The Rockets expect and should make the playoffs. I expect the Rockets to rack up a lot of wins in the regular season if they are healthy. I see some people automatically having the Rockets as third in the West -- I think they could end up as the 3 seed, but they I think Minnesota is likely ahead of them and the Lakers and Denver could surprise as well. The Rockets are not willing to completely sell out for the present, which I think is smart --- Giannis, Brown, Leonard -- none of them will put the Rockets over OKC or SA. However - it is pretty clear that there is some pressure to improve now based on the moves made. Marcus Smart was signed at a good price - and he will help them win games next year in the regular season and the playoffs as well. He can bring the ball up, he is fearless and experienced at the end of games and he also gives depth. The reason I am not a bigger fan of it is that it will mean less minutes for Reed Sheppard, and long term the Rockets need to figure out what he is. The Rockets spent a high lottery pick on him and claim that they believe he will be very good, and if that is the case - he needs to play. The Rockets should have a good and competitive team this season. I don't think it is a guarantee they are better because it isn't likely KD plays as many games - but I think Amen and hopefully Reed will improve some. I am deflated to the extent that this organization isn't elite - but this group will play hard and be better than most. I compare them to the Grizzlies Grit and Grind group.
Don't think there are many if any teams with cap space to offer him much money. Hopefully we can get him back on a good deal now.
It's also the years and PO. I like Grimes but there's a reason why he's bounced around. Stone's MO isn't signing those lower tier role players to long, guaranteed contracts.
I think it's more of a reasonable deal than a really great deal, but agree that it's a positive comp for Tari. Hopefully we can get there with him!!
Good deal or bad deal we kinda need to match it anyway. I just want them to get it done already cause there's a lot more value on the board.
They got rid of him because they got tremendous value for someone that was basically a throw in for them in an earlier trade -- and they don't want to pay him when they are likely 2-4 years away from really being at their peak. There is certainly an injury risk - he basically missed all of last season and is a massive man. It is very possible this blows up in the Lakers face if he is hurt. However - when you have the human turnstile running your offense, you must have a real anchor and Kessler is capable of that.
I am sort of hoping Smart is more of that other guard on the court than replacing Reed for this reason. He's very versatile in that way where he can play with FVV or Reed but yeah it would suck if he starts taking minutes off from Reed since long term this has 0 benefit for the team. But I do agree his experience and intelligence should add a lot to the team. My main concern is we do not have sturdy vets. FVV coming off a major injury, Adams is usually hurt, KD is getting older... If the Rockets are going to do anything serious this season its so dependent on the vets simply because so much money is tied into them but yeah, they should be a good competitive team and as the Knicks show, anything can happen, not like many had them winning a championship with that roster. I do think they are behind Minny for now for sure. Lamelo is a baller and if he plays he makes them monumentally better and swapping him for Randle is a straight up win for them. They lose Naz Reid but he's very replaceable. Denver has kind of stagnated at this point, to be fair, same for us, but I don't think Minny/OKC/Spurs fear any other team outside of each other. I really think the only way the Rockets become a contender is if Amen or Reed take a large step. It's possible it comes from Sengun or Jabari but I think we've seen basically what they are at this point. It's not impossible of course, some players just blossom later, but I don't see the avenue for them...maybe Jabari if he improves his shooting %s more, i guess that's possible but eh...
As for the Grimes contract -- it is about what I expected honestly. The value comes down to what you think of Grimes -- is he a starting guard or just a rotation piece. Grimes always defends and can guard three spots on the floor at a high level -- there is a lot of value in that. Offensively, a year ago he looked like he was on his way to being a starter and one of the best two way guards in the league. His three had improved and was falling, he was productive on increased usage and was handling the ball well. This last season his role was scaled back and his three-point shot took a step back. In the past I have wanted the Rockets to target Grimes - I wanted them to draft him.... but he isn't a guarantee. It is being criticized by fans, but Grimes is a good fit for the Lakers because he is willing to do the dirty work and defend at a nigh level when Doncic and Reeves either are not capable or willing to do it. The Lakers will need someone else on the floor with those guys that will attempt to defend and Grimes also should benefit from Doncic and Reeves on the offensive end.
Mostly agree. Before adding Smart, I expected FVV, Reed, and Amen to split the guard minutes. I expected Reed and FVV would play a lot together. With Smart, I expect Reed and Smart (or Reed and Amen) to play a lot together. I was hoping for a lot of FVV and Reed as I thought it gave the Rockets the best odds of seeing what Reed could do with 3 other shooters without being a complete sieve on defense. I don't think this affects Reed's minutes too much as long as Reed plays well. On KD, I think the hope is that he helps the Rockets against the better teams. In the regular season, I think the Rockets will be fine in most games with or without him.
Regular season win total is going to come down to injuries. Playoffs will be a first round exit, unless they sucker punch somebody at the deadline. There is a huge amount of risk with a rotation that contains; 38 year old KD, 33 year old FVV coming off a major injury, 32/33 year old oft-injured Marcus Smart, 33 year old oft-injured Stephen Adams, 33/34 DFS coming off major injury. I’m ok with Bogi at vet min, but if he is getting regular rotation minutes we are in trouble. Games played last 5 years for Marcus Smart: 20,19,15,34,62. I think they are going to kick this can down the road for years.
Even if he get hurt, somehow the Lakers will pull something out of their hat the following year. The league will see to it.
And the Rockets were the ~15th-16th best team in the playoffs last season (i.e., "when teams are actually trying and game planning"), and something like the ~13th-14th best the year before. I don't think it's particularly controversial to say that we are a team whose level is overstated by regular season effort-based wins, and who has never looked like one of the ten best teams in the league when the games actualy matter. Rebounding and try-hard defense fades as an advantage in max effort environments, and we are a below average NBA team in the other phases. Current teams that would be favored in a healthy playoff series vs. the Rockets: OKC, SAS, DEN, MIN, LAL, GSW, NYK, BOS, TOR, CLE, DET, MIA, PHI (probably), ORL (probably)
It wasn't just a "very bad series" - it was a whole aesthetically ugly & miserable season - we noted this at the time (followed by months of illustration of how far away from much better younger teams like OKC SAS and even MN the Rockets are.) Basically the whole concept of the Rockets having a useful "core" got exposed. They have a bunch of role players that don't fit well with each other and 38 yo Durant. That's not a core than can do anything other than scrap to stay out of the play in. And I can't state this enough - they were unfun to watch, even compared to the prior year. I guess you could be right, the Rockets could be laying in wait to launch a big move. Other teams (better teams) are not obviously. So, as a consequence people are going to complain they're getting left in the dust and, at least as of now, it's true!
Most betting odds have the Rockets at 6th and that's before today. Few want to admit it but this team is a few "expected to be out 6-8 weeks" on a 38 year old from being in the lottery mix
This team is certainly capable of cratering because they are dependent on older players with injury issues and this team lacks creators. I feel pretty confident that SA/OKC/MIN are above the Rockets. The Lakers are being laughed at right now, but I think that they will actually be better this season because they have added defenders that can play big minutes and offset the Luka/Reeves Special Olympics on the defensive side of the court. The Warriors are incomplete at this point and if they add LeBron and someone else - they could be ahead of the Rockets as well. The Mavs also will be better because Flag should have just completed his freshman year in college and instead won ROY and looks like he is ready to make a sizable jump this season. The West is still stacked and 2-3 wins can be the difference between a 2 seed and a 6 seed.
It isn't controversial to say the Rockets are better suited for the regular season than the playoffs. Rockets were still the best offensive rebounding team in the playoffs, and didn't drop off by that much. The Rockets were still a top playoff defense. Those advantages were still mostly there. The Rockets lost because they were down to 5 players in most games and didn't have anyone able to run the offense on a team that was offensively handicapped to start. On your favored list, I don't think the Rockets lose to all those teams.
I'm not convinced Min will be above the Rockets. They are a very thin team, and Ball has extensive injury history. Not to mention who knows how the Ball/Ant connection will workout. I could see them ending up at the top of the conference, and I could see them ending up as a play-in team.
The Rockets lost because we were a worse team than the Lakers, full stop. Healthy vs. healthy the Lakers would have been a -300 or more favorite in the series, as would the other top 5 teams in the West vs us (at least). They didn't have their best player(s), we didn't have our best player, true... and we still got embarrassed. We got embarrassed the previous year as a #2 seed. We got embarrassed in 4th quarters all season, when teams bore down and our try-hard ball faded in effectiveness. I think there is a homer-ish vein of thinking on this board that is pretty out of alignment with reality. Which is cool, people are fans and are gonna want us to believe we are a little better than we are. I get that. But we are not projected 7th/15 in the west and 14th/30 in the league by the unbiased sharp money for no reason. We are there because we are currently a ~middle of the league team, in terms of our actual level in games that matter, and have minimal chance of winning any playoff series. And when discussing the roster activity and teambuilding strategy of the team, I prefer to base it on a neutral external POV on where the team is, rather than a rose tinted internal one.
There are no guarantees for sure -- but Ball was objectively a dynamo on offense last year, one of the absolute best in the league and the Wolves should pile up a lot of wins when Ball and Ant are on the floor together.
