Albert Fermín's first month as a pro is in the books. He went 3-3 with a double, an RBI single, a walk, and two runs scored today. .391/.529/.609, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 18 BB, 15 K, 11 SB (0 CS)
Kevin Alvarez had two doubles and four RBI for Fayetteville. The first one drove in one run, and the other cleared the bases. He was responsible for all of the Woodpeckers' offensive production tonight.
Joseph Sullivan drove in three for Corpus Christi in their 8-3 win in Northwest Arkansas. One came on a single and he drove in the other two with a double. Sullivan only hit one home run in June, but he turned in a solid .280/.400/.400 line this month, a huge turnaround from a .196/.237/.402 May where he drew just 4 walks while striking out 33 times. Will Bush hit a three-run homer (7) and added an RBI single later on. Bush did have that IL stint from the end of May that stretched into mid-June. His three homers this month are a nice sign; his only extra-base hit in May was a double.
Steady risers: Astros prospects with 2 consecutive months of improved ops: Collin Price Garret Guillemette Drew Brutcher Zach Daudet Alejandro Nunez Justin Thomas Jr. Carlos Cauro Arturo Flores Yosweld Vazquez German Ramirez Breakout radar: Prospects with large ops improvement from May to June: Zach Dezenzo Pascanel Ferreras Lucas Spence Will Bush Joseph Sullivan Tyler Whitaker Cesar Hernandez Xavier Neyens Caden Powell didn’t make this list but he has had 2 really good months and might be in the mix to move up to AA soon.
Xavier Neyens’ 13th home run: Jagger Beck turned in five shutout frames; he allowed three hits, walked four, and struck out five.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/introducing-an-updated-method-for-prospect-valuation/ Interesting article on fangraphs about prospect valuation. I like how they highlight the difference in $/war between scrubs and stars. Might be a good reference as we get into the trade deadline. All of the trade value calculator sites I’ve seen are pure garbage.
Baseball America: Astros Midseason Top 30 Prospects Spoiler 1. Xavier Neyens 2. Kevin Alvarez 3. Bryce Mayer 4. Ethan Pecko 5. Lucas Spence 6. Albert Fermín 7. Joseph Sullivan 8. Jason Schiavone 9. Ethan Frey 10. Cole Hertzler 11. Juan Fraide (biggest riser) 12. Will Bush 13. James Hicks 14. Walker Janek 15. Jackson Nezuh 16. Miguel Ullola 17. Anthony Huezo 18. Nick Potter 19. Brandon McPherson 20. Zach Cole 21. Ryan Forcucci 22. Parker Smith 23. Nick Monistere 24. Max Holy 25. Gabel Pentecost 26. Randy Arias 27. Alimber Santa 28. Hudson Leach 29. Jase Mitchell 30. Anthony Millán
Yensi De La Cruz is currently 2-3 with an RBI triple for the DSL Blue team. He has 5 triples this season; 10 of his 16 hits have gone for extra bases (3 doubles, 5 triples, 2 home runs). He’s also drawn 24 walks while striking out just 9 times through 80 plate appearances. If I had anything to do with the Astros’ player development, I’d send Yensi straight to Fayetteville if we have baseball in 2027. Yes, yes, 300 DSL plate appearances mean almost nothing, but demonstrating mastery of a level is something, and he’s done just that.
They clearly rely more on scouting/industry notes than stat models. Jagger Beck outside the top 30 seems kinda crazy to me. MLB Pipeline's coverage has gotten tons better over the last 5 years while BA has fallen off. Fangraphs coverage of the Astros has been down the last 2 years after the main guys pawned it off on one of their amateur writers.
I know DSL #'s are supposed to be tossed out, and generally everything points to that. But I feel like when you get into a 20+ year sample of hundreds of players, and only a select few guys do something and an outsized portion of them go on to be successful, it has to mean something. The track record of guys who post near-single digit k rates, double digit bb rates, and show even a modicum of power, even in the DSL, is really strong. For >10%bb, >.130 ISO, <14%k, and age <20, >50pa, over the last 20 years: 2016 Yordan (borderline HOF) 2009 Jose Altuve (HOF) 2025 Kevin Alvarez (Top 100 prospect) 2026 Yensi De La Cruz 2026 Randy Arias 2022 Kedaur Trujillo (currently getting sporadic playing time in High A) 2016 Ramiro Rodriguez (topped out at AA) 2008 Luis Alvarez (topped out at AA; did it when he was repeating the level) De La Cruz is also already 19, so skipping the FCL for his age 20 season makes sense.
