this FO is mind boggling for such a smart basketball guy.

 

Wins come easily in the regular season, iso or no iso, but that has to change for a successful postseason. The only reason for the regular season at this his point should be to rebuild an offensive connection and mindset. Priority one.

 

I consider the Rockets in the tier just below OKC and SAS in the West. Who else comes next thats significantly better than the Rockets? If you wanna argue Denver is better even if they made no moves, ok fine. After OKC, SAS and Denver who else? Rox are at worst 4th team in the West and on track for yet another 50 win season. CF posters look down on this but the reality is during the Morey era this was the above average result, in fact its better now cuz our core are still in their early 20s whereas when the Yao Mac and Harden teams popped off they were old already, 30s or in their late 20s.

YaoMac era was worse. You had Lakers, Suns, Spurs even Utah Jazz better than the Rockets with Boozer, AK and Deron Williams. Portland had LMA and Brandon Roy. Rockets seemed always 7/8th best. At least to me anyway, thats why they always lost in the first round. I think the highest seed we ever got was 4rth but still lost in the first round.

In the Harden era they were always losing to GSW with or without KD. Yes you had Harden who was an mvp player but the supporting cast wasn't there and the coach was MDA who is like the offensive equivalent of Udoka, no actual coaching or Xs and Os just give the ball to Harden and get out the way. Before that they had Mchale who was prob the most clueless coach Rockets ever had.

The only two times I remember Rockets being considered dark horses was one year they had Dwight and lost to GSW and the other was 2018 when they also lost to GSW. Other than those years I dont recall Rockets being considered contenders at all. Having just 1 yr under Mchale and 1 yr under MDA of serious contention and people are now crashing out this early into the Udoka era. Im pretty sure we lost in the first round under Harden more than 2 times bro.

While I know the Rockets record is disappointing so far, the reality is they a bunch of 23 yr olds so losing in the first round is expected. We brought in vets but they were all injured so again losing in the first round was expected. This year should be different.

 

We can only keep the better of our pick or Brooklyn's, we can't keep both. So for instance if they give us the #4 and we give them the #5, we only move up one spot and our tanking simply boosted the value of our pick for Brooklyn's benefit. Ideally, they give us the #1 and give them #30.

If we want two lotto picks Phoenix must be in the lottery. There is no other way. There are only six guaranteed playoff seeds in the West and us taking one of them would make it that much harder for Phoenix. With last year's standings under the current lottery rules we would have had two lotto picks. Regardless of how you feel about this year's talent class, two lotto picks are better than one.

If you think KD has tremendous value right now and will have no value next summer, then yes we should trade him immediately. If you think he retains most of his trade value over one season then it is much better to wait.

 

thanks for explaining that. I still think it’s more remote of a chance that we boost PHX into the playoffs and ends up having a significant impact on our lotto odds relative to the benefit of trading a healthy KD coming off another all-NBA yr. Teams like Detroit and Minny have to be feeling the pressure of the contenders arms race. Even Boston may feel like they can contend if they add KD. If Cleveland loses out on Lebron they might want to add KD. We should be able to get at least a couple future 1st round picks (maybe also a player that can help keep us competitive) and I think you take that. I want to continue stuffing the coffers to potentially net us a franchise guy through the draft or a big trade. The more 1st round picks we have, the better the chance of getting a franchise guy through one of those pathways.

 

This is the reasonable take for anyone that is not drinking the Kool-aid of the Rockets being competitive with this roster next year. It makes no sense to me that any one watching last year’s team will be satisfied with a 50 something win regular season only to be tossed in the first round. Adding Marcus Smart and Bogi as the off-season moves and pretending we have a chance is insulting to the fan base. I don’t think we will get more than one frp and filler, but it would be still worth it.

 

I don’t defend anyone. But if there’s a lack of information i won’t go criticizing and demonizing someone. We don’t know what was discussed in deals and all we have to go by is limited reporting from news sources. It’s not easy to execute trades and expect that we get the 26 picks. I have gone on record to say I didn’t like the Durant deal along with not having any winning vets prior to Fred. But most of the deals have been solid in my opinion with flexibility and are team friendly.

 

Tankathon has updated lottery odds based on the new rules. Phoenix being in the lotto at all would be great value. Even with their surprising improvement last season the average value of their pick would have been #9 under the new rules. If they made the playoffs (1-6 seed) it would be guaranteed to be #19 or later which is a huge drop off.

If things stay exactly the same next season, Phoenix finishing 7th with one play in loss, we would get a 30% chance at a top 5 pick from them. It is extremely important that Phoenix stays out of the top six in the West. You can look at the odds and judge for yourself the impact of us being in the lotto rather than Phoenix, knowing there is a good chance we're sending our pick to Brooklyn.

2027 NBA Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

 

Top 3 in the West …. Because of stone’s stellar moves…