That's a very big assumption (and I was a DFS apologist up until the end of the season). He didn't even look like he belonged in the NBA anymore.
In his 12 seasons, Smart has played on a losing team 2 times. One was his rookie year and the other when he got traded mid-season to Memphis.
What happend with DFS is so bizzare I cant help but hope it was just a fluke. Dude shot 38% the last 5 yrs even when he played with injury he gets his ankle fixed suddenly he is now a 3 ppg scorer who cant shoot lol.
Im not a DFS apologist, but there were many times, I saw him open and he didnt get a pass. Now when he did shoot he wasn't making a lot, but he was one of the only players I thought that got froze out of some plays.
He was making like 18% man he didnt deserve to be on the floor and prob cost us a couple of games. However now after a year and offseason of recovery hopefully he is back to his former self.
Yeah I agree, Im not advocating for him. Im just hoping if we do keep him, that he gets back to his old self.
One main positive spin, Smart playing for Ime Udoka was actual Defensive Player of the Year. Not just good but elite defense. Technically the best. Think of it like a defensive version of James Harden reuniting with Mike D'Antoni. Smart might not fit a main need. And doesn't offer visually pleasing play. But he fits the philosophy. So if it's ONE coach and team to maximize Smart, at least on 1 end (on a cheap deal), it's in Houston.
I typically like Queta, but not as much as models. I wasn't surprised he was high on the list even though unfamiliar with this specific model, but the magnitude surprises me even knowing stat models are really pro-Queta. I expected Reeves to be closer to average. Eason and Smart deals being shown as a positive should not surprise anyone. I think the Eason rating probably is a little overly optimistic on injury risk (i.e, I'd have guessed magntiude wasn't quite as positive). My main complaint with the Smart deal was that when I saw it, I knew the Rockets were going to pay draft capital to get off the DFS deal. From this model, the Rockets effectively spent $13.8M worth of draft capital to get Smart such that getting Smart would still be postiive. I'm just not as positive on Smart as the model. The Gillespie signing hurt. Still doubt the Suns make the playoffs, but that deal gives them some value cheap that they should not have been able to do. I was not expecting them to be able to get him, Williams, and Goodwin so cheaply.
The model obviously doesn’t take injury risk into account, Marcus 61, 20, 34, 62 last 4 seasons, but, of course, neither does Stone.
I'm sure it does, but Smart's contract is so cheap that it doesn't really matter. We're basically paying him a couple million more than a vet minimum. He'll have virtually no impact on our cap. This isn't like DFS, who took up almost 10% of our cap, meaning his DNPs really hurt us.
When Smart played 20 and 34 games, he was still worth about $5M in salary. He was worth about $25 in his healthier years. So assuming he's about the same go forward, $30M in value minus $13M would be about $17M surplus value (i'd have this a little lower), but no injury risk taken into account at all would be $37M at 60 game seasons. Some injury risk is obviously taken into account. I'd take more out, but assuming none is taken out is likely not correct, as an injury-free Smart is incredibly valuable. The short version, if he's out most of the year, likely a small overpay capped at an overpay of his full salary. If he plays 60+ games in a season, likely hugely valuable with surplus greater than double his full salary.
Hey, you have to look at the big picture. 82 games x 4 = 328 regular season games. Smart played 177 games. 177 divided by 328 Smart played in 54% of games. Doesn't that seem like Rocket material to you?* * The kind of rocket that crashes and explodes on the launch pad.
