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STOCK MARKET: Let's talk stocks and investing

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by SWTsig, Jun 2, 2008.

  1. adoo

    adoo Member

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    if it does not hold, then 540, then 520

    i m not making any moves, until the beginning of next quarter.
     
    Sajan likes this.
  2. Mango

    Mango Member

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    Meta

    The P/E looks acceptable for a Tech stock, but I don't know how you feel about trading it a month away from the Earnings release at the end of July. Some people avoid a stock during the window for earnings and other enjoy the rush during earnings.


    Change the chart setting to one year and a series of lower highs stands out.

    • August 2025
    • September 2026
    • October 2025
    • January 2026
    • April 2026
    • June 2026

    Change the Chart setting to five year and the Zoom in January 2024 stands out.

    Since it is Mid Day, I will us a X to account for the imprecision on the numbers for the Moving Averages.

    50 Day Moving Average: $60X.XX
    200 Day Moving Average: $64X.XX

    So still clearly in Death Cross territory.

    Death Cross

    What Is a Death Cross?
    The "death cross" market chart pattern refers to the drop of a short-term moving average—meaning the average of recent closing prices for a stock, stock index, commodity, or cryptocurrency over a set period of time—below a longer-term moving average. The most closely watched stock-market moving averages are the 50-day and the 200-day.

    Despite its ominous name, the death cross is not a market milestone worth dreading. Market history suggests it tends to precede a near-term rebound with above-average returns.

    Understanding a Death Cross

    The death cross only tells you that price action has deteriorated over a period a little longer than two months if the crossing is done by the 50-day moving average. (Moving averages exclude weekends and holidays when the market is closed.)

    Those convinced of the pattern's predictive power note the death cross preceded all the severe bear markets of the past century, including 1929, 1938, 1974, and 2008. That's an example of sample selection bias, expressed by using only the select data points helpful to the argued point. Cherry-picking those bear-market years ignores the many more numerous occasions when the death cross signaled nothing worse than a market correction.

    According to Fundstrat research cited in Barron's, the S&P 500 index was higher a year after the death cross about two-thirds of the time, averaging a gain of 6.3% over that span. That's well off the annualized gain of over 10% for the S&P 500 since 1926, but hardly a disaster in most instances.

    The track record of the death cross as a precursor of market gains is even more appealing over shorter time frames. From 1971 to 2022, the 22 instances in which the 50-day moving average of the Nasdaq Composite index fell below its 200-day moving average were followed by average returns of about 2.6% over the next month, 7.2% in three months, and 12.4% six months after the death cross, roughly double the typical Nasdaq return over those time frames, according to Nautilus Research.

    Intuitively, the death cross has tended to provide a more useful bearish market timing signal when occurring after market losses of 20% or more, because downward momentum in weak markets can indicate deteriorating fundamentals. But its historical track record makes clear the death cross is a coincident indicator of market weakness rather than a leading one.


    Overall, the MAG 7 stocks haven't been having a good time recently.

    'Magnificent 7' stocks are having a dreadful year

    • Amazon
    • Apple
    • Google
    • Meta
    • Nvidia
    • Tesla
    • Microsoft

    With the exception of Nvidia, those stocks tend to be buyers - consumers of Tech Hardware which has been the Hot Sector lately.

    Watch this video to about 1:57 with a focus on 1:35 - : 1:57.
     
  3. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Atomic Playboy

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  4. adoo

    adoo Member

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    it's 5 min before closing, looks like meta open and close ~ 581, a doji candlestick, looks like "+"
    4 trading days ago, there was also a doji candle stock.

    doji candlesticks foreshadows a change in trend
     
    Sajan likes this.
  5. Sajan

    Sajan Member

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    Meta Platforms was surging in premarket trading Wednesday on a report it plans to build a cloud business to sell excess artificial-intelligence computing capacity.

    Meta hopes to generate revenue from selling excess computing power to third parties, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

    Meta didn't immediately respond to a request for comment from Barron's.

    Shares of Meta rose 6.2% in premarket trading.

    It's bad news for so-called neoclouds that are also in the business of selling AI computing power. CoreWeave fell 9% and Nebius dropped 9.8% in the premarket session.

    This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
     
  6. adoo

    adoo Member

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    this explains all the doji candlesticks in recent trading days
     
  7. adoo

    adoo Member

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    yesterday
    today,

    NVDA Reveals New Revenue Sharing Plan for AI Startups—backing smaller artificial-intelligence companies
    in exchange for a cut of their revenue. the arrangement makes for a win-win situation.

    Nvidia framed the program as a response to a structural shift in AI demand, from model development toward production inference workloads that require continuously operating infrastructure at scale. The company said emerging AI companies have historically had limited access to capital-intensive compute resources, with even long-term commitments insufficient to unlock financing.

    after a steep decline from 240 to 190, the chart shows strong support ~ 200 dma, with several dojis, suggesting that
    a bounce off the 200 MA is forthcoming, up up and away​
     
    #21087 adoo, Jul 2, 2026 at 8:39 AM
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2026 at 8:59 AM
  8. adoo

    adoo Member

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    on the heels of a 40-point stock price drop since 1 June, 4 weeks before the next earnings release on 30 July,
    here are recent developments on AAPL

    AAPL has
    • confirmed it will raise prices on multiple products — including MacBooks, iPads, and other devices — to offset soaring memory and storage chip costs driven by unprecedented demand from AI data centers
    • reportedly asked the US government for approval to buy memory chips from blacklisted Chinese supplier ChangXin Memory Technologies during an AI driven chip shortage.

    these developments have led to these technical signs
    • the previously declining 20 DMA is bouncing off the 50 DMA
      • 50 dma is a strong support level, 20 dma is ready for lift off
    • the SAR has confirmed a change in direction, to the upside
    • MACD is rapidly approaching zero, above which indicates a lift off

    i have a bullish view on AAPL heading to the next earnings on 30 July

    w AAPL trading ~~~308. bought the 320 strike CALL, oct expiration, at $13.85.
    think that it wil be way above 320 just before earnings.
     
    #21088 adoo, Jul 3, 2026 at 9:37 AM
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2026 at 10:03 AM

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