Anyone have any insight on how Schiavone has gone from hitting 6 homers in 300 PA last season in A/A+ to hitting 21 already in 242 PA in A+/AA this season? Also, any insight on his defensive capabilities behind the plate? After a slow start in AA, his numbers are starting to get ridiculous there as well. The guy has 14 SB as well this season so clearly he has some speed on top of the power.
Not sure, but these are my thoughts on looking at his stats: He's being more aggressive and it's working. Called strike % is down significantly without a big increase in his swinging strike %. So his k % is down and those hits are going for HR. He's likely gotten in better shape and improved his bat speed and strength. He likely also changed launch angles that is turning doubles into HR. Either way, his first 74 pa in AA are extremely encouraging. K rate a non-deadly 28%, walk rate super high at 19%. The marginal difference in k rate is really important in terms of projecting MLB success. With his power and defensive value along with how many walks he generates, at a 20% k rate he projects as a superstar, 25% he's a star, 30% he's an everyday regular, 35% he's a solid bench player, and 40%+ he's unplayable. Those are MLB k rates so he'd need to be better than that in AA for those projections. But right now he is looking like he will be a valuable backup C who hits a lot of HR but could very well develop into an everyday guy especially if his defense is good which I'm not knowledgable about. Houston's 2nd and 3rd tiers had a good week. Ferreras, Austin, Encarnacion, Schiavone, Ochoa, Thomas, Powell, and Spence all looked good and are raising their stock. The FCL lineup is really talented. The Astros farm on the position player side is mainly tainted by disappointing seasons from Janek, Frey, and Sullivan; otherwise, this is a good system.
28% is much lower than what Cole and Matthews were doing in AA and they weren't walking at that rate. That first bullet point of yours is what gives me promise for the future. He's significantly cut his K rate from last year (36.3%) in addition to suddenly hitting for absurd power while playing at higher levels in the minors. I guess it ultimately comes down to his defense though. I think you already said it somewhere in this thread but the bar is much lower if he can be at least somewhat decent defensively behind the plate at the MLB level.
Right. If he is a stud defensive C (gamecalling, framing, blocking, fielding, throwing), then he’s probably an everyday caliber C even with a 35% k rate. In 2017 Mike Zunino put up a 4.4 win season with a 37% k rate and a 9% walk rate because he hit 25 HR and was very very good defensively. That kind of ceiling is totally in play for Schiavone, but only if he’s really good defensively, which i have no idea of how to judge/predict. I haven’t seen anyone anywhere mention him as an elite defender, but I have seen quotes of people saying he’s viable at C.
Astros released James Nelson from AAA. He was a signing from Indy ball who was formerly in the Marlins system. He got off to a great start, posting a .904 OPS in April, but it was downhill from there. In hopeful this move precedes Trevor Austin moving up to AAA.
I didn't take it as snide - I like talking about prospects, and that includes when I am wrong. As for Oakes, he has done better than I had expected. I think he is a long way from the big leagues, but he is a prospect at this point.
Miguel has the reputation of being hardheaded and he has been a lot of work for the Astros - but he supposedly has a love for baseball and that fastball is real, no one has ever been able to consistently hit it. I have fairly high hopes for him in the bullpen. I know that generally him going to the rotation is viewed as a bad thing (a good starter is better than a good reliever), but I think that he could be a weapon for 5-6 years pitching an inning at a time.
He is an interesting prospect. My observations: He struggles against off speed stuff, and that is why he will likely never have a high average. Having said that, he can cripple fastballs. His success depends on his ability to maximize the fastballs he gets and to work the count to force fastballs. He is doing a good job this year forcing pitchers to throw him fastballs. Defensively - he has an above average arm behind the plate. He is getting the ball to second base at 85-90 mph in game. He is average at his reaction speed behind the plate but at like 6'4" and with a broad base, he blocks well. He is considered a smart player, hard worker and very teachable. As for why the slow start last year? He did the same in high school and college. Some people need some time to adjust, and Schiavone has said he is someone that takes time to get comfortable. He isn't a top prospect because of the blind spots he has as a hitter. He isn't going to hit tough pitching with lots of movement and when he falls behind in the count, he can really struggle. However, the bread and butter of most pitchers is the fastball, and he can hit that in and out of the zone. He can hit good fastballs as well. He has started to show the ability to lay off breaking stuff out of the zone, and that has resulted in more fastballs and more success. As for the stolen bases, he isn't Tony Eusebio, but a lot of the stolen bases are because he has good instincts and we are seeing guys running a lot in the minors. For example, last I checked, Jacob Melton was stealing a base a game... so if someone wants to run in the minors, they can.
Albert Fermin went 2-3 and scored 3 runs. He's had a solid first week as a pro, going 7-19 with a couple of stolen bases, mostly out of the leadoff spot for the DSL Orange team. No RBIs yet, however.
Really liking the current DSL position player crop. Manzueta, Fermin, Arias, and Millan are the big ones but also Silverio, Ramirez, De La Cruz, P Martinez, Colon, Feliz, and Valbrune are all guys I’m watching. I haven’t seen Eduardo Perez play yet. It’s a bummer he doesn’t seem to be developing.
Corpus now has 5 pretty good pitching prospects in their rotation in Hertzler, Mayer, Nezuh, Gillis, and Hicks. None of them have been all that dominant but they all have good stuff (although Hicks trails the rest in that respect).
He's kind of a weird situation, in that he's under no rule 5 pressure at all, but he's already 26 and in AAA. I'm not sure the FB is impressive beyond the velocity, and it looks like the slider is his best swing and miss offering. He throws a reasonable amount of strikes already, could he be an impact player in the pen if he can sit upper 90s and ditch the less effective secondaries? Do they keep developing him as a starter until they're convinced he can't?
Looking at the savant data from his last start it looks like that’s what he did: ditch everything except the fb and slider. And it does look like his fb lacks movement. But if his slider really is a money pitch the he should still be a very good RP with that and a 100 mph straightball because it looks like he can throw strikes.
Recapping complex league action from earlier: - The FCL squad got no-hit by the Marlins... and won 3-2. Luis Quesada scored the first run on a wild pitch and drove in the second run with a sac fly. Jase Mitchell drove in the third and final run with a sac fly. - Brayan Mendez went 5-5 with 6 RBI in the DSL Blue team's 17-1 thrashing of the Reds. Mendez hit four doubles (three of them drove in a run) and a three-run homer, his 2nd of the season. Jesus Terán and Yuaxander Silveira hit their first home runs as pros. Terán is a 17-year-old catcher from Venezuela who signed in April, and Silveira is an 18-year-old OF from Cuba who signed last September. - Victor Jimenez, a 19-year-old RHP from Panama in his second season with the DSL Orange team, threw five shutout innings and allowed two hits, walked two, and struck out four, but the Orange team lost 1-0 to the Rays' Tampa Bay team. Jimenez has started off his season with two scoreless outings.
Mendez was the guy who hit a grand slam in his first pro AB. 6 XBH in his first 4 games is pretty crazy; for comparison Juan Rojas graduated after hitting 8 total last season. At 6'2" 195, I suspect he's more filled out than your average 17 year old, but it's certainly an impressive start to his career.
