Xavier Neyens (12, 3-run) and Carlos Cauro (4, solo) both went deep for Fayetteville. Unfortunately for the Woodpeckers, those home runs were their only source of offense as they lost 11-4 today. Ryan Mathiesen was the only Fayetteville pitcher who turned in a scoreless outing; he allowed a hit, walked two, and struck out three in 2.2 innings.
Might be a blessing in disguise if he ends up being an effective reliever. Especially with Abreu set to hit free agency amid a down first half for him. Whether Ullola was going to be a starter or not, he had to try to harness his control… especially if he had any chance at being a starter. The Astros no longer had the luxury of waiting. Here’s to hoping he can maximize the opportunity
I imagine that Ullola had stuff, but no mechanics when he first signed. That's why the Astros deployed him as a starter for as long as possible, even when it was obvious that he did not have a starting pitcher's command. He needed to repeat the mechanics that were drilled into him or he'd be walking everyone, or hitting everyone, or throwing a wild pitch every 5-6 pitches when he eventually had to transition to the bullpen permanently.
Jack Moss and Marcus Brown both had 3-hit days for Asheville. Moss also drove in two; the first RBI was when he beat a double play attempt that allowed Chase Call to score. The other RBI came on a triple.
I didn’t like the pick when it was made - just didn’t see anything worthy of a top 2 round pick. Didn’t like him in the minors either. I haven’t viewed him as a good prospect in some time. Astros and Brown know far better than I do - but still pissed me off.
Gillis is one of nearly a dozen prospects to watch for Rule 5 protection (assuming there even is a Rule 5 draft this year). Ethan Pecko is the only guy guaranteed to be added, but Gillis, Jackson Nezuh, and James Hicks are other Rule 5 eligible SP who can pitch their way into the majors this year. Alex Santos, Michael Knorr, and Julio Rodriguez are RP to watch. Jose Fleury and Hudson Leach have pitched their way out of consideration. On the position player side, Pascanel Ferreras is making a strong case as he has success in AAA. Trevor Austin, Tyler Whitaker, and Yamal Encarnacion are less likely but all guys having some success in AA that could be in the mix with strong performances over July and August.
Hell, Billy Wagner started his first 70 games in the minors and everybody knew he was the future closer
Astros keep picking catchers well ahead of where they were projected. It’s like they somehow think they have the track record of finding diamonds in the rough; but they haven’t found a single good catcher with valuable top picks. Those 1st and 2nd round picks are valuable for building a teams farm system. Taking a flyer on a catcher who isn’t even seen as an elite prospect in anyone’s eyes but the Astros is a head scratcher.
I think the Astros think that catcher defense is important enough to override any offensive deficiencies. Janek was viewed as easily the best defensive catcher in the class. Lee also had a strong defensive rep. But I was disappointed that neither of them signed for well below slot because both were moderately overdrafted (Lee more than Janek). That said, I think we are writing Janek’s obituary way prematurely; he is only 23 and having a lost year due to injury. There is nothing we can really take away from his 2026 stats so far. His 2025 stats were mildly disappointing but he was still an above average hitter for that league who displayed good defense, had double digit HR, and stole 30 bases. Let’s wait and see how he does if/when he comes back this season.
Posting an updated list for June since there's no minors today. Spoiler: Snake Diggit's Astros Top 30 Prospects: June 2026 Update Rank Pos Name (Preseason Rank) Grade: Note OF Kevin Alvarez (2) 55+: Lack of walks is only blemish on a very good season so far. Alvarez should be a firm Top 100 prospect. 3B Xavier Neyens (3) 55: Confirming his 70+ grade power and walking a ton. His k rate is concerning as expected, but this is an extremely high ceiling prospect who is posting a 152 wRC+ in A ball as a teenager. P Ethan Pecko (10) 50+: Has put together a string of excellent starts in June and projects as a solid #4 with upside to be a #3. Probably Houston’s best/most likely trade chip but if he isn’t traded he will likely be called up later this season. IF Albert Fermin (18) 50: A huge jump largely informed by what Kevin Alvarez did last season. He is striking out in the DSL more than Alvarez did, but he has more defensive value. This might prove a hasty bump if he doesn’t get put in full season ball next year. P Bryce Mayer (9) 50: Excellent k rate but the walk rate is not good and he’s also been prone to the long ball. Only ranked this high because Houston's system is so shallow at the top. In a good farm system he'd be no higher than 10th. The draft should slot in 4-5 guys ahead of him. Not outside the realm of possibility for him to reach the majors this season, but also positioning himself to be a top trade chip at the deadline. C Walker Janek (4) 45+: I have decided to cut him a bit of a break because of his injury. Hopefully he will reset once he gets back to AA off rehab and post some good numbers. P Miguel Ullola (8) 45+: While the move to the bullpen was a bad sign for his ceiling, it has been a great sign for his short term value/floor. He was dominant out of the pen before getting called up, adding a tick to his elite fastball. Easily has elite closer upside. P Jagger Beck (HM) 45+: Starting to generate some hype so this is a big bump for him. Teenage pitchers who can hold their own in full season ball have a good track record and velo won't be a problem for him. This could be a really good prospect. P Alimber Santa (HM) 45+: Reached the majors and looks like a potential leverage arm. OF Ethan Frey (5) 45+: 30% k rate and not much power, so his stock is down a lot from the beginning of the season. Hopefully a breakout is coming. P Cole Hertzler (14) 45+: Bad start in AA but it’s still early. C/1B Jason Schiavone (HM) 40+: 70+ grade power and looks like he can stick at catcher. The ultimate test of whether a very high k rate can be overcome by defense and power. His 29% k rate in AA is actually a pleasant surprise. P Ryan Forcucci (12) 45+: Disastrous results so far and is now on the Development list, but I have decided to cut him some slack given his long layoff. Probably just an acclimation year and hopefully a breakout next season. OF Lucas Spence (17) 45+: Had a big rebound in June and was promoted to AAA. Could be a trade chip or surprise call-up. I’m not sold on him as more than a reserve OF but he has value. He has looked good in the few AAA games he’s played. OF Joseph Sullivan (11) 45+: Bit of a rebound in June, he is projecting to more of a 4th OF role, but has a very high ceiling because of his tools and athleticism. P Jackson Nezuh (21) 45+: Had a pretty good June and his k and bb %’s are where they need to be, but he has been homer prone. Keep an eye on him because he could break out quickly. If I was another team, this is a prospect I would ask for in a lesser trade. P Javier Perez (27) 45: One of the few pitchers in the system with control who is also getting strikeouts. Need to see him do it in higher levels. OF Anthony Huezo (15) 45: Putting him back up the list. He’s lowered his k rate just a bit and he’s showing the power/speed combination that gives him such a high ceiling. His k rate is still a pretty big red flag but he appears to be making progress and when you add in the context of his age, he is a solid prospect. IF Pascanel Ferreras (HM) 45: Recently promoted to AAA, guys with his profile usually get at least some time in the majors. Low ceiling player but could be a decent bench piece. He’s 87 pa into AAA and posting really solid numbers; he’s got a 107 max EV so there’s at least moderate power there. SS Max Holy (HM) 45: Some of the hype from his breakout is fading as he posts middling numbers in AA, but he’s still a good prospect. Speed, defense, and baserunning give him a high floor. Lack of power and strikeout rate give him a low ceiling. One of a very small number of prospects in Houston’s system who can legitimately play shortstop. C/1B Will Bush (20) 45: Cooled off a ton; his k rate is up to 33% and he’s not hitting for power. Still, he’s a decent prospect as long as he continues to get looks at catcher. If he ends up as 1B/DH only, his stock takes a big hit with so much pressure on his bat. C Jase Mitchell (16) 45: Posting one of the highest walk rates in minor league history. That combined with his defensive profile and athleticism/tools makes him well worth tracking, but he’s not hitting for power, he’s striking out a bunch, and he’ll need to get to full season ball before we can really get any kind of idea of his projection. P Brett Gillis (HM) 45: I like him. Has had a great June and could be very underrated. P Brandon McPherson (HM) 45: Reached AAA and he looks just ok, but he can throw 100 and was really good in AA. 1B/OF Drew Brutcher (NR) 40+: This could look really stupidly low; I tend to be really hard on guys with no pedigree and defensive limitations. But he is 100+ pa into AA and is walking as much as he strikes out and has begun to show some power. If his current AA production sustains through the season, he will be a really interesting prospect to watch next spring as someone who could end up getting called up. IF Randy Arias (HM) 40+: I feel like he’s being ignored in deference to Albert Fermin, but he is also a big bonus signee dominating the DSL. He doesn’t have Fermin’s power projection, but he’s got more defensive value and he’s currently striking out less than Fermin. His placement next season will have a big impact on his stock, but he could jump up really really quickly. P James Hicks (22) 40+: One of the most middling pitchers in the system who is actually a prospect. He is too homer prone for a guy with his stuff. Trending down. P Juan Fraide (HM) 40+: New to my top 30, I like what he’s doing in Fayetteville. P Kellan Oakes (HM) 40+: Recently promoted to High A, won't know much until he gets to AA but so far so good. P Nick Potter (25) 40+: Walks are a problem as expected but with his velo he's got a big time ceilng. Graduated: 2B/OF Brice Matthews (1), P AJ Blubaugh (6), OF Zach Cole (7); Matthews looks like a fringe-regular or luxury bench player, Blubaugh looks like a Devenski-style bulk reliever who can moonlight in leverage, and Cole is still a boom/bust guy whose fuse is burning. Fell off: P Alonzo Tredwell (13), OF Caden Powell (19), OF Luis Baez (23), P Hudson Leach (24), P Gabel Pentecost (26), P Parker Smith (28), P Ramsey David (29), IF Nick Monistere (30); Tredwell, Pentecost, and Monistere got hurt; Smith, Ramsey, and Leach have been ineffective; Powell could easily fit in the Top 30 and had a great June; Baez busted and was released. Honorable Mention: C: Collin Price, Carlos Cauro, Luis De Leon, Alexi Quiroz, August Cuneo, Arturo Flores; Price reached the majors, Cauro and Flores are showing well in A ball, De Leon is dominating the FCL. IF: Yamal Encarnacion, Alberto Hernandez, Juan Rojas, Brayan Mendez, Alejandro Nunez, German Ramirez, Trevor Austin, Nick Monistere, Juan Rojas, Anderson Areinamo, Sebastien Mendez, Cameron Sisneros, Zach Daudet, Kyle Walker, Sami Manzueta, Landon Arroyos, Waner Luciano, Brandon Nigh, Santiago Martinez, Camilo Diaz, Sandro Pereira, Marcus Brown, Pablo Martinez; Encarnacion, Austin, Manzueta, and Nunez could fit in the Top 30; this is a deeper group of 4th tier IF prospects than Houston has had in a while. OF: Tyler Whitaker, Yensi De La Cruz, Ethan Wagner, Luis Rives, Carlos Sandoval, Cesar Hernandez, Caden Powell, Justin Thomas, Anthony Millan, Jack Valbrune, Kenni Gomez, Esteban Romero, Imanol Feliz, Amauri Ramirez, DJ Newman, Juan Sierra, Nehomar Ochoa Jr., Eduardo Perez, Elijah Farley; another deep group and many of these guys wouldn’t look out of place in the top 30; I really wanted to fit Yensi De La Cruz on the list but couldn’t justify it but he could be a very underrated prospect; Whitaker’s stock is steadily rising since the beginning of the season. Houston's farm had a big month in June, especially on the position player side. Their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th tier depth is really showing up and lots of guys are moving up from “non-prospects” into “worth tracking” and from “fringey prospect” to “legit prospect”. The failure to launch of Ethan Frey and Ryan Forcucci, and injuries to Walker Janek and Alonzo Tredwell are bummers, but that's been more than offset by breakouts from other prospects and by Kevin Alvarez and Xavier Neyens living up to their hype. Most of their pitchers are still walking too many guys and most of their hitters are still striking out too much, but generally they have a ton of boom/bust types on the position side well-complemented by high floor bench/utility types. The DSL looks like it might have the best overall crop of position player prospects in over a decade. Alvarez and Neyens are still the only clear elite talents, but Albert Fermin’s trajectory is following Alvarez’s. The draft will add some good talent, and after that Houston should field an average farm system; if they continue June’s momentum and don’t gut it at the deadline, it could be an above average system.
@Snake Diggit Thanks for the great , detailed post . I think your ranking of schiavone is accurate, but he is an interesting guy to me . His upside is one of the higher I've seen in our system in a while . A guy who can handle catcher , steal 20 bases (if he gets on base of) , and hit 20+ hr is incredibly rare . And generally playing catcher for tons of games as you get older will sap your speed . Still , schiavone has power . Looking at his big picture stats , his power has dropped in AA (as to be expected) . It looked like he hit some HR's immediately and now hasn't hit A HR or stolen a bag in a while . That's ok . Hes getting some time at 1b and dh /pinch hitter . Looks like we are lightening his load a little bit which is OK . Catcher is arduous . Just like pitcher. The guys in the minors are younger , but it's not like they get as much individual attention from athletic staff as MLB players do. Imo is schiavone can have another great month , day mid July to August , and show hes made adjustments... Then his stock will skyrocket. He clearly mastered his league , and is holding on at the next level. If he can adjust and dominate then he will be a real threat . Maybe it's hyperbole because 25 /25 guys come along all the time ... But not at catcher . If he can have a month with like a 950 ops in AA , he will remain a top 10 ish prospect in this system , even after the draft . At least that's my amateur opinion
There seemed to be pitch data for the FCL squad today for some reason. I don't know that there's a way to find the spin rates and movement data, but Adrian Ardines sat 91-92 up to 93.7 while Angel Peralta was 93-95, with 95.6 being the highest I saw for him. In his two strikeouts, Jase Mitchell fouled off a combined six 2-strike pitches. I wonder if Areinamo's lack of production come this season comes from a propensity to hit a lot of flyballs without the power to get them over the fence. He didn't swing and miss in today's game, but hit a ~300 ft flyball 3 different times today.
In the last 20 years the only teenagers to have .440 OBP and 150 wRC+ in A ball (min 200pa) are: Mike Trout (hall of famer) James Wood (all star) Bo Bichette (all star) Jordan Lawler (145 wRC+ in majors this year) Oscar Taveras (MLB Top 10 prospect who tragically passed away at 22) Jaff Decker (AAAA player) Slade Caldwell (2025; currently middling in High A) Xavier Neyens (2026)
